GINC 250 / Digital sovereignty & data localisation

Trend · rank 50 of 250

Digital sovereignty & data localisation

Critical TechnologyTechnology & Financialsdata governancegeoeconomics

Dependence on foreign providers for cloud, models, compute and standards, and the rules and investment to bring data and computing under national jurisdiction.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank50 of 250
Sensitivity21.5 · rank 33
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank41.8 · rank 95
Eigenvector13.9
Betweenness28.2
Links16 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite34.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
4HighDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
4HighAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
4HighFrontier model concentrationTechnology & Financials63
4HighLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
4HighData protection & digital rightsTechnology & Financials166
4HighCloud & edge computingTechnology & Financials191
3ModerateCompute scaling & AI infrastructureTechnology & Financials17
3ModerateArtificial intelligenceTechnology & Financials27
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModerateDigital public infrastructureTechnology & Financials103
3ModerateAutomated AI researchTechnology & Financials119
3ModerateOpen-weight AI diffusionTechnology & Financials134
3ModerateHumanoid roboticsTechnology & Financials157
3ModerateDigital & services tradeTechnology & Financials178
3ModerateQuantum computingTechnology & Financials190
3ModerateBiometricsTechnology & Financials237