GINC 250 / Biosecurity & dual-use biology

Trend · rank 203 of 250

Biosecurity & dual-use biology

National SecurityHealth & Modern Sciencebiotechconflict

Oversight of pathogens research, synthesis and laboratories as the tools of biology become cheap and widely held.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank203 of 250
Sensitivity13.2 · rank 119
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank20.4 · rank 218
Eigenvector0.2
Betweenness0.0
Links6 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite15.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
5Very highHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
1Very lowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighSynthetic biology & biomanufacturingHealth & Modern Science158
3ModerateRegional medicines manufacturingHealth & Modern Science127
3ModerateModern vaccinesHealth & Modern Science133
3ModerateAI drug developmentHealth & Modern Science142
3ModerateGene editing & cell therapiesHealth & Modern Science182
3ModeratePrecision medicine & oncologyHealth & Modern Science209