GINC 250 / Emerging middle class

Trend · rank 193 of 250

Emerging middle class

Trade & InvestmentSociety & Culturedemographyinequality

Hundreds of millions of new middle-income consumers, concentrated in Asia and Africa, redirecting global demand.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank193 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 81
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank20.5 · rank 217
Eigenvector0.6
Betweenness2.4
Links6 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite16.9

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAfrica's demographic & economic riseSociety & Culture68
3ModerateInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
3ModerateInformal employmentSociety & Culture113
3ModerateCare economy & unpaid workSociety & Culture201
3ModerateGender equality & inclusionSociety & Culture219