GINC 250 / Africa's demographic & economic rise

Trend · rank 68 of 250

Africa's demographic & economic rise

Trade & InvestmentSociety & Culturedemographygeoeconomics

Africa's demographic and economic ascent as the source of much of the world's future workforce and consumption growth.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank68 of 250
Sensitivity24.3 · rank 22
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank24.9 · rank 203
Eigenvector6.9
Betweenness36.0
Links6 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite31.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
4HighDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
4HighEmerging middle classSociety & Culture193
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateBrain drain & talent migrationSociety & Culture92
3ModerateAgeing populationSociety & Culture106