GINC 250 / Smart manufacturing & digital twins

Trend · rank 234 of 250

Smart manufacturing & digital twins

Production & InnovationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationmanufacturingconnectivity

Connected, data-driven factories and building sites, with live virtual replicas of assets and processes used to simulate and optimise them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank234 of 250
Sensitivity6.3 · rank 208
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank8.8 · rank 240
Eigenvector1.3
Betweenness11.4
Links3 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite9.2

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateReshoring & localised manufacturingIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation75
3ModerateSmart cities & buildingsSociety & Culture174
3ModerateRobotics & automationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation198