Scenarios 2027 / Results / S16

Capture test · S16 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Energy abundance breakthrough

C Energy, climate and resources↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers88net position above +10
Mixed65between the two
Losers44net position below -10
Largest net gain+81Japan

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−75−50−250+25+50+75Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +11.3Canada: −7.4North America mean: +2.0Europe 42France: +79.1United Kingdom: +49.0Germany: +76.4Netherlands: +57.3Sweden: +66.3Switzerland: +65.1Norway: −1.9Finland: +59.2Denmark: +32.8Spain: +61.2Italy: +57.4Belgium: +58.2Austria: +51.3Poland: +51.1Ireland: +40.5Portugal: +43.3Czechia: +50.2Estonia: +20.9Luxembourg: +34.2Lithuania: +30.2Greece: +29.5Hungary: +42.0Slovenia: +38.2Romania: +26.9Slovakia: +37.6Latvia: +29.5Iceland: +35.7Croatia: +30.1Serbia: +30.4Bulgaria: +25.6Malta: +16.9Cyprus: +16.8Liechtenstein: +21.1North Macedonia: +21.1Montenegro: +20.4Albania: +2.9Monaco: +15.8Bosnia & Herzegovina: +19.9Andorra: +13.4San Marino: +13.3Kosovo: +14.8Holy See: −1.0Europe mean: +35.3FranceChina 1China: +53.9China mean: +53.9Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +80.8South Korea: +77.0Singapore: +55.1Australia: −4.2Taiwan: +61.3New Zealand: +31.4Malaysia: −17.8Thailand: +31.4Indonesia: −25.8Vietnam: +24.6Philippines: +26.6Mongolia: −2.5Brunei: −53.4Fiji: +6.6Cambodia: +16.3North Korea: +15.7Myanmar: −55.2Papua New Guinea: −67.5Laos: +12.2Samoa: −8.7Tonga: −10.2Timor-Leste: −70.9Vanuatu: +7.2Solomon Islands: +7.1Palau: −8.5Marshall Islands: −13.7Micronesia: +5.9Kiribati: +5.7Tuvalu: +4.7Nauru: +5.1Indo-Pacific mean: +4.5JapanSouth KoreaSouth Asia 8India: +37.3Pakistan: +17.8Sri Lanka: +25.9Bangladesh: +21.8Nepal: +16.9Maldives: −1.1Bhutan: +11.4Afghanistan: −16.1South Asia mean: +14.2Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +12.0Türkiye: +41.1United Arab Emirates: −21.9Saudi Arabia: −29.1Qatar: −37.4Egypt: −5.2Iran: −21.9Oman: −44.5Kuwait: −51.0Jordan: +22.1Bahrain: −45.9Iraq: −69.1Lebanon: +11.1Palestine: +7.5Syria: +0.1Yemen: +0.6Gulf and Middle East mean: −14.5Africa 53South Africa: +36.2Morocco: +35.8Mauritius: +22.2Tunisia: +9.8Nigeria: −51.3Kenya: +24.4Ghana: −39.9Algeria: −53.3Senegal: +5.8Botswana: +15.5Namibia: +14.7Rwanda: +16.9Tanzania: −2.0Ethiopia: +16.8Uganda: +9.8Côte d'Ivoire: +1.7Seychelles: +11.9Zambia: +15.5Cabo Verde: −1.1Angola: −64.7Cameroon: −65.3Zimbabwe: +13.9Mozambique: −67.1Benin: +10.5Togo: −2.9Gabon: −67.1Madagascar: +9.6Malawi: +8.9Eswatini: +9.9Sierra Leone: +8.0Mauritania: +9.7Burkina Faso: +7.9Lesotho: +7.2Mali: +7.9Gambia: −1.2Djibouti: +7.6Congo: −72.0Guinea: −0.9Niger: −2.9Libya: −75.1Liberia: +0.9DR Congo: −1.5São Tomé & Príncipe: −11.6Equatorial Guinea: −73.2Sudan: −15.7Burundi: +4.6Comoros: +4.6Chad: −77.8Guinea-Bissau: +3.9Eritrea: +3.6Central African Rep.: +2.8Somalia: +3.1South Sudan: −84.0Africa mean: −8.8LibyaChadSouth SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −19.6Mexico: −10.2Chile: +34.2Argentina: +3.1Colombia: −40.3Peru: −11.7Uruguay: +26.3Costa Rica: +22.9Panama: +12.5Dominican Republic: +19.4Ecuador: −54.1Trinidad & Tobago: −49.1Jamaica: +1.4Cuba: +9.7Paraguay: +15.0El Salvador: +15.2Guatemala: +15.2Barbados: −1.1Bahamas: −4.2Bolivia: −49.3Honduras: +14.0Venezuela: −72.5Guyana: −64.1Nicaragua: +11.0Antigua & Barbuda: −7.4Grenada: +8.3Suriname: −7.8Belize: +2.4Dominica: +7.9Saint Lucia: −9.0Saint Kitts & Nevis: +8.4Saint Vincent & Grenadines: +7.7Haiti: +3.9Latin America and Caribbean mean: −4.9Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −35.6Ukraine: +21.9Kazakhstan: −46.2Georgia: +18.0Belarus: +19.4Azerbaijan: −55.1Armenia: +16.7Moldova: +6.2Uzbekistan: +5.9Kyrgyzstan: −8.3Tajikistan: +8.2Turkmenistan: −73.6Russia and Eurasia mean: −10.2
Lowest: South Sudan, Chad, Libya. Highest: South Korea, France, Japan.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−500+50Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 84.8, net position +11.30France (Europe): readiness 81.1, net position +79.10United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 78.5, net position +49.00Germany (Europe): readiness 79.8, net position +76.40Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 84, net position +80.80South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 82.7, net position +77.00China (China): readiness 76, net position +53.90Netherlands (Europe): readiness 70.8, net position +57.30Sweden (Europe): readiness 71.3, net position +66.30Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 59.3, net position +55.10Canada (North America): readiness 71.4, net position −7.40Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 66.1, net position −4.20Switzerland (Europe): readiness 65.3, net position +65.10Norway (Europe): readiness 62.4, net position −1.90Finland (Europe): readiness 64.8, net position +59.20Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 61, net position +12.00Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 63.5, net position +61.30Denmark (Europe): readiness 59.2, net position +32.80Spain (Europe): readiness 66.5, net position +61.20Italy (Europe): readiness 64.1, net position +57.40Belgium (Europe): readiness 65, net position +58.20New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 46.3, net position +31.40Austria (Europe): readiness 54.3, net position +51.30India (South Asia): readiness 58.5, net position +37.30Poland (Europe): readiness 55.6, net