Food and water shock · Results

Typical nation−0.36median change in index, points

Hardest hit−1.08Sudan

Lose a domain band121of 197 nations

Worth of best practice+0.17mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

Lowest: Sudan, Yemen, Niger. Highest: Canada, Norway, United Kingdom.

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Governance & Integrity−0.61

Human Capital−0.60

Information & Influence−0.57

Trade & Investment−0.55

Strategic Infrastructure−0.48

Production & Innovation−0.48

Financial Strength−0.29

National Security−0.20

Critical Technology−0.04

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

No responseCurrent plansBest practice

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Region

										Weakest point
Sudan	Africa	High 0.95	2.61	1.53	−1.08	−41.3	▼ 5	20 · 3d	14%	Internal Security & Order 0.2 · Inception
Yemen	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.97	1.62	0.55	−1.07	−65.9	▼ 2	6	9%	Early Childhood Development 0 · Inception
Niger	Africa	High 0.94	3.07	2.05	−1.02	−33.3	▼ 9	25 · 5d	16%	Population Health 1 · Inception
Somalia	Africa	High 0.96	1.62	0.60	−1.02	−63.1	0	4	9%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Comoros	Africa	High 0.91	2.29	1.29	−0.99	−43.4	▼ 7	18 · 3d	13%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.89	3.72	2.74	−0.97	−26.1	▼ 8	25 · 3d	17%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Afghanistan	South Asia	High 0.92	1.46	0.50	−0.96	−65.5	▼ 1	9	10%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Benin	Africa	High 0.91	4.09	3.14	−0.95	−23.2	▼ 13	28 · 3d	21%	Resource Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
Togo	Africa	High 0.91	4.05	3.12	−0.93	−23.0	▼ 14	26 · 1d	22%	Resource Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Mauritania	Africa	High 0.88	3.58	2.65	−0.93	−26.1	▼ 5	29 · 4d	20%	Population Health 1.9 · Inception
Djibouti	Africa	High 0.87	3.20	2.28	−0.92	−28.8	▼ 7	27 · 5d	19%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Syria	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.80	2.22	1.30	−0.92	−41.6	▼ 4	19 · 2d	12%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0.4 · Inception
Kenya	Africa	High 0.95	7.18	6.32	−0.86	−12.0	▼ 10	23	31%	Resource Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Micronesia	Indo-Pacific	High 0.79	2.33	1.47	−0.85	−36.6	▼ 3	16 · 1d	13%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Algeria	Africa	High 0.95	6.96	6.12	−0.84	−12.0	▼ 9	24 · 3d	33%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5.1 · Nascent
Madagascar	Africa	High 0.80	3.90	3.07	−0.84	−21.4	▼ 8	15 · 1d	21%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Sierra Leone	Africa	High 0.80	3.59	2.75	−0.84	−23.5	▼ 4	20 · 5d	19%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Haiti	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.72	2.03	1.20	−0.83	−40.7	▼ 2	10	11%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Eritrea	Africa	High 0.73	2.01	1.18	−0.83	−41.2	▼ 2	11 · 1d	11%	Resource Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
Angola	Africa	High 0.80	4.60	3.78	−0.82	−17.9	▼ 5	16 · 1d	22%	Population Health 2.5 · Inception
Guinea	Africa	High 0.73	3.15	2.35	−0.80	−25.4	▼ 2	21 · 5d	17%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 1.9 · Inception
Equatorial Guinea	Africa	High 0.72	2.80	2.00	−0.80	−28.6	▼ 1	25 · 2d	15%	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1.4 · Inception
Senegal	Africa	High 0.87	6.42	5.63	−0.79	−12.2	▼ 7	29 · 2d	31%	Population Health 4.5 · Nascent
Zimbabwe	Africa	High 0.74	4.34	3.56	−0.78	−17.9	▼ 5	15 · 2d	20%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.2 · Nascent
Iran	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.87	8.17	7.41	−0.76	−9.3	▼ 4	19 · 3d	34%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.6 · Nascent
Cameroon	Africa	High 0.74	4.39	3.63	−0.76	−17.3	▼ 5	16 · 1d	22%	Population Health 2.6 · Inception
Guinea-Bissau	Africa	High 0.67	2.07	1.32	−0.76	−36.5	0	19 · 1d	12%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Rwanda	Africa	High 0.79	5.95	5.20	−0.75	−12.5	▼ 9	20 · 4d	28%	Resource Infrastructure 2 · Inception
Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.73	3.76	3.02	−0.74	−19.7	▼ 2	18 · 4d	20%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Congo	Africa	High 0.67	3.19	2.45	−0.74	−23.2	▼ 1	25 · 4d	16%	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2.3 · Inception
South Sudan	Africa	High 0.62	1.38	0.64	−0.74	−53.6	▲ 3	3	7%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0 · Inception
Nigeria	Africa	High 0.79	7.43	6.69	−0.73	−9.9	▼ 4	21 · 2d	30%	Population Health 2.7 · Inception
Ethiopia	Africa	High 0.74	5.70	4.97	−0.73	−12.8	▼ 4	29 · 4d	26%	Resource Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Kiribati	Indo-Pacific	High 0.67	2.20	1.47	−0.73	−33.2	0	15 · 1d	13%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
São Tomé & Príncipe	Africa	High 0.67	2.85	2.13	−0.72	−25.2	0	22 · 1d	15%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Samoa	Indo-Pacific	High 0.69	3.48	2.76	−0.71	−20.6	0	21 · 5d	19%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Timor-Leste	Indo-Pacific	High 0.65	2.98	2.27	−0.71	−23.9	▼ 3	16 · 3d	16%	Resource Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
Egypt	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.87	8.98	8.29	−0.68	−7.6	▼ 6	20 · 2d	41%	Population Health 7.1 · Foundational
Uganda	Africa	High 0.69	5.53	4.85	−0.68	−12.2	▼ 4	21 · 3d	26%	Resource Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
Gambia	Africa	High 0.62	3.32	2.64	−0.68	−20.4	0	17 · 4d	17%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Liberia	Africa	High 0.63	2.93	2.25	−0.68	−23.2	▼ 3	22 · 4d	16%	Resource Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Pakistan	South Asia	High 0.74	7.96	7.29	−0.67	−8.4	▼ 2	22 · 3d	32%	Population Health 3.8 · Nascent
Libya	Africa	High 0.61	3.01	2.33	−0.67	−22.4	▼ 2	25	16%	Internal Security & Order 1.5 · Inception
Burundi	Africa	Medium 0.60	2.48	1.81	−0.67	−27.1	0	19 · 3d	13%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Cuba	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.68	5.95	5.30	−0.65	−10.9	▼ 7	17 · 2d	27%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3 · Nascent
Venezuela	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.61	4.55	3.91	−0.65	−14.2	▼ 2	26 · 3d	20%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 · Inception
Burkina Faso	Africa	High 0.61	3.47	2.82	−0.65	−18.7	▲ 2	20 · 2d	19%	Resource Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Tonga	Indo-Pacific	High 0.61	3.21	2.56	−0.65	−20.1	▼ 1	20 · 3d	17%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Tanzania	Africa	High 0.67	5.82	5.19	−0.63	−10.8	▼ 6	14 · 2d	29%	Population Health 4.9 · Nascent
Chad	Africa	Medium 0.55	2.26	1.63	−0.63	−28.0	▲ 2	15 · 2d	11%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception
Mozambique	Africa	High 0.60	4.12	3.50	−0.62	−15.1	▼ 6	13	21%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.2 · Nascent
Malawi	Africa	Medium 0.59	3.76	3.14	−0.62	−16.6	0	16 · 3d	19%	Resource Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
Côte d'Ivoire	Africa	High 0.63	5.42	4.81	−0.61	−11.2	▼ 5	18 · 2d	27%	Population Health 3.6 · Nascent
Grenada	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.60	4.04	3.44	−0.60	−14.9	▼ 4	12 · 2d	22%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Tajikistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.58	4.01	3.41	−0.60	−15.0	▼ 2	19	21%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2.6 · Inception
Turkmenistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.56	3.55	2.97	−0.58	−16.2	▲ 3	14 · 4d	22%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3.2 · Nascent
Lebanon	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.54	4.66	4.08	−0.57	−12.3	▼ 2	15 · 2d	20%	Resource Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception
Lesotho	Africa	Medium 0.55	3.43	2.85	−0.57	−16.7	▲ 4	17 · 1d	19%	Resource Infrastructure 1.4 · Inception
Cabo Verde	Africa	Medium 0.58	4.72	4.16	−0.56	−11.9	▼ 2	16 · 2d	26%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Maldives	South Asia	Medium 0.58	4.62	4.06	−0.56	−12.1	▼ 2	16	26%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Saint Kitts & Nevis	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.54	3.83	3.27	−0.56	−14.7	▲ 2	14 · 1d	20%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Iraq	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.54	4.69	4.15	−0.55	−11.6	▼ 1	18 · 1d	23%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3.8 · Nascent
Mali	Africa	Medium 0.51	3.41	2.87	−0.55	−16.0	▲ 6	21 · 2d	18%	Population Health 2.4 · Inception
Saint Lucia	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.53	3.85	3.31	−0.54	−14.1	▲ 3	15 · 1d	21%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
DR Congo	Africa	Medium 0.47	2.87	2.34	−0.54	−18.7	▲ 4	17 · 5d	13%	Population Health 2.1 · Inception
Jordan	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.61	7.50	6.98	−0.52	−6.9	▼ 1	11	35%	Resource Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
Papua New Guinea	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.48	3.80	3.28	−0.52	−13.6	▲ 4	13	19%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
Ghana	Africa	Medium 0.55	6.98	6.48	−0.51	−7.2	▼ 3	12 · 1d	31%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Zambia	Africa	Medium 0.51	4.93	4.42	−0.51	−10.3	▼ 2	15	24%	Population Health 4.5 · Nascent
Eswatini	Africa	Medium 0.49	3.71	3.20	−0.51	−13.8	▲ 6	10	20%	Resource Infrastructure 1.6 · Inception
Laos	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.49	3.70	3.19	−0.51	−13.8	▲ 6	11	20%	Resource Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
North Korea	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.46	4.26	3.76	−0.50	−11.8	0	16	17%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.2 · Inception
Nauru	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.44	1.96	1.46	−0.50	−25.6	▲ 4	9 · 1d	11%	Resource Infrastructure 0.1 · Inception
Central African Rep.	Africa	Medium 0.43	1.66	1.16	−0.50	−30.1	0	6	9%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Argentina	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.63	9.25	8.75	−0.49	−5.3	▼ 3	15 · 2d	40%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.9 · Foundational
Kuwait	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.59	7.51	7.01	−0.49	−6.6	▼ 1	17 · 3d	37%	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
Tunisia	Africa	Medium 0.58	7.71	7.23	−0.48	−6.2	▼ 1	14 · 1d	37%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.9 · Foundational
Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.57	7.32	6.84	−0.48	−6.6	▼ 1	17	36%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.9 · Nascent
Vanuatu	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.44	2.93	2.45	−0.48	−16.3	▲ 4	15	17%	Resource Infrastructure 0.1 · Inception
Oman	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.60	8.03	7.57	−0.45	−5.6	▲ 1	19 · 1d	42%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional
Nepal	South Asia	Medium 0.45	4.96	4.51	−0.45	−9.2	▼ 2	12 · 2d	23%	Resource Infrastructure 2 · Inception
Botswana	Africa	Medium 0.48	6.08	5.64	−0.43	−7.1	0	10 · 2d	31%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.8 · Nascent
Antigua & Barbuda	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.44	4.36	3.93	−0.43	−9.9	▲ 3	9 · 2d	24%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Morocco	Africa	Medium 0.57	9.36	8.94	−0.42	−4.4	0	7 · 2d	44%	Population Health 7.7 · Foundational
Sri Lanka	South Asia	Medium 0.49	7.25	6.83	−0.42	−5.8	▼ 1	11 · 2d	35%	Resource Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
Gabon	Africa	Medium 0.39	3.94	3.52	−0.42	−10.6	▲ 3	8	19%	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
South Africa	Africa	Medium 0.57	10.77	10.37	−0.41	−3.8	▼ 5	13 · 1d	46%	Population Health 8.4 · Foundational
Seychelles	Africa	Medium 0.44	5.27	4.87	−0.41	−7.7	▼ 1	11 · 2d	29%	Resource Infrastructure 0.3 · Inception
Qatar	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.55	9.39	8.99	−0.40	−4.3	0	8	44%	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8.6 · Foundational
Bangladesh	South Asia	Medium 0.45	6.73	6.33	−0.40	−5.9	0	14	33%	Internal Security & Order 5.8 · Nascent
Uzbekistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.43	5.92	5.52	−0.40	−6.8	▼ 1	13 · 2d	29%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5.1 · Nascent
Barbados	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.43	5.56	5.15	−0.40	−7.2	▲ 1	7 · 2d	29%	Resource Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Saudi Arabia	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.59	11.19	10.81	−0.39	−3.4	0	12 · 2d	50%	Population Health 10.5 · Transitional
Namibia	Africa	Medium 0.44	5.95	5.56	−0.39	−6.6	▼ 3	8 · 1d	33%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.6 · Nascent
India	South Asia	Medium 0.53	12.61	12.23	−0.38	−3.0	0	12	46%	Population Health 7.5 · Foundational
Kyrgyzstan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.37	4.77	4.40	−0.37	−7.8	▼ 1	13	24%	Resource Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
Dominica	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.36	3.87	3.50	−0.37	−9.6	▲ 6	6	21%	Resource Infrastructure 0.1 · Inception
Tuvalu	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.33	2.12	1.75	−0.37	−17.3	▲ 6	4	12%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Mauritius	Africa	Medium 0.47	8.08	7.72	−0.36	−4.5	▲ 1	9 · 1d	42%	Resource Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception
Bahamas	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.39	5.16	4.81	−0.36	−6.9	▼ 4	11	29%	Resource Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Bhutan	South Asia	Medium 0.35	3.93	3.57	−0.36	−9.2	▲ 6	8 · 1d	21%	Resource Infrastructure 1.2 · Inception
Israel	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.59	14.46	14.11	−0.35	−2.4	0	12 · 1d	56%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional
United Arab Emirates	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.57	11.94	11.59	−0.35	−2.9	0	15 · 1d	54%	Population Health 11.5 · Transitional
Marshall Islands	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.33	2.48	2.13	−0.35	−14.1	▲ 4	9 · 1d	18%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Dominican Republic	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.39	6.82	6.49	−0.34	−4.9	▲ 2	8 · 1d	35%	Resource Infrastructure 4.7 · Nascent
Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.35	6.65	6.32	−0.33	−4.9	▲ 1	10 · 1d	30%	Resource Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Jamaica	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.36	6.24	5.92	−0.33	−5.3	0	12 · 2d	30%	Resource Infrastructure 5 · Nascent
El Salvador	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.35	5.68	5.35	−0.33	−5.8	▲ 4	16 · 1d	29%	Resource Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception
Guatemala	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.35	5.67	5.34	−0.33	−5.8	▲ 3	13 · 1d	29%	Resource Infrastructure 4.5 · Nascent
Türkiye	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.49	12.18	11.86	−0.32	−2.7	▼ 1	12 · 2d	50%	Population Health 11.3 · Transitional
Trinidad & Tobago	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.35	6.69	6.38	−0.32	−4.7	▲ 2	15	32%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.8 · Nascent
Honduras	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.32	5.05	4.73	−0.32	−6.3	▼ 1	10 · 5d	25%	Resource Infrastructure 3 · Nascent
Azerbaijan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.36	6.79	6.48	−0.31	−4.6	▲ 2	5	33%	Population Health 7.3 · Foundational
Moldova	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.32	6.34	6.04	−0.30	−4.7	▲ 1	11 · 3d	30%	Resource Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
Mongolia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.31	5.73	5.43	−0.30	−5.3	▲ 3	5 · 2d	26%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.8 · Nascent
Palau	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.28	2.84	2.54	−0.30	−10.5	▲ 10	7 · 2d	16%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Philippines	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.37	8.83	8.54	−0.29	−3.3	▲ 1	9 · 2d	39%	Population Health 7.3 · Foundational
Kazakhstan	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.35	8.14	7.85	−0.29	−3.6	▲ 1	14 · 1d	36%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8.3 · Foundational
Myanmar	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.28	3.89	3.59	−0.29	−7.6	▲ 9	10 · 1d	20%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.3 · Nascent
Solomon Islands	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.27	2.91	2.62	−0.29	−9.9	▲ 9	9 · 2d	17%	Resource Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
Cambodia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.28	4.93	4.65	−0.28	−5.7	▲ 2	8	25%	Resource Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Nicaragua	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.28	4.37	4.09	−0.28	−6.4	▲ 5	8 · 2d	24%	Resource Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
Belarus	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.30	6.90	6.63	−0.27	−3.9	▲ 3	13 · 3d	33%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.6 · Nascent
Holy See	Europe	Low 0.30	1.85	1.58	−0.27	−14.4	▲ 9	1	6%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Fiji	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.27	5.16	4.90	−0.26	−5.1	▲ 2	9	26%	Resource Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Bolivia	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.27	5.11	4.84	−0.26	−5.2	▲ 1	8	25%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.9 · Nascent
Belize	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.26	4.03	3.77	−0.26	−6.5	▲ 7	8 · 1d	23%	Resource Infrastructure 1.6 · Inception
Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.43	14.03	13.78	−0.25	−1.8	0	8 · 2d	57%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.4 · Foundational
Mexico	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.36	10.85	10.60	−0.25	−2.3	▼ 2	12	47%	Internal Security & Order 8.4 · Foundational
Ukraine	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.29	9.40	9.16	−0.25	−2.6	0	8	37%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7.9 · Foundational
Ecuador	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.28	6.76	6.51	−0.25	−3.6	▲ 5	7	34%	Internal Security & Order 6.8 · Foundational
Brunei	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.27	5.60	5.34	−0.25	−4.6	▲ 5	10	29%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.9 · Nascent
Indonesia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.32	9.97	9.72	−0.24	−2.5	▼ 1	7	42%	Population Health 8.1 · Foundational
Vietnam	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.32	9.68	9.44	−0.24	−2.5	▼ 1	11 · 1d	43%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 9.5 · Transitional
Malta	Europe	Low 0.34	8.89	8.64	−0.24	−2.8	▲ 1	8 · 3d	45%	Resource Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception
Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.28	7.55	7.30	−0.24	−3.2	▲ 2	9 · 1d	35%	Resource Infrastructure 6 · Nascent
Suriname	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	4.04	3.80	−0.24	−5.9	▲ 8	9	21%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent
Cyprus	Europe	Low 0.32	8.51	8.28	−0.23	−2.8	0	8 · 1d	45%	Resource Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception
Guyana	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	4.53	4.30	−0.23	−5.2	▲ 6	5 · 1d	24%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.7 · Nascent
North Macedonia	Europe	Low 0.25	6.61	6.39	−0.22	−3.4	▲ 5	9 · 1d	32%	Resource Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
Paraguay	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	5.79	5.57	−0.22	−3.8	▲ 5	7	31%	Resource Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
Singapore	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.43	15.20	14.99	−0.21	−1.4	▼ 1	9 · 3d	63%	Resource Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational
Thailand	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.30	10.70	10.49	−0.21	−2.0	▲ 1	9 · 1d	47%	Internal Security & Order 10.2 · Transitional
Costa Rica	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.26	7.76	7.55	−0.21	−2.7	▲ 2	9 · 2d	39%	Resource Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
Panama	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.27	7.17	6.96	−0.21	−2.9	▲ 4	3 · 2d	40%	Resource Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
China	China	Medium 0.36	15.64	15.45	−0.20	−1.3	0	4	59%	Population Health 11.2 · Transitional
Czechia	Europe	Low 0.30	11.51	11.31	−0.20	−1.8	▼ 1	6 · 1d	48%	Resource Infrastructure 8.8 · Foundational
Peru	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.25	8.61	8.41	−0.20	−2.3	▲ 1	9	41%	Internal Security & Order 8.2 · Foundational
Andorra	Europe	Low 0.22	5.15	4.96	−0.20	−3.8	▲ 5	7	28%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Malaysia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.28	11.48	11.29	−0.19	−1.6	0	7 · 1d	49%	Population Health 10.9 · Transitional
Colombia	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.25	9.11	8.92	−0.19	−2.1	▲ 1	12	41%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.6 · Transitional
Bulgaria	Europe	Low 0.23	8.95	8.76	−0.19	−2.1	▲ 2	8	39%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.6 · Foundational
South Korea	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.36	16.00	15.82	−0.18	−1.1	0	6	62%	Resource Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
Poland	Europe	Low 0.27	12.39	12.21	−0.18	−1.5	0	4	49%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11.3 · Transitional
Uruguay	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	8.54	8.37	−0.18	−2.1	▲ 1	10 · 1d	43%	Resource Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
Kosovo	Europe	Low 0.18	4.70	4.52	−0.18	−3.9	▲ 4	6	23%	Resource Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
Belgium	Europe	Low 0.29	13.46	13.29	−0.17	−1.3	0	10 · 2d	55%	Resource Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
Russia	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.24	12.30	12.13	−0.17	−1.4	0	4	46%	Population Health 9.6 · Transitional
Brazil	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.25	11.69	11.52	−0.17	−1.5	▼ 1	9 · 2d	47%	Internal Security & Order 10.3 · Transitional
Albania	Europe	Low 0.19	6.13	5.96	−0.17	−2.8	▲ 2	5 · 2d	30%	Resource Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent
Denmark	Europe	Low 0.31	13.94	13.78	−0.16	−1.2	0	9 · 1d	60%	Resource Infrastructure 9.4 · Transitional
Luxembourg	Europe	Low 0.22	10.79	10.63	−0.16	−1.5	▲ 1	4	46%	Resource Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	Low 0.17	5.80	5.63	−0.16	−2.8	▲ 6	2 · 2d	27%	Resource Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
Japan	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.31	16.26	16.11	−0.15	−0.9	0	5	65%	Resource Infrastructure 11.4 · Transitional
Chile	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	10.61	10.46	−0.15	−1.4	▲ 1	4 · 1d	51%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.4 · Transitional
Spain	Europe	Low 0.25	13.78	13.64	−0.14	−1.0	0	5	57%	Resource Infrastructure 11.7 · Transitional
Italy	Europe	Low 0.23	13.72	13.58	−0.14	−1.0	0	7	54%	Resource Infrastructure 11.7 · Transitional
Romania	Europe	Low 0.18	10.16	10.02	−0.14	−1.3	0	5	41%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.9 · Foundational
Slovakia	Europe	Low 0.19	10.10	9.95	−0.14	−1.4	0	5 · 2d	43%	Resource Infrastructure 8.4 · Foundational
Montenegro	Europe	Low 0.16	6.35	6.21	−0.14	−2.3	▲ 2	3	31%	Resource Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
France	Europe	Low 0.26	16.64	16.51	−0.13	−0.8	0	2	62%	Resource Infrastructure 12.2 · Established
Germany	Europe	Low 0.26	16.36	16.23	−0.13	−0.8	0	6	62%	Resource Infrastructure 13.2 · Established
Australia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	14.95	14.81	−0.13	−0.9	0	7	61%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.4 · Established
