Sensitivity and network position
Rank110 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 79
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank38.6 · rank 115
Eigenvector32.6
Betweenness6.3
Links14 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite26.3
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 5Very high | Hybrid campaign by a hostile state S06 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 5Very high | Great-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
| 4High | Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 3Moderate | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | A Economic and trade |
| 3Moderate | Maritime chokepoint closure S05 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 1Very low | Political legitimacy crisis S07 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 1Very low | Critical infrastructure collapse S12 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 0Not related | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Global financial crisis S03 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Mass displacement shock S08 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Energy supply shock S09 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Catastrophic disaster in the core S10 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Food and water system shock S11 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Rapid AI diffusion shock S13 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 0Not related | Pandemic with a novel pathogen S14 | E Health |
| 0Not related | Energy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Biomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗ | E Health |
| 0Not related | Coordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Emerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Middle East regional settlement S21 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Agricultural yield revolution S22 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Digital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 0Not related | Hundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | E Health |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Paradigm | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Very high | Rearmament & defence spending | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 37 |
| 5Very high | Drone & autonomous warfare | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 98 |
| 4High | Alliance realignment & burden-shifting | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 16 |
| 4High | Russia–NATO confrontation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 36 |
| 4High | Missile & long-range strike proliferation | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 49 |
| 4High | Nuclear & WMD proliferation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 60 |
| 4High | Defence industrial base & munitions | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 93 |
| 4High | Militarisation of space | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 104 |
| 4High | Arms control erosion | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 122 |
| 4High | Conscription & reserve mobilisation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 199 |
| 3Moderate | Great-power competition | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 1 |
| 3Moderate | Private military & proxy forces | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 38 |
| 3Moderate | Arctic & polar competition | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 87 |
| 3Moderate | Espionage & insider threat | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 145 |