GINC 250 / Shifting economic power

Trend · rank 6 of 250

Shifting economic power

Trade & InvestmentSociety & Culturegeoeconomics

The rebalancing of economic weight from West to East and towards a multipolar order.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank6 of 250
Sensitivity22.9 · rank 28
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank79.7 · rank 7
Eigenvector85.0
Betweenness60.0
Links33 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite59.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
5Very highGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
5Very highGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
4HighSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
4HighExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
4HighEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
4HighDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
4HighChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
4HighFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
4HighInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
4HighRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
4HighGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
4HighAfrica's demographic & economic riseSociety & Culture68
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModeratePharmaceutical supply concentrationHealth & Modern Science40
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateReshoring & localised manufacturingIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation75
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
3ModerateRegional trade agreementsGeoeconomics & Statecraft139