GINC 250 / Rule of law & judicial independence

Trend · rank 146 of 250

Rule of law & judicial independence

Governance & IntegritySociety & Cultureinstitutionspolitics

Pressure on courts, prosecutors and legal constraint on power, and the consequences for contracts, rights and elections.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank146 of 250
Sensitivity9.7 · rank 177
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank45.3 · rank 72
Eigenvector5.4
Betweenness7.5
Links18 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite22.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
1Very lowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
1Very lowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
5Very highCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
5Very highExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
5Very highCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184
4HighPolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
3ModerateCivil unrestSociety & Culture59
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateReligious & identity nationalismSociety & Culture140
3ModerateAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
3ModerateElection integrity & interferenceSociety & Culture161
3ModerateDecline of independent journalismSociety & Culture165
3ModerateTransnational repression & diaspora politicsSociety & Culture177
3ModerateOrganised crime & illicit economiesSociety & Culture181