position +51.10Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 59.6, net position −35.60Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 57.1, net position +41.10Ireland (Europe): readiness 43.2, net position +40.50United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 51.9, net position −21.90Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 56, net position −19.60Portugal (Europe): readiness 46.8, net position +43.30Czechia (Europe): readiness 51.2, net position +50.20Estonia (Europe): readiness 41.2, net position +20.90Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 49.8, net position −17.80Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47.5, net position −29.10Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 45.2, net position −10.20Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 34.3, net position +34.20South Africa (Africa): readiness 50.6, net position +36.20Lithuania (Europe): readiness 40.3, net position +30.20Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 45.1, net position +31.40Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 42.9, net position +34.20Greece (Europe): readiness 40.1, net position +29.50Hungary (Europe): readiness 49, net position +42.00Slovenia (Europe): readiness 43.7, net position +38.20Romania (Europe): readiness 44.5, net position +26.90Slovakia (Europe): readiness 42.3, net position +37.60Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 43.3, net position −25.80Latvia (Europe): readiness 33.5, net position +29.50Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 44.1, net position +24.60Iceland (Europe): readiness 36, net position +35.70Croatia (Europe): readiness 35.2, net position +30.10Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 40.9, net position +21.90Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 32.5, net position −37.40Morocco (Africa): readiness 40.7, net position +35.80Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 44.2, net position +3.10Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.3, net position −40.30Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 37.1, net position −5.20Serbia (Europe): readiness 33.9, net position +30.40Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 37.9, net position +25.60Malta (Europe): readiness 26.8, net position +16.90Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 34.9, net position +26.60Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.1, net position −11.70Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.2, net position +26.30Cyprus (Europe): readiness 25.9, net position +16.80Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.5, net position −21.90Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34.2, net position −46.20Mauritius (Africa): readiness 25.1, net position +22.20Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 29, net position −44.50Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 35.9, net position +17.80Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.3, net position +22.90Tunisia (Africa): readiness 29.3, net position +9.80Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.8, net position +18.00Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 23.8, net position −51.00Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 28.4, net position +22.10Nigeria (Africa): readiness 29.1, net position −51.30Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 24.5, net position −45.90Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 26.2, net position +25.90Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 21.3, net position +21.10Kenya (Africa): readiness 27.8, net position +24.40Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.7, net position +12.50Ghana (Africa): readiness 25.5, net position −39.90Algeria (Africa): readiness 28.4, net position −53.30Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 30.8, net position +19.40Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.4, net position +19.40Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.1, net position −55.10Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.2, net position −54.10Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 28, net position +21.80Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.9, net position −49.10Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 23.4, net position +16.70North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 21.4, net position +21.10Senegal (Africa): readiness 22.3, net position +5.80Montenegro (Europe): readiness 20.7, net position +20.40Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 21.3, net position +6.20Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.8, net position +1.40Albania (Europe): readiness 18.1, net position +2.90Botswana (Africa): readiness 18, net position +15.50Namibia (Africa): readiness 21.9, net position +14.70Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.1, net position +9.70Rwanda (Africa): readiness 19.6, net position +16.90Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 26.7, net position +5.90Monaco (Europe): readiness 16.1, net position +15.80Tanzania (Africa): readiness 20.9, net position −2.00Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 20.3, net position +19.90Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.1, net position +15.00Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.8, net position −2.50Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 19.7, net position +16.80El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.8, net position +15.20Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.6, net position +15.20Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.3, net position −53.40Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.8, net position −1.10Uganda (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position +9.80Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 18.3, net position +1.70Seychelles (Africa): readiness 14.1, net position +11.90Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.9, net position −4.20Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.7, net position +6.60Andorra (Europe): readiness 13.7, net position +13.40Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19, net position −49.30Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.5, net position +14.00San Marino (Europe): readiness 13.6, net position +13.30Nepal (South Asia): readiness 17.2, net position +16.90Zambia (Africa): readiness 18.2, net position +15.50Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.5, net position +16.30Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 15.2, net position −8.30Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 13.8, net position −1.10Kosovo (Europe): readiness 15.2, net position +14.80Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 16.6, net position −69.10Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 15.9, net position +11.10Maldives (South Asia): readiness 13.7, net position −1.10Angola (Africa): readiness 15, net position −64.70Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.9, net position −72.50Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.8, net position −64.10Cameroon (Africa): readiness 14.4, net position −65.30Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.2, net position +11.00Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.9, net position −7.40Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 16.9, net position +13.90North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17, net position +15.70Mozambique (Africa): readiness 15.3, net position −67.10Benin (Africa): readiness 12.8, net position +10.50Togo (Africa): readiness 12.9, net position −2.90Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.2, net position +8.30Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.8, net position −7.80Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.6, net position +2.40Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 13.8, net position +8.20Gabon (Africa): readiness 13.1, net position −67.10Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 11.7, net position +11.40Madagascar (Africa): readiness 11.8, net position +9.60Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.9, net position −55.20Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.7, net position +7.90Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.7, net position −9.00Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.3, net position +8.40Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.3, net position −67.50Malawi (Africa): readiness 11.1, net position +8.90Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.4, net position +7.70Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 11.6, net position +7.50Eswatini (Africa): readiness 12.1, net position +9.90Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.4, net position +12.20Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 10.1, net position +8.00Mauritania (Africa): readiness 11.9, net position +9.70Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 13.6, net position −73.60Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.9, net position −8.70Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 9.9, net position +7.90Lesotho (Africa): readiness 9.2, net position +7.20Mali (Africa): readiness 9.9, net position +7.90Gambia (Africa): readiness 8.9, net position −1.20Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9, net position −10.20Djibouti (Africa): readiness 9.7, net position +7.60Congo (Africa): readiness 10.1, net position −72.00Guinea (Africa): readiness 9.5, net position −0.90Niger (Africa): readiness 9.7, net position −2.90Libya (Africa): readiness 12.2, net position −75.10Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.3, net position −70.90Liberia (Africa): readiness 8.6, net position +0.90Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.2, net position +7.20Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.2, net position +7.10DR Congo (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position −1.50São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 8.5, net position −11.60Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8, net position −8.50Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 9, net position −73.20Sudan (Africa): readiness 10, net position −15.70Burundi (Africa): readiness 6.5, net position +4.60Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7, net position −13.70Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.9, net position +5.90Comoros (Africa): readiness 6.5, net position +4.60Chad (Africa): readiness 5.5, net position −77.80Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 9, net position +0.10Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.8, net position +5.70Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.2, net position +4.70Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 5.7, net position +3.90Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 6.5, net position +3.90Eritrea (Africa): readiness 5.4, net position +3.60Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.2, net position +5.10Holy See (Europe): readiness 3.5, net position −1.00Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 4.6, net position +2.80Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 5, net position +0.60Somalia (Africa): readiness 5, net position +3.10Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 4.9, net position −16.10South Sudan (Africa): readiness 3.8, net position −84.00FranceJapanSouth KoreaLibyaChadSouth Sudan