New Zealand	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.23	12.83	12.70	−0.13	−1.0	0	6	56%	Resource Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional
Ireland	Europe	Low 0.20	12.08	11.95	−0.13	−1.1	▲ 1	9 · 1d	51%	Resource Infrastructure 7 · Foundational
Estonia	Europe	Low 0.19	11.49	11.36	−0.13	−1.1	▲ 1	6	49%	Resource Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational
Lithuania	Europe	Low 0.19	10.75	10.61	−0.13	−1.2	▲ 2	7	47%	Resource Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Greece	Europe	Low 0.19	10.61	10.48	−0.13	−1.2	▲ 1	0	49%	Resource Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional
Hungary	Europe	Low 0.18	10.51	10.39	−0.13	−1.2	▲ 1	5	45%	Resource Infrastructure 9.2 · Transitional
Switzerland	Europe	Low 0.21	14.73	14.62	−0.12	−0.8	0	1	58%	Resource Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational
Portugal	Europe	Low 0.18	11.68	11.56	−0.12	−1.0	▲ 1	2 · 1d	50%	Resource Infrastructure 8 · Foundational
Serbia	Europe	Low 0.14	8.97	8.85	−0.12	−1.3	▲ 2	10	38%	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 · Foundational
Liechtenstein	Europe	Low 0.14	7.22	7.10	−0.12	−1.7	▲ 5	5 · 1d	35%	Resource Infrastructure 0.2 · Inception
San Marino	Europe	Low 0.13	5.03	4.90	−0.12	−2.4	▲ 7	5	26%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Austria	Europe	Low 0.19	12.81	12.69	−0.11	−0.9	0	10 · 1d	53%	Resource Infrastructure 9 · Foundational
Slovenia	Europe	Low 0.16	10.48	10.36	−0.11	−1.1	0	1	46%	Resource Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational
Latvia	Europe	Low 0.15	9.89	9.78	−0.11	−1.1	▲ 1	11	45%	Resource Infrastructure 4.5 · Nascent
Monaco	Europe	Low 0.12	5.91	5.81	−0.11	−1.8	▲ 6	9	32%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
United States	North America	Low 0.20	18.03	17.93	−0.10	−0.5	0	5 · 1d	64%	Early Childhood Development 13.3 · Established
Netherlands	Europe	Low 0.22	15.50	15.39	−0.10	−0.7	0	1	64%	Resource Infrastructure 12.8 · Established
Croatia	Europe	Low 0.14	9.53	9.43	−0.10	−1.1	0	7 · 1d	43%	Resource Infrastructure 7.8 · Foundational
Sweden	Europe	Low 0.17	15.30	15.21	−0.09	−0.6	0	4	59%	Resource Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional
Finland	Europe	Low 0.16	14.52	14.43	−0.09	−0.6	0	9	58%	Resource Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional
Iceland	Europe	Low 0.13	9.63	9.55	−0.09	−0.9	▲ 1	5	48%	Resource Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
Canada	North America	Low 0.12	15.06	15.00	−0.06	−0.4	▲ 1	7	59%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.4 · Established
Norway	Europe	Low 0.12	14.62	14.56	−0.06	−0.4	0	5	60%	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 14.6 · Established
United Kingdom	Europe	Low 0.10	16.45	16.40	−0.05	−0.3	0	5	60%	Resource Infrastructure 14.1 · Established

Settings of this run

Load: 10 capability groups singled out, 64 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out: Resource InfrastructureHighAgriculture & Food InfrastructureHighWater, Sanitation & Waste InfrastructureHighEarly Childhood DevelopmentHighPopulation HealthHighDiplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksHighInternal Security & OrderHighGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationHighFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceMediumTrade Facilitation & LogisticsHigh
Buffers: Agriculture & Food InfrastructureWater, Sanitation & Waste InfrastructureNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceTrade Facilitation & Logistics
Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.
Exposure: staple foods among the top five imports (35%); regional exposure (30%); little renewable water per head (ranked) (25%); share of population aged under 15 (ranked) (10%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
Likelihood: 4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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Food and water system shock