Scenarios 2027 / Results / S14

Load test · S14 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Pandemic with a novel pathogen

E HealthScenario record

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation−0.68median change in index, points
Hardest hit−1.01Monaco
Lose a domain band166of 197 nations
Worth of best practice+0.25mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.38Canada: −0.51North America mean: −0.45United StatesEurope 42France: −0.46United Kingdom: −0.43Germany: −0.46Netherlands: −0.58Sweden: −0.55Switzerland: −0.53Norway: −0.54Finland: −0.56Denmark: −0.59Spain: −0.58Italy: −0.58Belgium: −0.67Austria: −0.59Poland: −0.64Ireland: −0.66Portugal: −0.67Czechia: −0.71Estonia: −0.72Luxembourg: −0.80Lithuania: −0.75Greece: −0.80Hungary: −0.78Slovenia: −0.75Romania: −0.70Slovakia: −0.76Latvia: −0.80Iceland: −0.74Croatia: −0.78Serbia: −0.77Bulgaria: −0.86Malta: −0.94Cyprus: −0.84Liechtenstein: −0.67North Macedonia: −0.89Montenegro: −0.91Albania: −0.82Monaco: −1.01Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.88Andorra: −0.91San Marino: −0.98Kosovo: −0.93Holy See: −0.74Europe mean: −0.72MonacoSan MarinoChina 1China: −0.42China mean: −0.42ChinaIndo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.46South Korea: −0.51Singapore: −0.57Australia: −0.46Taiwan: −0.61New Zealand: −0.55Malaysia: −0.72Thailand: −0.69Indonesia: −0.57Vietnam: −0.68Philippines: −0.58Mongolia: −0.85Brunei: −0.88Fiji: −0.83Cambodia: −0.75North Korea: −0.95Myanmar: −0.72Papua New Guinea: −0.58Laos: −0.77Samoa: −0.65Tonga: −0.71Timor-Leste: −0.66Vanuatu: −0.61Solomon Islands: −0.66Palau: −0.92Marshall Islands: −0.92Micronesia: −0.70Kiribati: −0.81Tuvalu: −0.86Nauru: −0.96Indo-Pacific mean: −0.71South Asia 8India: −0.44Pakistan: −0.54Sri Lanka: −0.55Bangladesh: −0.59Nepal: −0.59Maldives: −0.77Bhutan: −0.71Afghanistan: −0.54South Asia mean: −0.59Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.44Türkiye: −0.49United Arab Emirates: −0.54Saudi Arabia: −0.47Qatar: −0.55Egypt: −0.40Iran: −0.55Oman: −0.67Kuwait: −0.69Jordan: −0.68Bahrain: −0.75Iraq: −0.62Lebanon: −0.93Palestine: −0.65Syria: −0.58Yemen: −0.51Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.59EgyptAfrica 53South Africa: −0.60Morocco: −0.71Mauritius: −0.71Tunisia: −0.77Nigeria: −0.62Kenya: −0.47Ghana: −0.68Algeria: −0.71Senegal: −0.63Botswana: −0.76Namibia: −0.75Rwanda: −0.49Tanzania: −0.54Ethiopia: −0.48Uganda: −0.49Côte d'Ivoire: −0.61Seychelles: −0.85Zambia: −0.68Cabo Verde: −0.80Angola: −0.74Cameroon: −0.64Zimbabwe: −0.58Mozambique: −0.68Benin: −0.61Togo: −0.63Gabon: −0.91Madagascar: −0.66Malawi: −0.55Eswatini: −0.65Sierra Leone: −0.59Mauritania: −0.80Burkina Faso: −0.59Lesotho: −0.76Mali: −0.64Gambia: −0.80Djibouti: −0.95Congo: −0.81Guinea: −0.69Niger: −0.47Libya: −1.01Liberia: −0.69DR Congo: −0.73São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.68Equatorial Guinea: −0.80Sudan: −0.60Burundi: −0.59Comoros: −0.59Chad: −0.52Guinea-Bissau: −0.60Eritrea: −0.64Central African Rep.: −0.64Somalia: −0.74South Sudan: −0.70Africa mean: −0.67LibyaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.58Mexico: −0.65Chile: −0.69Argentina: −0.69Colombia: −0.68Peru: −0.71Uruguay: −0.78Costa Rica: −0.76Panama: −0.77Dominican Republic: −0.78Ecuador: −0.75Trinidad & Tobago: −0.77Jamaica: −0.78Cuba: −0.69Paraguay: −0.80El Salvador: −0.86Guatemala: −0.67Barbados: −0.66Bahamas: −0.85Bolivia: −0.77Honduras: −0.78Venezuela: −0.98Guyana: −0.73Nicaragua: −0.83Antigua & Barbuda: −0.74Grenada: −0.81Suriname: −0.88Belize: −0.74Dominica: −0.87Saint Lucia: −0.76Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.78Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.82Haiti: −0.68Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.76Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.47Ukraine: −0.62Kazakhstan: −0.55Georgia: −0.70Belarus: −0.81Azerbaijan: −0.63Armenia: −0.78Moldova: −0.63Uzbekistan: −0.56Kyrgyzstan: −0.58Tajikistan: −0.45Turkmenistan: −0.55Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.61
Lowest: Monaco, Libya, San Marino. Highest: China, Egypt, United States.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.38France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.46United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.43Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.46Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.46South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.51China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.42Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.58Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.55Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.57Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.51Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.46Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.53Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.54Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.56Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.44Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.61Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.59Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.58Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.58Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.67New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.55Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.59India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.44Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.64Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.47Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.49Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.66United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.54Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.58Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.67Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.71Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.72Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.72Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.47Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.65Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.80South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.60Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.75Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.69Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.69Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.80Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.78Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.75Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.70Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.76Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.57Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.80Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.68Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.74Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.78Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.62Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.55Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.71Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.69Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.68Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.40Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.77Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.86Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.94Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.58Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.71Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.78Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.84Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.55Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.55Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.71Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.67Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.54Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.76Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.77Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.70Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.69Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.68Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.62Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.75Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.55Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.67Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.47Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.77Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.68Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.71Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.81Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.78Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.63Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.75Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.59Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.77Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.78North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.89Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.63Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.91Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.63Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.78Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.82Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.76Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.75Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.69Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.49Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.56Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −1.01Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.54Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.88Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.80Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.85Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.48El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.86Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.67Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.88Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.66Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.49Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.61Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.85Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.85Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.83Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.91Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.77Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.78San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.98Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.59Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.68Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.75Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.58Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.80Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.93Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.62Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.93Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.77Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.74Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.98Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.73Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.64Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.83Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.74Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.58North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −0.95Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.68Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.61Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.63Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.81Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.88Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.74Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.45Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.91Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.71Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.66Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.72Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.87Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.76Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.78Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.58Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.55Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.82Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.65Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.65Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.77Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.59Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.80Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.55Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.65Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.59Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.76Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.64Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.80Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.71Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.95Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.81Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.69Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.47Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −1.01Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.66Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.69Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.61Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.66DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.73São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.68Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.92Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.80Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.60Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.59Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.92Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.70Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.59Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.52Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.58Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.81Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.86Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.60Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.68Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.64Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.96Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.74Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.64Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.51Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.74Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.54South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.70United StatesChinaEgyptMonacoSan MarinoLibya
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Human Capital−0.92
Governance & Integrity−0.87
Information & Influence−0.81
Financial Strength−0.81
Trade & Investment−0.79
Production & Innovation−0.78
Critical Technology−0.53
Strategic Infrastructure−0.38
National Security−0.29

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

−1.3−1.0−0.8−0.5−0.30.0Change in capability index, pointsMonacoMonaco, no response: −1.41Monaco, current plans: −1.01Monaco, best practice: −0.64LibyaLibya, no response: −1.15Libya, current plans: −1.01Libya, best practice: −0.52San MarinoSan Marino, no response: −1.26San Marino, current plans: −0.98San Marino, best practice: −0.58VenezuelaVenezuela, no response: −1.17Venezuela, current plans: −0.98Venezuela, best practice: −0.52NauruNauru, no response: −1.05Nauru, current plans: −0.96Nauru, best practice: −0.49North KoreaNorth Korea, no response: −1.13North Korea, current plans: −0.95North Korea, best practice: −0.52DjiboutiDjibouti, no response: −1.09Djibouti, current plans: −0.95Djibouti, best practice: −0.48MaltaMalta, no response: −1.49Malta, current plans: −0.94Malta, best practice: −0.65KosovoKosovo, no response: −1.15Kosovo, current plans: −0.93Kosovo, best practice: −0.52LebanonLebanon, no response: −1.15Lebanon, current plans: −0.93Lebanon, best practice: −0.51PalauPalau, no response: −1.05Palau, current plans: −0.92Palau, best practice: −0.47Marshall IslandsMarshall Islands, no response: −1.03Marshall Islands, current plans: −0.92Marshall Islands, best practice: −0.46MontenegroMontenegro, no response: −1.24Montenegro, current plans: −0.91Montenegro, best practice: −0.55AndorraAndorra, no response: −1.20Andorra, current plans: −0.91Andorra, best practice: −0.54GabonGabon, no response: −1.08Gabon, current plans: −0.91Gabon, best practice: −0.48North MacedoniaNorth Macedonia, no response: −1.21North Macedonia, current plans: −0.89North Macedonia, best practice: −0.54Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina, no response: −1.13Bosnia & Herzegovina, current plans: −0.88Bosnia & Herzegovina, best practice: −0.51BruneiBrunei, no response: −1.16Brunei, current plans: −0.88Brunei, best practice: −0.52SurinameSuriname, no response: −1.04Suriname, current plans: −0.88Suriname, best practice: −0.47DominicaDominica, no response: −1.03Dominica, current plans: −0.87Dominica, best practice: −0.47
No responseCurrent plansBest practice
Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Weakest point
MonacoEuropeHigh 1.005.914.91−1.01−17.0▼ 621 · 4d30%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
LibyaAfricaHigh 0.783.011.99−1.01−33.7▼ 82812%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
San MarinoEuropeHigh 0.975.034.05−0.98−19.4▼ 521 · 3d24%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.764.553.58−0.98−21.4▼ 430 · 3d17%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.9 · Inception
