Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Russia and Eurasia · TKM

Turkmenistan

Baseline index 3.55Rank 159 of 197NascentRussia and EurasiaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years22.0rank 83 of 197 · 3 years: 22.3
Worst case−16.2%Food and water shock · tail −16.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−28.4rank 197 of 197 · 3 years: −28.6
Best case−3Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed15%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.75expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Geoeconomic confrontation, AI diffusion shock, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; share of exports going to china and the united states; no coastline; industry as a share of gdp; consumer price inflation; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Turkmenistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Food and water shock S11−0.58
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.57
Disaster in the core S10−0.57
Pandemic S14−0.55
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.54
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.51
AI diffusion shock S13−0.49
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.47
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.40
Global financial crisis S03−0.38
Mass displacement S08−0.33
Hybrid campaign S06−0.30
Energy supply shock S09−0.19
Chokepoint closure S05−0.11
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.56−0.58−0.73−0.32▲ 314Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3.2 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.50−0.57−0.65−0.29▼ 112Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.66−0.57−0.72−0.32▼ 318Financial System Depth & Access 3 · Nascent
Pandemic S14Medium 0.44−0.55−0.64−0.28▲ 315Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.46−0.54−0.62−0.28▲ 612Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.56−0.51−0.55−0.24014Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.44−0.49−0.56−0.25▲ 213Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.37−0.47−0.53−0.23▲ 913Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.57−0.40−0.50−0.23▲ 49Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Low 0.30−0.38−0.44−0.19▲ 1612Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.47−0.33−0.42−0.18011Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.9 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.32−0.30−0.34−0.15▼ 210Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.2 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09Low 0.18−0.19−0.23−0.10▲ 196Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Low 0.11−0.11−0.14−0.06▲ 195Maritime Power 2 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Food and water shock−0.07−0.65−0.29−0.80−0.76−0.82−0.38−0.65−0.75
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.39−0.32−0.29·−0.76−0.73−0.76−0.74−1.11
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.17−0.35−0.87−0.39−0.97−0.52−0.39−0.39
Pandemic−0.34−0.31−0.25−0.75−0.66−0.71−0.66−0.65−0.65
Infrastructure collapse−0.38−0.84−0.30−0.30−0.30−0.75−0.70−0.68−0.60
Legitimacy crisis−0.23·−0.78−0.39−0.91−1.24−1.04··
AI diffusion shock−0.35−0.29−0.26−0.77−0.57−0.79−0.67−0.37−0.33
Sovereign funding crisis−0.05−0.39−0.22−0.54−0.49−0.67−0.81−0.49−0.56
Single-supplier cut-off−0.39−0.23−0.30−0.37·−0.75·−0.76−0.76
Global financial crisis−0.12−0.20−0.18−0.39−0.39−0.49−0.66−0.56−0.45
Mass displacement·−0.33−0.25−0.68−0.56−0.76−0.32−0.04·
Hybrid campaign−0.15−0.50−0.55·−0.56−0.53·−0.21−0.21
Energy supply shock−0.04−0.26−0.10−0.11−0.11−0.24−0.29−0.28−0.25
Chokepoint closure−0.01−0.18−0.15·−0.08−0.17−0.07−0.14−0.18

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Turkmenistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Sovereign debt reset S19−2.5
Great-power détente S18−7.2
Emerging-market breakout S20−12.4
100-day pandemic defence S24−17.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−24.5
Yield revolution S22−26.6
Digital state leapfrog S23−29.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−35.5
Middle East settlement S21−51.4
Energy abundance S16−73.6
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−2.51.33.813170Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−7.27.915.114152Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Loser−12.48.020.519190Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Loser−17.35.322.612197Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−24.58.132.614182Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−26.65.932.614195Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−29.25.434.611197Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−35.52.237.78176Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−51.43.454.920197Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−73.61.675.214194Energy Technologies 1 · Inception