GINC 250 / Quantum computing

Trend · rank 190 of 250

Quantum computing

Critical TechnologyTechnology & Financialscompute

Computation exploiting quantum effects to tackle problems intractable for classical machines, moving from laboratory demonstrations towards commercial readiness in areas such as cryptography and materials.

Broken out into Post-quantum cryptography transition

Sensitivity and network position

Rank190 of 250
Sensitivity4.9 · rank 227
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank29.2 · rank 173
Eigenvector11.1
Betweenness22.3
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite17.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
1Very lowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highPost-quantum cryptography transitionTechnology & Financials173
4HighAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
4HighCompute scaling & AI infrastructureTechnology & Financials17
4HighAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
4HighLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
4HighCloud & edge computingTechnology & Financials191
3ModerateArtificial intelligenceTechnology & Financials27
3ModerateDigital sovereignty & data localisationTechnology & Financials50
3ModerateFrontier model concentrationTechnology & Financials63
3ModerateData-centre power demandEnergy & Environment88
3ModerateAutomated AI researchTechnology & Financials119
3ModerateOpen-weight AI diffusionTechnology & Financials134
3ModerateHumanoid roboticsTechnology & Financials157