GINC 250 / Pollution & contaminants

Trend · rank 233 of 250

Pollution & contaminants

Human CapitalEnergy & Environmentnaturedisease

Air pollution and newly recognised contaminants such as PFAS and microplastics in water, soil and bodies.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank233 of 250
Sensitivity2.1 · rank 245
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank10.6 · rank 237
Eigenvector0.1
Betweenness24.2
Links5 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite9.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
1Very lowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateEarth system tipping pointsEnergy & Environment105
3ModerateChronic disease burdenHealth & Modern Science162
3ModerateZoonotic spillover & pandemic riskHealth & Modern Science163
3ModerateHeat stress & labour productivityEnergy & Environment196
3ModerateObesity & GLP-1 medicinesHealth & Modern Science230