Syria · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years45.9rank 20 of 197 · 3 years: 41.2

Worst case−42.4%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −38.1%

Opportunity · 10 years−13.2rank 175 of 197 · 3 years: −16.1

Best case+6Middle East settlement · gainer in 0 of 10

Shock absorbed8%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.03expected index points from best practice

Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: consumer price inflation; youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; public debt relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; low real gdp per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Syria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.94

Food and water shock S11−0.92

Global financial crisis S03−0.67

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.65

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.62

Pandemic S14−0.58

AI diffusion shock S13−0.55

Chokepoint closure S05−0.50

Mass displacement S08−0.47

Disaster in the core S10−0.36

Hybrid campaign S06−0.32

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.29

Energy supply shock S09−0.28

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.17

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.75	−0.94	−0.98	−0.47	▼ 4	15	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.80	−0.92	−1.03	−0.46	▼ 4	19	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0.4 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.50	−0.67	−0.70	−0.32	▲ 1	11	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.76	−0.65	−0.68	−0.33	▼ 2	11	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.52	−0.62	−0.68	−0.31	0	10	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.43	−0.58	−0.63	−0.28	▲ 2	14	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.46	−0.55	−0.59	−0.26	▲ 2	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.48	−0.50	−0.57	−0.25	▲ 4	13	Economic Leverage & Dependence 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.60	−0.47	−0.52	−0.23	▼ 3	13	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.37	−0.36	−0.40	−0.18	▲ 2	10	Financial System Depth & Access 1.1 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.34	−0.32	−0.37	−0.16	▼ 1	10	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.4 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.23	−0.29	−0.31	−0.14	▲ 3	6	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	Low 0.24	−0.28	−0.31	−0.14	▲ 9	8	Energy Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Low 0.19	−0.17	−0.18	−0.08	▲ 4	3	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.10	−0.86	−0.48	−1.20	−1.06	−1.37	−1.14	−1.06	−1.21
Food and water shock	−0.10	−1.06	−0.48	−1.29	−1.22	−1.31	−0.62	−1.04	−1.19
Global financial crisis	−0.25	−0.36	−0.32	−0.72	−0.72	−0.88	−1.07	−0.96	−0.76
Legitimacy crisis	−0.35	·	−1.06	−0.54	−1.24	−1.51	−1.14	·	·
Infrastructure collapse	−0.47	−0.98	−0.35	−0.35	−0.35	−0.87	−0.73	−0.80	−0.70
Pandemic	−0.41	−0.32	−0.26	−0.78	−0.68	−0.73	−0.68	−0.67	−0.67
AI diffusion shock	−0.42	−0.32	−0.29	−0.86	−0.65	−0.89	−0.75	−0.42	−0.37
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−0.83	−0.70	·	−0.37	−0.80	−0.32	−0.64	−0.78
Mass displacement	·	−0.48	−0.36	−0.99	−0.81	−1.07	−0.47	−0.06	·
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.74	−0.22	−0.55	−0.25	−0.62	−0.33	−0.25	−0.25
Hybrid campaign	−0.18	−0.53	−0.58	·	−0.59	−0.56	·	−0.22	−0.22
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.26	−0.16	−0.15	·	−0.38	−0.37	−0.38	−0.37	−0.56
Energy supply shock	−0.07	−0.40	−0.15	−0.17	−0.17	−0.37	−0.44	−0.43	−0.38
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.24	−0.09	−0.12	−0.15	·	−0.30	·	−0.30	−0.30

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Syria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Middle East settlement S21+5.6

Emerging-market breakout S20+4.5

Yield revolution S22+1.7

Energy abundance S16+0.1

100-day pandemic defence S24−4.7

Sovereign debt reset S19−4.9

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−12.2

Great-power détente S18−15.8

Digital state leapfrog S23−22.6

Superintelligence takeoff S15−40.9

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+5.6	10.2	4.5	14	112	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2.5 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+4.5	6.4	1.9	10	124	Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+1.7	6.3	4.6	9	85	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+0.1	2.8	2.7	9	131	Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−4.7	3.7	8.4	9	165	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−4.9	4.1	9.0	8	185	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−12.2	5.4	17.6	9	143	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Loser	−15.8	1.7	17.5	7	178	Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Loser	−22.6	4.9	27.6	7	192	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−40.9	2.2	43.1	5	185	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception