GINC 250 / Official statistics & data capacity

Trend · rank 81 of 250

Official statistics & data capacity

Governance & IntegrityGeoeconomics & Statecraftinstitutionsdata governance

The quality and credibility of national data, on which budgets, health responses and creditors rely.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank81 of 250
Sensitivity18.1 · rank 56
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank51.0 · rank 46
Eigenvector5.9
Betweenness10.7
Links20 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite30.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
4HighDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
4HighPublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
4HighFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
4HighCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
4HighOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
4HighCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateGlobal health governanceHealth & Modern Science77
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateDigital public infrastructureTechnology & Financials103
3ModerateAdaptive regulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft118
3ModerateExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
3ModerateData protection & digital rightsTechnology & Financials166
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184