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: oil, gas and coal among a net exporter’s main exports.

Gulf and Middle East 16−14.5
Russia and Eurasia 12−10.2
Africa 53−8.8
Latin America and Caribbean 33−4.9
North America 2+1.9
Indo-Pacific 30+4.5
South Asia 8+14.2
Europe 42+35.3
China 1+53.9

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1JapanIndo-PacificGainer+80.880.90.18486Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16.3 · Advanced
2FranceEuropeGainer+79.179.20.18182Energy Technologies 15.8 · Advanced
3South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+77.079.72.78382Energy Infrastructure 16.1 · Advanced
4GermanyEuropeGainer+76.476.40.18085Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced
5SwedenEuropeGainer+66.370.03.77180Energy Technologies 12.6 · Established
6SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+65.165.20.16584Energy Technologies 11 · Transitional
7TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+61.361.50.26476Energy Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
8SpainEuropeGainer+61.265.44.26770Energy Technologies 12 · Established
9FinlandEuropeGainer+59.263.44.26577Energy Technologies 10.6 · Transitional
10BelgiumEuropeGainer+58.264.46.26573Energy Technologies 11.4 · Transitional
11ItalyEuropeGainer+57.460.73.36469Energy Technologies 11.6 · Transitional
12NetherlandsEuropeGainer+57.361.64.37181Energy Technologies 12.4 · Established
13SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+55.157.52.45987Energy Technologies 8.8 · Foundational
14ChinaChinaGainer+53.954.10.27678Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
15AustriaEuropeGainer+51.351.40.15474Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational
16PolandEuropeGainer+51.151.30.25664Energy Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
17CzechiaEuropeGainer+50.250.40.25163Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational
18United KingdomEuropeGainer+49.049.10.17981Industrial & Sectoral Base 15.3 · Advanced
19PortugalEuropeGainer+43.346.02.64764Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
20HungaryEuropeGainer+42.042.20.24959Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational
21TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+41.146.45.35760Energy Technologies 10 · Transitional
22IrelandEuropeGainer+40.540.60.14371Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
23SloveniaEuropeGainer+38.243.65.44461Energy Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
24SlovakiaEuropeGainer+37.640.73.04258Energy Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
25IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+37.346.38.95961Technology Adoption & Diffusion 10.5 · Transitional
26South AfricaAfricaGainer+36.242.56.35158Energy Technologies 8.8 · Foundational
27MoroccoAfricaGainer+35.836.50.74153Energy Technologies 6 · Foundational
28IcelandEuropeGainer+35.736.00.23658Energy Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
30ChileLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+34.235.00.84361Energy Technologies 6.2 · Foundational
29LuxembourgEuropeGainer+34.234.30.13470Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception
31DenmarkEuropeGainer+32.835.22.45978Energy Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
33ThailandIndo-PacificGainer+31.431.80.44560Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
32New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+31.431.70.34670Energy Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
34SerbiaEuropeGainer+30.430.70.33449Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent
35LithuaniaEuropeGainer+30.239.29.04061Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
36CroatiaEuropeGainer+30.130.30.23553Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent
38LatviaEuropeGainer+29.532.63.13457Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
37GreeceEuropeGainer+29.539.810.24056Energy Technologies 5.4 · Nascent
39RomaniaEuropeGainer+26.927.10.24554Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
40PhilippinesIndo-PacificGainer+26.627.10.53549Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
41UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+26.327.31.03152Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
42Sri LankaSouth AsiaGainer+25.926.20.32640Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception
43BulgariaEuropeGainer+25.637.211.53850Energy Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
44VietnamIndo-PacificGainer+24.625.10.54453Energy Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
45KenyaAfricaGainer+24.425.30.92839Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
46Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+22.923.91.02749Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
47MauritiusAfricaGainer+22.222.90.72554Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
