GINC 250 / Frontier model concentration

Trend · rank 63 of 250

Frontier model concentration

Critical TechnologyTechnology & Financialsaigeoeconomics

The most capable AI models, and the compute to train them, held by a handful of firms in two countries.

Broken out from Artificial intelligence

Sensitivity and network position

Rank63 of 250
Sensitivity14.6 · rank 98
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank47.3 · rank 60
Eigenvector13.3
Betweenness34.9
Links20 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
6CriticalSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highCompute scaling & AI infrastructureTechnology & Financials17
5Very highOpen-weight AI diffusionTechnology & Financials134
4HighAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
4HighArtificial intelligenceTechnology & Financials27
4HighAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
4HighDigital sovereignty & data localisationTechnology & Financials50
4HighLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
4HighAutomated AI researchTechnology & Financials119
4HighHumanoid roboticsTechnology & Financials157
3ModerateAI-accelerated scienceTechnology & Financials56
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateCapital concentration in AIGeoeconomics & Statecraft74
3ModerateAI-mediated informationTechnology & Financials97
3ModerateAI agents & knowledge-work automationTechnology & Financials128
3ModerateGraduate labour market squeezeSociety & Culture132
3ModerateAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
3ModerateReskilling & education technologySociety & Culture169
3ModerateAutonomous vehiclesIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation183
3ModerateQuantum computingTechnology & Financials190
3ModerateCloud & edge computingTechnology & Financials191