GINC 250 / Research & development intensity

Trend · rank 136 of 250

Research & development intensity

Production & InnovationGeoeconomics & Statecraftmanufacturinginstitutions

How much nations and firms invest in research, and how quickly results reach production.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank136 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 94
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank28.0 · rank 181
Eigenvector7.2
Betweenness20.1
Links10 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite23.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
3ModerateAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
3ModerateAdaptive regulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft118
3ModerateRegional medicines manufacturingHealth & Modern Science127
3ModerateAI drug developmentHealth & Modern Science142
3ModerateRobotics & automationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation198
3ModerateBusiness dynamism & start-up formationGeoeconomics & Statecraft227