48JordanGulf and Middle EastGainer+22.123.81.82841Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
49UkraineRussia and EurasiaGainer+21.924.22.34143Energy Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
50BangladeshSouth AsiaGainer+21.822.10.32837Energy Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
52North MacedoniaEuropeGainer+21.121.40.32140Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
51LiechtensteinEuropeGainer+21.121.30.22153Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
53EstoniaEuropeGainer+20.924.53.64166Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
54MontenegroEuropeGainer+20.420.70.32136Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
55Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeGainer+19.920.30.32032Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
57Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+19.420.61.22342Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
56BelarusRussia and EurasiaGainer+19.421.92.53138Energy Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
58GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaGainer+18.020.22.22544Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
59PakistanSouth AsiaGainer+17.827.09.13635Energy Technologies 6 · Foundational
62NepalSouth AsiaGainer+16.917.20.41728Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
61RwandaAfricaGainer+16.917.80.92037Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
60MaltaEuropeGainer+16.926.89.92757Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
64EthiopiaAfricaGainer+16.817.91.02030Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
63CyprusEuropeGainer+16.825.99.22651Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception
65ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaGainer+16.719.22.52338Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
66CambodiaIndo-PacificGainer+16.317.00.71831Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
67MonacoEuropeGainer+15.816.10.31641Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
68North KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+15.716.50.91714Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2 · Inception
70ZambiaAfricaGainer+15.516.61.11828Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
69BotswanaAfricaGainer+15.516.30.91842Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
72GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+15.216.51.32035Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
71El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+15.216.51.31934Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
73ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+15.016.31.31937Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
74KosovoEuropeGainer+14.815.20.41528Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
75NamibiaAfricaGainer+14.719.95.22237Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
76HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+14.015.41.41829Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
77ZimbabweAfricaGainer+13.915.11.21722Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
78AndorraEuropeGainer+13.413.70.31435Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
79San MarinoEuropeGainer+13.313.60.31438Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
80PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+12.520.98.42446Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
81LaosIndo-PacificGainer+12.213.00.81322Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
82IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+12.021.39.26169Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
83SeychellesAfricaGainer+11.912.81.01437Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
84BhutanSouth AsiaGainer+11.411.70.41227Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
85United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+11.315.34.08585Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced
86LebanonGulf and Middle EastGainer+11.113.52.41621Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
87NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+11.012.41.51427Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
88BeninAfricaGainer+10.511.61.11326Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
89EswatiniAfricaMixed+9.911.01.11226Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
91UgandaAfricaMixed+9.817.77.91932Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
90TunisiaAfricaMixed+9.820.310.52943Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
93MauritaniaAfricaMixed+9.710.91.21221Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
92CubaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+9.711.11.52226Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception
94MadagascarAfricaMixed+9.610.81.21223Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
95MalawiAfricaMixed+8.910.11.21121Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
96Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.49.91.51125Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
97GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.39.81.51125Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
98TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMixed+8.211.23.01424Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
99Sierra LeoneAfricaMixed+8.09.21.21021Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
102MaliAfricaMixed+7.99.01.21020Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