NauruIndo-PacificHigh 0.821.961.01−0.96−48.6▼ 313 · 2d10%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 0.774.263.32−0.95−22.2▼ 421 · 1d19%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0 · Inception
DjiboutiAfricaHigh 0.783.202.25−0.95−29.7▼ 527 · 4d13%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
MaltaEuropeHigh 0.978.897.95−0.94−10.6▼ 127 · 4d37%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
KosovoEuropeHigh 0.794.703.77−0.93−19.8▼ 419 · 1d20%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
LebanonGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.754.663.73−0.93−19.9▼ 526 · 2d19%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.2 · Inception
PalauIndo-PacificHigh 0.782.841.92−0.92−32.4▼ 220 · 2d13%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.772.481.56−0.92−37.0▼ 414 · 2d12%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
MontenegroEuropeHigh 0.826.355.44−0.91−14.4▼ 315 · 5d27%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
AndorraEuropeHigh 0.915.154.25−0.91−17.6▼ 424 · 2d26%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
GabonAfricaHigh 0.753.943.02−0.91−23.2▼ 917 · 2d16%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
North MacedoniaEuropeHigh 0.806.615.72−0.89−13.4▼ 121 · 3d27%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception
Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeHigh 0.755.804.92−0.88−15.2▼ 316 · 4d23%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
BruneiIndo-PacificHigh 0.805.604.72−0.88−15.8▼ 320 · 3d25%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.754.043.16−0.88−21.7▼ 721 · 3d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.763.873.01−0.87−22.3▼ 617 · 3d18%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
BulgariaEuropeHigh 0.868.958.09−0.86−9.6▼ 123 · 3d35%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.9 · Nascent
El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.745.684.81−0.86−15.2▼ 423 · 4d24%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
TuvaluIndo-PacificHigh 0.732.121.26−0.86−40.5▼ 310 · 1d11%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
MongoliaIndo-PacificHigh 0.745.734.89−0.85−14.7▼ 412 · 2d25%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.5 · Inception
SeychellesAfricaHigh 0.795.274.42−0.85−16.1022 · 2d24%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.775.164.32−0.85−16.4▼ 321 · 1d22%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
CyprusEuropeHigh 0.838.517.67−0.84−9.9026 · 1d34%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
FijiIndo-PacificHigh 0.725.164.33−0.83−16.0▼ 121 · 2d21%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.694.373.53−0.83−19.1▼ 322 · 3d19%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AlbaniaEuropeHigh 0.736.135.31−0.82−13.4▼ 315 · 5d25%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.723.762.94−0.82−21.9▼ 417 · 3d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
BelarusRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.746.906.10−0.81−11.7▼ 225 · 3d30%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.714.043.23−0.81−20.0▼ 318 · 2d18%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
CongoAfricaHigh 0.653.192.38−0.81−25.4▼ 125 · 5d12%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
KiribatiIndo-PacificHigh 0.682.201.39−0.81−36.9▼ 116 · 1d11%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
LuxembourgEuropeHigh 0.9310.799.99−0.80−7.4▼ 320 · 4d44%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
GreeceEuropeHigh 0.8610.619.81−0.80−7.6▼ 12240%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
LatviaEuropeHigh 0.869.899.09−0.80−8.1031 · 3d40%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.1 · Nascent
ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.705.794.98−0.80−13.9▼ 120 · 2d25%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Cabo VerdeAfricaHigh 0.714.723.92−0.80−17.0▼ 121 · 3d20%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
MauritaniaAfricaHigh 0.643.582.78−0.80−22.3▼ 315 · 3d14%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
GambiaAfricaHigh 0.663.322.52−0.80−24.2▼ 119 · 4d15%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Equatorial GuineaAfricaHigh 0.652.802.00−0.80−28.7▲ 123 · 3d12%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
HungaryEuropeHigh 0.8810.519.73−0.78−7.4029 · 3d43%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.8 · Foundational
CroatiaEuropeHigh 0.819.538.75−0.78−8.2▼ 224 · 2d38%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.1 · Nascent
UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.788.547.77−0.78−9.1021 · 3d36%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.5 · Nascent
Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.706.826.04−0.78−11.4▼ 220 · 3d27%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception
ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.696.655.87−0.78−11.7016 · 3d27%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.3 · Inception
JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.706.245.47−0.78−12.4▲ 125 · 3d26%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.1 · Inception
HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.645.054.27−0.78−15.5027 · 5d20%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.673.833.06−0.78−20.3▼ 219 · 2d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
SerbiaEuropeHigh 0.788.978.19−0.77−8.6▼ 126 · 3d36%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.3 · Nascent
TunisiaAfricaHigh 0.727.716.94−0.77−10.0018 · 2d31%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.5 · Nascent
PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.727.176.40−0.77−10.8014 · 3d30%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.7 · Inception
Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.696.695.92−0.77−11.6028 · 2d27%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception
BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.655.114.34−0.77−15.0▲ 22021%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
MaldivesSouth AsiaHigh 0.694.623.85−0.77−16.7▲ 122 · 1d22%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
LaosIndo-PacificHigh 0.633.702.93−0.77−20.9▼ 218 · 2d15%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
SlovakiaEuropeHigh 0.8110.109.34−0.76−7.5▼ 127 · 4d40%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.1 · Nascent
Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.757.767.00−0.76−9.8026 · 4d35%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.7 · Inception
BotswanaAfricaHigh 0.686.085.32−0.76−12.5▼ 119 · 3d26%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.663.853.10−0.76−19.6021 · 2d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
LesothoAfricaHigh 0.633.432.67−0.76−22.1▼ 119 · 1d14%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
LithuaniaEuropeHigh 0.8710.7510.00−0.75−7.0022 · 2d44%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.5 · Foundational
SloveniaEuropeHigh 0.8510.489.73−0.75−7.2016 · 2d43%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.5 · Foundational
BahrainGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.687.326.57−0.75−10.2▼ 22229%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.5 · Inception
EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.676.766.01−0.75−11.1▼ 125 · 2d27%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.3 · Inception
NamibiaAfricaHigh 0.665.955.20−0.75−12.6▼ 517 · 2d25%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.5 · Inception
CambodiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.624.934.18−0.75−15.1020 · 2d19%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
IcelandEuropeHigh 0.849.638.89−0.74−7.7027 · 2d43%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
AngolaAfricaMedium 0.594.603.86−0.74−16.1▲ 315 · 1d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.654.363.62−0.74−16.9▲ 115 · 2d19%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.644.033.29−0.74−18.4▲ 116 · 1d18%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Holy SeeEuropeHigh 1.001.851.11−0.74−39.909 · 1d12%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
SomaliaAfricaMedium 0.581.620.88−0.74−45.7▼ 126%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.624.533.80−0.73−16.2▲ 317 · 1d19%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
DR CongoAfricaMedium 0.572.872.14−0.73−25.4022 · 5d11%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.1 · Inception
EstoniaEuropeHigh 0.8811.4910.76−0.72−6.3▼ 114 · 2d47%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Nascent
MalaysiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.8111.4810.77−0.72−6.2▲ 123 · 2d43%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
MyanmarIndo-PacificMedium 0.553.893.17−0.72−18.4019 · 3d14%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
CzechiaEuropeHigh 0.8611.5110.80−0.71−6.2019 · 4d47%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational
MoroccoAfricaHigh 0.729.368.65−0.71−7.6015 · 3d36%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
PeruLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.688.617.90−0.71−8.2024 · 2d33%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
MauritiusAfricaHigh 0.698.087.37−0.71−8.8▼ 119 · 2d34%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
AlgeriaAfricaHigh 0.646.966.25−0.71−10.2022 · 2d28%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
BhutanSouth AsiaHigh 0.623.933.22−0.71−18.0015 · 2d19%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
TongaIndo-PacificHigh 0.603.212.50−0.71−22.1▼ 118 · 3d15%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
RomaniaEuropeHigh 0.7410.169.46−0.70−6.9017 · 1d39%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational
GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.667.556.84−0.70−9.3024 · 2d31%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
MicronesiaIndo-PacificMedium 0.582.331.63−0.70−30.0▼ 212 · 1d12%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
South SudanAfricaMedium 0.561.380.67−0.70−51.1026%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
ThailandIndo-PacificHigh 0.7810.7010.00−0.69−6.5▲ 222 · 3d42%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.7 · Foundational
ChileLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.7710.619.92−0.69−6.5▲ 113 · 3d42%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.3 · Nascent
ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.729.258.56−0.69−7.4▼ 118 · 3d38%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 · Foundational
KuwaitGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.647.516.82−0.69−9.2021 · 2d31%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.7 · Inception
CubaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.695.955.26−0.69−11.6▼ 117 · 2d36%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.2 · Nascent
GuineaAfricaMedium 0.553.152.45−0.69−22.0▲ 116 · 5d13%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
LiberiaAfricaMedium 0.562.932.25−0.69−23.4▼ 116 · 5d13%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
VietnamIndo-PacificHigh 0.719.688.99−0.68−7.1021 · 2d38%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.9 · Foundational
ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.699.118.43−0.68−7.5▼ 120 · 3d36%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.9 · Nascent
JordanGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.647.506.81−0.68−9.101731%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.1 · Nascent
GhanaAfricaHigh 0.606.986.30−0.68−9.7014 · 1d27%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.5 · Nascent
ZambiaAfricaMedium 0.564.934.25−0.68−13.7▲ 21919%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.1 · Inception
MozambiqueAfricaMedium 0.554.123.44−0.68−16.6▼ 11417%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaMedium 0.572.852.17−0.68−23.8▲ 221 · 1d13%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.532.031.34−0.68−33.8088%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
BelgiumEuropeHigh 0.9513.4612.79−0.67−5.0026 · 4d55%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.7 · Transitional
PortugalEuropeHigh 0.8111.6811.01−0.67−5.8016 · 4d47%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.3 · Foundational
OmanGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.648.037.36−0.67−8.3▼ 122 · 1d32%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.5 · Inception
LiechtensteinEuropeHigh 0.657.226.55−0.67−9.3▼ 116 · 5d29%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.565.674.99−0.67−11.9▲ 415 · 2d22%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception
IrelandEuropeHigh 0.8412.0811.42−0.66−5.5019 · 2d49%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.7 · Transitional
BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.615.564.90−0.66−11.9▲ 213 · 3d24%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
MadagascarAfricaMedium 0.523.903.24−0.66−17.0▲ 45 · 1d16%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception
Timor-LesteIndo-PacificMedium 0.552.982.33−0.66−22.0▲ 217 · 2d13%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificMedium 0.552.912.25−0.66−22.6▲ 213 · 2d14%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.7310.8510.20−0.65−6.0021 · 2d42%Labour & Employment 8.5 · Foundational
PalestineGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.523.723.06−0.65−17.6▲ 410 · 2d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.1 · Inception
EswatiniAfricaMedium 0.543.713.06−0.65−17.5▲ 41116%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
SamoaIndo-PacificMedium 0.563.482.83−0.65−18.6018 · 3d16%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
PolandEuropeHigh 0.7912.3911.76−0.64−5.1▼ 116 · 2d48%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 · Transitional
CameroonAfricaMedium 0.514.393.75−0.64−14.7▲ 112 · 1d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception
MaliAfricaMedium 0.513.412.77−0.64−18.7▲ 118 · 3d14%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
EritreaAfricaMedium 0.502.011.37−0.64−31.8▲ 211 · 1d9%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Central African Rep.AfricaMedium 0.501.661.03−0.64−38.3077%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.576.796.16−0.63−9.3▲ 213 · 1d28%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
SenegalAfricaMedium 0.556.425.79−0.63−9.8▲ 125 · 2d26%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.576.345.71−0.63−10.0▲ 120 · 4d28%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
TogoAfricaMedium 0.514.053.43−0.63−15.401416%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
UkraineRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.649.408.79−0.62−6.6023 · 1d38%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
NigeriaAfricaMedium 0.557.436.81−0.62−8.3017 · 3d28%Population Health 3.1 · Nascent
IraqGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.504.694.07−0.62−13.3▲ 31719%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
TaiwanIndo-PacificHigh 0.8614.0313.42−0.61−4.3022 · 4d55%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established
Côte d'IvoireAfricaMedium 0.505.424.81−0.61−11.2▲ 215 · 1d21%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
BeninAfricaMedium 0.504.093.48−0.61−14.9▲ 112 · 1d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
VanuatuIndo-PacificMedium 0.512.932.31−0.61−20.9▲ 31514%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
South AfricaAfricaHigh 0.6710.7710.17−0.60−5.6▲ 11642%Population Health 8.2 · Foundational
SudanAfricaMedium 0.442.612.01−0.60−23.1▲ 314 · 1d9%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Guinea-BissauAfricaMedium 0.482.071.47−0.60−29.0▲ 216 · 1d9%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
DenmarkEuropeHigh 0.9013.9413.36−0.59−4.2014 · 2d58%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.9 · Transitional
AustriaEuropeHigh 0.8112.8112.21−0.59−4.6022 · 2d53%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.2 · Transitional
BangladeshSouth AsiaMedium 0.536.736.14−0.59−8.7▲ 31728%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.5 · Nascent
NepalSouth AsiaMedium 0.494.964.37−0.59−12.0▲ 612 · 2d21%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Sierra LeoneAfricaMedium 0.483.593.00−0.59−16.4▲ 216 · 3d15%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Burkina FasoAfricaMedium 0.473.472.88−0.59−16.9▲ 217 · 1d15%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
BurundiAfricaMedium 0.482.481.89−0.59−23.8015 · 3d10%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
ComorosAfricaMedium 0.482.291.69−0.59−25.9▲ 112 · 2d10%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
NetherlandsEuropeHigh 0.9415.5014.92−0.58−3.709 · 1d61%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.6 · Established
SpainEuropeHigh 0.8013.7813.21−0.58−4.201154%Labour & Employment 12.4 · Established
ItalyEuropeHigh 0.7813.7213.14−0.58−4.3016 · 1d52%Labour & Employment 10.9 · Transitional
BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.7011.6911.11−0.58−5.0019 · 2d46%Labour & Employment 9.9 · Transitional
PhilippinesIndo-PacificMedium 0.578.838.25−0.58−6.6▲ 319 · 3d35%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.9 · Nascent
KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.484.774.19−0.58−12.2▲ 21420%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
ZimbabweAfricaMedium 0.464.343.75−0.58−13.5▲ 512 · 2d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.5 · Inception
Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMedium 0.453.803.23−0.58−15.1▲ 71314%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
SyriaGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.432.221.64−0.58−26.1▲ 214 · 1d8%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
SingaporeIndo-PacificHigh 0.9415.2014.62−0.57−3.8014 · 4d60%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.2 · Established
IndonesiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.609.979.40−0.57−5.7▲ 116 · 1d39%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.5 · Foundational
FinlandEuropeHigh 0.8514.5213.96−0.56−3.8▼ 118 · 2d58%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.6 · Transitional
UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.485.925.36−0.56−9.5▲ 419 · 2d24%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.7 · Inception
SwedenEuropeHigh 0.8915.3014.76−0.55−3.601560%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.9 · Established
New ZealandIndo-PacificHigh 0.7612.8312.28−0.55−4.3023 · 1d53%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.1 · Transitional
QatarGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.609.398.84−0.55−5.8▲ 211 · 1d41%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.3 · Nascent
IranGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.548.177.62−0.55−6.7014 · 1d35%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.4 · Nascent
KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.538.147.60−0.55−6.7023 · 2d33%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.7 · Nascent
Sri LankaSouth AsiaMedium 0.507.256.70−0.55−7.6020 · 2d29%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.1 · Nascent
MalawiAfricaMedium 0.443.763.22−0.55−14.6▲ 612 · 1d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.1 · Inception
TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.443.553.00−0.55−15.6▲ 315 · 5d14%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
NorwayEuropeHigh 0.8114.6214.08−0.54−3.7015 · 1d57%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional
United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.6411.9411.40−0.54−4.5022 · 2d46%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational
PakistanSouth AsiaMedium 0.497.967.42−0.54−6.7▲ 218 · 2d29%Population Health 4.3 · Nascent
TanzaniaAfricaMedium 0.465.825.28−0.54−9.3▲ 314 · 2d23%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.3 · Inception
AfghanistanSouth AsiaMedium 0.431.460.92−0.54−36.9▲ 188%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
SwitzerlandEuropeHigh 0.8614.7314.20−0.53−3.601260%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.6 · Transitional
ChadAfricaMedium 0.412.261.74−0.52−23.0▲ 314 · 2d9%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
South KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 0.8316.0015.49−0.51−3.209 · 1d61%Labour & Employment 14 · Established
CanadaNorth AmericaHigh 0.8015.0614.55−0.51−3.4011 · 2d59%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established
YemenGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.381.621.12−0.51−31.1▲ 356%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.5812.1811.69−0.49−4.0018 · 2d46%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.5 · Transitional
RwandaAfricaMedium 0.445.955.46−0.49−8.3▲ 411 · 1d28%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
UgandaAfricaMedium 0.415.535.04−0.49−8.9▲ 814 · 3d23%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
EthiopiaAfricaMedium 0.405.705.21−0.48−8.4▲ 521 · 3d23%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.7 · Inception
RussiaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.5812.3011.83−0.47−3.8▲ 11048%Population Health 9.1 · Transitional
Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.5411.1910.72−0.47−4.2017 · 3d44%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.1 · Foundational
KenyaAfricaMedium 0.427.186.71−0.47−6.5▲ 31228%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.3 · Nascent
NigerAfricaMedium 0.363.072.60−0.47−15.3▲ 511 · 3d13%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
FranceEuropeHigh 0.8116.6416.18−0.46−2.80563%Labour & Employment 14.1 · Established
GermanyEuropeHigh 0.8216.3615.90−0.46−2.801064%Foundational Education 14.6 · Established
JapanIndo-PacificHigh 0.8116.2615.80−0.46−2.801163%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.8 · Established
AustraliaIndo-PacificHigh 0.7514.9514.48−0.46−3.1010 · 1d60%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.4 · Established
TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.364.013.56−0.45−11.2▲ 81217%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
IsraelGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.6414.4614.02−0.44−3.0▲ 114 · 1d56%Trade Facilitation & Logistics 12.7 · Established
IndiaSouth AsiaMedium 0.5312.6112.17−0.44−3.5015 · 1d46%Labour & Employment 7.4 · Foundational
United KingdomEuropeHigh 0.7816.4516.02−0.43−2.601164%Labour & Employment 14.2 · Established
ChinaChinaHigh 0.6515.6415.22−0.42−2.7010 · 1d58%Population Health 10.9 · Transitional
EgyptGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.408.988.57−0.40−4.5▲ 214 · 1d35%Labour & Employment 6.5 · Foundational
United StatesNorth AmericaHigh 0.7118.0317.64−0.38−2.1011 · 4d65%Population Health 13.3 · Established

Settings of this run

Load
11 capability groups singled out, 73 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out
Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesHighSocial InfrastructureMediumFoundational EducationHighPopulation HealthHighHealth System CapabilityHighInformation Environment & Strategic CommunicationHighGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationHighNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementHighFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceHighLabour & EmploymentHighTrade Facilitation & LogisticsHigh
Buffers
Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health TechnologiesNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementInformation Environment & Strategic CommunicationFiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure
regional exposure (30%); urban share of population (30%); share of population aged 65 and over (ranked) (20%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (20%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
Likelihood
4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.
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