GINC 250 / Censorship & surveillance

Trend · rank 189 of 250

Censorship & surveillance

Information & InfluenceSociety & Culturedata governancepolitics

State and corporate monitoring, scoring and control of what people say, see and may do, made cheaper and more complete by AI.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank189 of 250
Sensitivity11.8 · rank 146
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank29.4 · rank 172
Eigenvector2.1
Betweenness3.8
Links12 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite17.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighPlatform power over public discourseSociety & Culture167
4HighOnline harms & safetySociety & Culture243
3ModerateDeclining institutional trustSociety & Culture23
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateReligious & identity nationalismSociety & Culture140
3ModerateConspiracy movements & science denialSociety & Culture149
3ModerateSynthetic media & deepfakesSociety & Culture150
3ModerateElection integrity & interferenceSociety & Culture161
3ModerateDecline of independent journalismSociety & Culture165
3ModerateData protection & digital rightsTechnology & Financials166
3ModerateTransnational repression & diaspora politicsSociety & Culture177
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184