101Burkina FasoAfricaMixed+7.99.01.21021Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
100DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.99.41.51126Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
103Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.79.21.51024Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
104DjiboutiAfricaMixed+7.68.91.21019Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
105PalestineGulf and Middle EastMixed+7.59.82.41221Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
107VanuatuIndo-PacificMixed+7.28.00.8819Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
106LesothoAfricaMixed+7.28.41.2922Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
108Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificMixed+7.18.00.8818Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
109FijiIndo-PacificMixed+6.614.37.71532Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
110MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMixed+6.217.511.32136Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
112MicronesiaIndo-PacificMixed+5.96.70.9714Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
111UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaMixed+5.98.52.62735Energy Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
113SenegalAfricaMixed+5.818.212.32237Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception
114KiribatiIndo-PacificMixed+5.76.60.8716Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
115NauruIndo-PacificMixed+5.16.00.9613Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
116TuvaluIndo-PacificMixed+4.75.60.9615Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
118ComorosAfricaMixed+4.65.91.3714Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
117BurundiAfricaMixed+4.65.91.3715Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
120HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.95.71.8712Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
119Guinea-BissauAfricaMixed+3.95.21.3613Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
121EritreaAfricaMixed+3.64.91.3510Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
123SomaliaAfricaMixed+3.14.51.458Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
122ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.18.04.94445Energy Technologies 7 · Foundational
124AlbaniaEuropeMixed+2.99.76.81837Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
125Central African Rep.AfricaMixed+2.84.21.3511Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
126BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.48.96.51226Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
127Côte d'IvoireAfricaMixed+1.79.47.81834Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
128JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.416.815.32037Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
129LiberiaAfricaMixed+0.97.86.9917Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
130YemenGulf and Middle EastMixed+0.63.42.857Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
131SyriaGulf and Middle EastMixed+0.12.82.799Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
132GuineaAfricaMixed−0.98.69.51018Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
133Holy SeeEuropeMixed−1.03.54.5410Advanced Manufacturing 0 · Inception
136MaldivesSouth AsiaMixed−1.113.714.81429Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
135Cabo VerdeAfricaMixed−1.112.613.61430Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
134BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−1.111.813.01735Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
137GambiaAfricaMixed−1.28.19.3920Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
138DR CongoAfricaMixed−1.55.57.01015Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
139NorwayEuropeMixed−1.918.720.66277Energy Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
140TanzaniaAfricaMixed−2.013.916.02134Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
141MongoliaIndo-PacificMixed−2.513.115.71933Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
143NigerAfricaMixed−2.93.96.81017Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
142TogoAfricaMixed−2.911.714.61325Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
145BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−4.212.216.41433Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
144AustraliaIndo-PacificMixed−4.217.822.06676Energy Technologies 11.8 · Transitional
146EgyptGulf and Middle EastMixed−5.29.114.33744Energy Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
148Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.410.517.91227Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
147CanadaNorth AmericaMixed−7.412.920.37178Energy Technologies 13 · Established
149SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.83.911.71325Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
150KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaMixed−8.310.919.11528Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
151PalauIndo-PacificMixed−8.57.215.7817Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
152SamoaIndo-PacificMixed−8.79.618.21022Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
153Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−9.09.518.41125Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
155TongaIndo-PacificLoser−10.28.718.9920Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
154MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−10.211.221.44562Energy Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
156São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaLoser−11.67.819.4919Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
157PeruLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−11.79.621.33250Energy Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
158Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificLoser−13.76.320.0715Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
159SudanAfricaLoser−15.75.421.11012Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
160AfghanistanSouth AsiaLoser−16.14.921.059Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
161MalaysiaIndo-PacificLoser−17.813.431.35066Energy Technologies 7.6 · Foundational
162BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.610.129.75660Energy Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
164IranGulf and Middle EastLoser−21.95.927.84036Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational
163United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastLoser−21.97.829.75268Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational
165IndonesiaIndo-PacificLoser−25.815.441.24355Energy Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
166Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastLoser−29.17.136.34861Energy Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
167RussiaRussia and EurasiaLoser−35.67.242.76055Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 · Transitional
168QatarGulf and Middle EastLoser−37.44.942.23355Energy Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
169GhanaAfricaLoser−39.95.445.32638Energy Technologies 3 · Nascent
170ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−40.35.846.13250Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
171OmanGulf and Middle EastLoser−44.54.448.82948Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception
172BahrainGulf and Middle EastLoser−45.93.749.62547Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
173KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−46.24.150.33447Energy Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
174Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−49.14.553.62542Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
175BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−49.33.452.71929Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
176KuwaitGulf and Middle EastLoser−51.03.654.62441Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
177NigeriaAfricaLoser−51.36.157.42937Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent
178AlgeriaAfricaLoser−53.36.059.32835Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
179BruneiIndo-PacificLoser−53.44.958.41836Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
180EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−54.14.458.52436Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception
181AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaLoser−55.12.958.02438Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception
182MyanmarIndo-PacificLoser−55.24.059.31519Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
183GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−64.12.366.41328Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
184AngolaAfricaLoser−64.73.167.91526Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
185CameroonAfricaLoser−65.33.068.31425Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
187GabonAfricaLoser−67.12.769.91324Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
186MozambiqueAfricaLoser−67.13.270.41523Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
188Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificLoser−67.53.070.51123Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
189IraqGulf and Middle EastLoser−69.12.571.61723Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
190Timor-LesteIndo-PacificLoser−70.92.273.1820Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
191CongoAfricaLoser−72.02.174.11019Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
192VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−72.53.475.91918Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
193Equatorial GuineaAfricaLoser−73.21.975.1918Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
194TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−73.61.675.21420Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
195LibyaAfricaLoser−75.12.677.61215Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
196ChadAfricaLoser−77.81.279.0614Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
197South SudanAfricaLoser−84.00.884.847Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception

Settings of this run

Required
Energy InfrastructureEnergy TechnologiesAdvanced ManufacturingTransport InfrastructureRegulatory Governance & Strategic ControlsGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationIndustrial & Sectoral BaseTechnology Adoption & Diffusion

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceSovereign Capital & External Financial PowerStructural Transformation & ComplexityGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationExport Capability & Sophistication
Gain exposure
share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production (70%); regional exposure (30%).
Loss exposure
Oil, gas and coal among a net exporter’s main exports: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter (90%); regional exposure (10%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results