Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years71.7rank 5 of 197 · 3 years: 72.0
Worst case−58.9%Energy supply shock · tail −50.3%
Opportunity · 10 years−11.9rank 168 of 197 · 3 years: −14.8
Best case+7Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed7%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.20expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Central African Rep.’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.98
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.83
Global financial crisis S03−0.70
Mass displacement S08−0.69
Chokepoint closure S05−0.68
Pandemic S14−0.64
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.62
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.58
Food and water shock S11−0.50
Disaster in the core S10−0.47
AI diffusion shock S13−0.41
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.40
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.37
Hybrid campaign S06−0.21
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.93 | −0.98 | −1.03 | −0.50 | ▼ 2 | 7 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.65 | −0.83 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.56 | −0.70 | −0.76 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 7 | Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | High 0.90 | −0.69 | −0.75 | −0.34 | ▼ 3 | 7 | Internal Security & Order 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.70 | −0.68 | −0.71 | −0.34 | 0 | 5 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.50 | −0.64 | −0.68 | −0.31 | 0 | 7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.53 | −0.62 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▼ 1 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.73 | −0.58 | −0.63 | −0.29 | 0 | 6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.43 | −0.50 | −0.55 | −0.24 | 0 | 6 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.49 | −0.47 | −0.52 | −0.23 | 0 | 6 | Energy Infrastructure 0.4 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.37 | −0.41 | −0.43 | −0.20 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.54 | −0.40 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▼ 1 | 4 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.32 | −0.37 | −0.40 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.23 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.10 | 0 | 4 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.02 | −1.23 | −0.41 | −0.65 | −0.65 | −1.47 | −1.74 | −1.34 | −1.31 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.71 | −0.30 | −0.99 | −0.89 | −1.23 | −1.42 | −0.89 | −1.02 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.09 | −0.38 | −0.26 | −0.76 | −0.76 | −0.95 | −1.26 | −1.01 | −0.84 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.72 | −0.39 | −1.44 | −1.18 | −1.66 | −0.71 | −0.09 | · |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −1.11 | −0.54 | · | −0.57 | −1.23 | −0.49 | −0.98 | −1.17 |
| Pandemic | −0.09 | −0.38 | −0.24 | −0.93 | −0.80 | −0.87 | −0.81 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.09 | −1.02 | −0.26 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.94 | −0.87 | −0.86 | −0.75 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.09 | · | −0.65 | −0.50 | −1.05 | −1.62 | −1.33 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.57 | −0.20 | −0.71 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.34 | −0.58 | −0.67 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.97 | −0.23 | −0.73 | −0.33 | −0.82 | −0.44 | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.69 | −0.52 | −0.71 | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.30 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.42 | · | −0.85 | · | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.16 | · | −0.53 | −0.51 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.78 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.07 | −0.39 | −0.28 | · | −0.43 | −0.41 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Central African Rep. is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+6.9
Energy abundance S16+2.8
Sovereign debt reset S19+1.8
Middle East settlement S21−0.2
Yield revolution S22−1.3
Great-power détente S18−6.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−6.6
100-day pandemic defence S24−11.1
Digital state leapfrog S23−21.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15−30.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 7.5 | 0.6 | 9 | 98 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.3 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 125 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.8 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 11 | 119 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −0.2 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 10 | 141 | Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −1.3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 5 | 106 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.2 | 2.6 | 8.8 | 8 | 147 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.3 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −6.6 | 4.7 | 11.3 | 6 | 114 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Loser | −11.1 | 2.2 | 13.3 | 5 | 193 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −21.3 | 5.1 | 26.4 | 5 | 190 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −30.0 | 1.0 | 31.0 | 3 | 163 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |