Scenarios 2027 / Results / S17

Capture test · S17 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Biomedical breakthrough wave

E Health↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers42net position above +10
Mixed87between the two
Losers68net position below -10
Largest net gain+30United States

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−30−20−100+10+20Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +29.8Canada: +26.2North America mean: +28.0United StatesEurope 42France: +19.7United Kingdom: +22.3Germany: +24.7Netherlands: +24.2Sweden: +24.1Switzerland: +18.8Norway: +20.5Finland: +20.8Denmark: +23.2Spain: +9.3Italy: −3.1Belgium: +14.7Austria: +13.2Poland: +8.7Ireland: +12.7Portugal: −0.8Czechia: +5.4Estonia: +5.8Luxembourg: +1.4Lithuania: +4.6Greece: −12.8Hungary: +3.5Slovenia: −5.1Romania: −9.7Slovakia: −3.8Latvia: −4.3Iceland: +0.9Croatia: −12.1Serbia: −9.0Bulgaria: −11.2Malta: −11.6Cyprus: −9.5Liechtenstein: −17.1North Macedonia: −21.4Montenegro: −24.8Albania: −26.7Monaco: −28.3Bosnia & Herzegovina: −33.9Andorra: −25.8San Marino: −30.6Kosovo: −23.0Holy See: −39.8Europe mean: −2.0Bosnia & HerzegovinaHoly SeeChina 1China: +5.0China mean: +5.0Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +10.0South Korea: +12.7Singapore: +16.7Australia: +26.2Taiwan: +13.2New Zealand: +17.8Malaysia: +9.6Thailand: −2.1Indonesia: +4.0Vietnam: 0.0Philippines: +4.4Mongolia: −5.5Brunei: −13.7Fiji: −18.3Cambodia: −12.2North Korea: −33.8Myanmar: −23.7Papua New Guinea: −9.9Laos: −14.7Samoa: −21.2Tonga: −23.6Timor-Leste: −17.1Vanuatu: −17.7Solomon Islands: −19.3Palau: −33.4Marshall Islands: −22.7Micronesia: −22.8Kiribati: −19.5Tuvalu: −28.1Nauru: −16.8Indo-Pacific mean: −8.7AustraliaNorth KoreaSouth Asia 8India: +18.6Pakistan: +5.7Sri Lanka: −11.4Bangladesh: −5.7Nepal: −9.6Maldives: −9.3Bhutan: −12.0Afghanistan: −2.6South Asia mean: −3.3Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +18.3Türkiye: +14.9United Arab Emirates: +24.6Saudi Arabia: +18.7Qatar: +17.5Egypt: +10.6Iran: +2.6Oman: +7.6Kuwait: +7.3Jordan: +8.3Bahrain: +2.9Iraq: +1.9Lebanon: −20.8Palestine: +3.2Syria: −12.2Yemen: −8.4Gulf and Middle East mean: +6.1Africa 53South Africa: +27.7Morocco: +11.0Mauritius: +2.2Tunisia: +3.2Nigeria: +15.7Kenya: +16.8Ghana: +10.9Algeria: +2.1Senegal: +14.5Botswana: +3.9Namibia: +10.2Rwanda: +18.8Tanzania: +10.6Ethiopia: +10.2Uganda: +17.1Côte d'Ivoire: +11.3Seychelles: −9.3Zambia: +12.2Cabo Verde: −6.5Angola: +9.8Cameroon: +7.4Zimbabwe: +5.1Mozambique: +9.4Benin: +9.4Togo: −4.3Gabon: −2.5Madagascar: +0.6Malawi: +0.4Eswatini: +0.3Sierra Leone: +9.1Mauritania: −5.9Burkina Faso: +4.0Lesotho: −7.9Mali: +4.9Gambia: +0.9Djibouti: −6.4Congo: −7.6Guinea: −3.4Niger: +5.5Libya: −9.1Liberia: +2.1DR Congo: +6.5São Tomé & Príncipe: +2.2Equatorial Guinea: −11.9Sudan: 0.0Burundi: −3.3Comoros: −12.2Chad: +2.4Guinea-Bissau: −0.7Eritrea: −8.2Central African Rep.: −6.6Somalia: −1.5South Sudan: −0.6Africa mean: +3.2South AfricaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +10.1Mexico: +14.4Chile: +2.9Argentina: −0.3Colombia: −0.5Peru: +2.9Uruguay: −2.8Costa Rica: −6.5Panama: −11.3Dominican Republic: −5.9Ecuador: −10.4Trinidad & Tobago: −16.2Jamaica: −13.7Cuba: −19.1Paraguay: −18.3El Salvador: −14.2Guatemala: −7.3Barbados: −21.7Bahamas: −15.9Bolivia: −13.8Honduras: −10.4Venezuela: −22.2Guyana: −18.4Nicaragua: −12.6Antigua & Barbuda: −24.3Grenada: −27.6Suriname: −16.5Belize: −11.7Dominica: −28.2Saint Lucia: −33.0Saint Kitts & Nevis: −28.3Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −29.0Haiti: −14.5Latin America and Caribbean mean: −12.9Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: +5.5Ukraine: −8.4Kazakhstan: −3.9Georgia: −14.1Belarus: −15.1Azerbaijan: −16.2Armenia: −22.2Moldova: −18.1Uzbekistan: −11.6Kyrgyzstan: −17.2Tajikistan: −8.5Turkmenistan: −24.5Russia and Eurasia mean: −12.9
Lowest: Holy See, Bosnia & Herzegovina, North Korea. Highest: Australia, South Africa, United States.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−200+20Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 77, net position +29.80France (Europe): readiness 82.9, net position +19.70United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 82.4, net position +22.30Germany (Europe): readiness 81.5, net position +24.70Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 83.4, net position +10.00South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 81.4, net position +12.70China (China): readiness 65.4, net position +5.00Netherlands (Europe): readiness 83.5, net position +24.20Sweden (Europe): readiness 81.3, net position +24.10Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 78.2, net position +16.70Canada (North America): readiness 80.5, net position +26.20Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 79.4, net position +26.20Switzerland (Europe): readiness 82.1, net position +18.80Norway (Europe): readiness 70.2, net position +20.50Finland (Europe): readiness 73.7, net position +20.80Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 75, net position +18.30Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 71.2, net position +13.20Denmark (Europe): readiness 78.6, net position +23.20Spain (Europe): readiness 71.6, net position +9.30Italy (Europe): readiness 69.1, net position −3.10Belgium (Europe): readiness 74.4, net position +14.70New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 62.8, net position +17.80Austria (Europe): readiness 70.1, net position +13.20India (South Asia): readiness 49.3, net position +18.60Poland (Europe): readiness 60.1, net position +8.70Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 54.6, net position +5.50Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 56.8, net position +14.90Ireland (Europe): readiness 62.8, net position +12.70United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 51.5, net position +24.60Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 57.3, net position +10.10Portugal (Europe): readiness 57.2, net position −0.80Czechia (Europe): readiness 56.9, net position +5.40Estonia (Europe): readiness 52.1, net position +5.80Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 53.2, net position +9.60Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 49.1, net position +18.70Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 52.3, net position +14.40Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 45, net position +1.40South Africa (Africa): readiness 51.1, net position +27.70Lithuania (Europe): readiness 51, net position +4.60Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 51.7, net position −2.10Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 46.2, net position +2.90Greece (Europe): readiness 47.3, net position −12.80Hungary (Europe): readiness 55.4, net position +3.50Slovenia (Europe): readiness 52.7, net position −5.10Romania (Europe): readiness 48.3, net position −9.70Slovakia (Europe): readiness 45.1, net position −3.80Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 46.3, net position +4.00Latvia (Europe): readiness 42.8, net position −4.30Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 46.8, net position 0.00Iceland (Europe): readiness 48, net position +0.90Croatia (Europe): readiness 41.4, net position −12.10Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 41.9, net position −8.40Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 38, net position +17.50Morocco (Africa): readiness 39.3, net position +11.00Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 49.7, net position −0.30Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 40.6, net position −0.50Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 42.4, net position +10.60Serbia (Europe): readiness 43.6, net position −9.00Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 41.8, net position −11.20Malta (Europe): readiness 39.7, net position −11.60Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 37.3, net position +4.40Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 37.3, net position +2.90Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.8, net position −2.80Cyprus (Europe): readiness 36.2, net position −9.50Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 40.8, net position +2.60Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 38.3, net position −3.90Mauritius (Africa): readiness 35, net position +2.20Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 31.4, net position +7.60Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 31.6, net position +5.70Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 36.7, net position −6.50Tunisia (Africa): readiness 38.7, net position +3.20Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31, net position −14.10Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 30.2, net position +7.30Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 33.1, net position +8.30Nigeria (Africa): readiness 27.9, net position +15.70Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 27.9, net position +2.90Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 32.7, net position −11.40Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 29.3, net position −17.10Kenya (Africa): readiness 32.3, net position +16.80Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.3, net position −11.30Ghana (Africa): readiness 31.1, net position +10.90Algeria (Africa): readiness 31.4, net position +2.10Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 35.6, net position −15.10Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.9, net position −5.90Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 25.4, net position −16.20Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.9, net position −10.40Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 32.5, net position −5.70Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.6, net position −16.20Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.1, net position −22.20North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 27, net position −21.40Senegal (Africa): readiness 29.4, net position +14.50Montenegro (Europe): readiness 26.3, net position −24.80Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.9, net position −18.10Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.4, net position −13.70Albania (Europe): readiness 22.3, net position −26.70Botswana (Africa): readiness 23.8, net position +3.90Namibia (Africa): readiness 22.6, net position +10.20Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 40.6, net position −19.10Rwanda (Africa): readiness 30.6, net position +18.80Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 28, net position −11.60Monaco (Europe): readiness 28.2, net position −28.30Tanzania (Africa): readiness 24.7, net position +10.60Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 23.5, net position −33.90Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.4, net position −18.30Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 23.8, net position −5.50Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 24.3, net position +10.20El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.8, net position −14.20Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.3, net position −7.30Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22.4, net position −13.70Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.4, net position −21.70Uganda (Africa): readiness 26.1, net position +17.10Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position +11.30Seychelles (Africa): readiness 22.2, net position −9.30Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.5, net position −15.90Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.5, net position −18.30Andorra (Europe): readiness 24.2, net position −25.80Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.5, net position −13.80Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.2, net position −10.40San Marino (Europe): readiness 22.9, net position −30.60Nepal (South Asia): readiness 19.9, net position −9.60Zambia (Africa): readiness 20.4, net position +12.20Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.2, net position −12.20Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 19.5, net position −17.20Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 17.8, net position −6.50Kosovo (Europe): readiness 18.4, net position −23.00Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.5, net position +1.90Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 24.2, net position −20.80Maldives (South Asia): readiness 19.5, net position −9.30Angola (Africa): readiness 14.4, net position +9.80Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.7, net position −22.20Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.8, net position −18.40Cameroon (Africa): readiness 17.2, net position +7.40Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.7, net position −12.60Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.7, net position −24.30Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 19.9, net position +5.10North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.6, net position −33.80Mozambique (Africa): readiness 17.1, net position +9.40Benin (Africa): readiness 14.6, net position +9.40Togo (Africa): readiness 14.1, net position −4.30Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.5, net position −27.60Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.2, net position −16.50Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.1, net position −11.70Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 16.4, net position −8.50Gabon (Africa): readiness 15.7, net position −2.50Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 15.5, net position −12.00Madagascar (Africa): readiness 16.3, net position +0.60Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.9, net position −23.70Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.4, net position −28.20Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.4, net position −33.00Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.1, net position −28.30Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.9, net position −9.90Malawi (Africa): readiness 17.6, net position +0.40Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15, net position −29.00Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 16.4, net position +3.20Eswatini (Africa): readiness 14.6, net position +0.30Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.1, net position −14.70Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 14.2, net position +9.10Mauritania (Africa): readiness 13, net position −5.90Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 13.7, net position −24.50Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.3, net position −21.20Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 14.2, net position +4.00Lesotho (Africa): readiness 12.8, net position −7.90Mali (Africa): readiness 13.5, net position +4.90Gambia (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position +0.90Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.9, net position −23.60Djibouti (Africa): readiness 10, net position −6.40Congo (Africa): readiness 11.3, net position −7.60Guinea (Africa): readiness 12.5, net position −3.40Niger (Africa): readiness 11.8, net position +5.50Libya (Africa): readiness 13.5, net position −9.10Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10, net position −17.10Liberia (Africa): readiness 11.3, net position +2.10Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11, net position −17.70Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.9, net position −19.30DR Congo (Africa): readiness 11.9, net position +6.50São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 11.5, net position +2.20Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.5, net position −33.40Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 9.3, net position −11.90Sudan (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position 0.00Burundi (Africa): readiness 8.2, net position −3.30Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.3, net position −22.70Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.2, net position −22.80Comoros (Africa): readiness 8.4, net position −12.20Chad (Africa): readiness 6.8, net position +2.40Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 8.8, net position −12.20Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.1, net position −19.50Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.1, net position −28.10Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 7.3, net position −0.70Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7.5, net position −14.50Eritrea (Africa): readiness 8.6, net position −8.20Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.5, net position −16.80Holy See (Europe): readiness 6.2, net position −39.80Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 5.6, net position −6.60Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 5.2, net position −8.40Somalia (Africa): readiness 4.2, net position −1.50Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 5.8, net position −2.60South Sudan (Africa): readiness 4.3, net position −0.60United StatesAustraliaSouth AfricaBosnia & HerzegovinaNorth KoreaHoly See
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: pension and long-term care liabilities in ageing populations.

Russia and Eurasia 12−12.9
Latin America and Caribbean 33−12.9
Indo-Pacific 30−8.7
South Asia 8−3.3
Europe 42−2.0
Africa 53+3.2
China 1+5.0
Gulf and Middle East 16+6.1
North America 2+28.0

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+29.844.414.67778Population Health 14 · Established
2South AfricaAfricaGainer+27.743.315.65155Population Health 9.3 · Transitional
4AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+26.237.811.67982Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 · Advanced
3CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+26.240.514.38180Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 · Advanced
5GermanyEuropeGainer+24.737.412.88285Population Health 15.7 · Advanced
6United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastGainer+24.625.91.35264Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
7NetherlandsEuropeGainer+24.236.512.38484Biotechnology & Health Technologies 16.6 · Advanced
8SwedenEuropeGainer+24.134.010.08187Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.6 · Advanced
9DenmarkEuropeGainer+23.232.99.87987Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15 · Advanced
10United KingdomEuropeGainer+22.338.215.98280Population Health 16 · Advanced
11FinlandEuropeGainer+20.832.912.17485Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13 · Established
12NorwayEuropeGainer+20.531.511.07085Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established
13FranceEuropeGainer+19.736.116.38380Population Health 16.3 · Advanced
15RwandaAfricaGainer+18.823.44.53141Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
14SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+18.831.012.28284Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16 · Advanced
16Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastGainer+18.727.99.24959Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
17IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+18.633.915.34953Population Health 8.3 · Foundational
18IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+18.331.813.57572Social Infrastructure 14.8 · Established
19New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+17.831.213.56379Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
20QatarGulf and Middle EastGainer+17.519.01.43855Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
21UgandaAfricaGainer+17.118.81.72633Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent
22KenyaAfricaGainer+16.823.56.73240Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
23SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+16.724.07.37887Biotechnology & Health Technologies 14.4 · Established
24NigeriaAfricaGainer+15.723.17.32835Population Health 4.3 · Nascent
25TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+14.932.817.95759Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
26BelgiumEuropeGainer+14.732.918.27476Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 14.3 · Established
27SenegalAfricaGainer+14.521.77.12937Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
28MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+14.433.318.95255Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
30AustriaEuropeGainer+13.229.015.87080Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12.8 · Established
29TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+13.230.717.57174Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established
32IrelandEuropeGainer+12.730.317.66374Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional
31South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+12.725.512.88181Population Health 16 · Advanced
33ZambiaAfricaGainer+12.215.93.72031Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
34Côte d'IvoireAfricaGainer+11.316.04.71933Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
35MoroccoAfricaGainer+11.030.919.93949Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
36GhanaAfricaGainer+10.923.712.83140Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
38TanzaniaAfricaGainer+10.618.07.42535Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
37EgyptGulf and Middle EastGainer+10.626.816.24243Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 · Foundational
40EthiopiaAfricaGainer+10.218.07.92430Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
39NamibiaAfricaGainer+10.218.78.52343Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
41BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+10.130.220.15759Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 · Transitional
42JapanIndo-PacificGainer+10.024.414.38382Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16.3 · Advanced
43AngolaAfricaMixed+9.811.71.91427Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
44MalaysiaIndo-PacificMixed+9.627.117.65362Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
46BeninAfricaMixed+9.412.02.61529Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
45MozambiqueAfricaMixed+9.414.24.81725Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
47SpainEuropeMixed+9.332.222.97270Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established
48Sierra LeoneAfricaMixed+9.111.92.81424Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
49PolandEuropeMixed+8.733.925.26066Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional
50JordanGulf and Middle EastMixed+8.319.611.33343Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
51OmanGulf and Middle EastMixed+7.616.79.13150Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception
52CameroonAfricaMixed+7.414.16.71727Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
53KuwaitGulf and Middle EastMixed+7.315.68.33044Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
54DR CongoAfricaMixed+6.59.63.11216Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
55EstoniaEuropeMixed+5.825.920.15275Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
56PakistanSouth AsiaMixed+5.722.216.63234Population Health 5.3 · Nascent
58NigerAfricaMixed+5.59.43.91220Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
57RussiaRussia and EurasiaMixed+5.535.029.55556Population Health 10 · Transitional
59CzechiaEuropeMixed+5.430.825.45766Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
60ZimbabweAfricaMixed+5.116.111.02026Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
61ChinaChinaMixed+5.026.721.76566Population Health 11.7 · Transitional
62MaliAfricaMixed+4.911.06.11422Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
63LithuaniaEuropeMixed+4.631.426.85167Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
64PhilippinesIndo-PacificMixed+4.422.017.63749Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
66Burkina FasoAfricaMixed+4.011.17.11423Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
65IndonesiaIndo-PacificMixed+4.025.521.54652Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
67BotswanaAfricaMixed+3.919.715.92446Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
68HungaryEuropeMixed+3.534.430.95561Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 · Transitional
70PalestineGulf and Middle EastMixed+3.28.95.71627Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
69TunisiaAfricaMixed+3.226.923.73946Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
73BahrainGulf and Middle EastMixed+2.913.510.62850Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
72PeruLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.923.921.03749Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
71ChileLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.922.319.44664Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
74IranGulf and Middle EastMixed+2.623.921.34138Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational
75ChadAfricaMixed+2.45.53.1715Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
77São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaMixed+2.29.16.91225Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
76MauritiusAfricaMixed+2.223.020.83558Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
79LiberiaAfricaMixed+2.19.47.31121Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
78AlgeriaAfricaMixed+2.121.519.43139Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
80IraqGulf and Middle EastMixed+1.912.710.82027Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
81LuxembourgEuropeMixed+1.419.317.94574Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
83GambiaAfricaMixed+0.911.510.61523Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
82IcelandEuropeMixed+0.919.518.64873Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
84MadagascarAfricaMixed+0.611.911.21624Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
85MalawiAfricaMixed+0.411.811.41824Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
86EswatiniAfricaMixed+0.312.512.21527Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
88SudanAfricaMixed0.07.97.91014Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
87VietnamIndo-PacificMixed0.021.521.54753Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational
89ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−0.325.425.75051Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8.7 · Foundational
90ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−0.523.323.84153Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 · Foundational
91South SudanAfricaMixed−0.63.54.148Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
92Guinea-BissauAfricaMixed−0.75.96.6715Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
93PortugalEuropeMixed−0.825.326.15768Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 · Transitional
94SomaliaAfricaMixed−1.53.55.049Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
95ThailandIndo-PacificMixed−2.123.325.55257Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional
96GabonAfricaMixed−2.512.014.51626Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
97AfghanistanSouth AsiaMixed−2.64.57.1610Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
98UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−2.820.022.84061Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
99ItalyEuropeMixed−3.127.730.86963Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
100BurundiAfricaMixed−3.36.19.3817Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
101GuineaAfricaMixed−3.49.913.31320Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
102SlovakiaEuropeMixed−3.823.527.34562Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
103KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaMixed−3.922.526.43850Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
105TogoAfricaMixed−4.310.114.31427Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
104LatviaEuropeMixed−4.324.929.24364Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
106SloveniaEuropeMixed−5.122.327.45367Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational
107MongoliaIndo-PacificMixed−5.515.721.12441Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
108BangladeshSouth AsiaMixed−5.718.424.13336Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
110MauritaniaAfricaMixed−5.910.516.41322Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
109Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−5.916.622.52544Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
111DjiboutiAfricaMixed−6.48.114.51021Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
113Cabo VerdeAfricaMixed−6.512.318.81838Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
112Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−6.517.123.63753Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
114Central African Rep.AfricaMixed−6.64.711.3612Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
115GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.312.519.82134Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
116CongoAfricaMixed−7.68.015.61121Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
117LesothoAfricaMixed−7.911.018.91326Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
118EritreaAfricaMixed−8.26.414.6913Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
120YemenGulf and Middle EastMixed−8.43.311.759Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
119UkraineRussia and EurasiaMixed−8.428.036.44249Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational
121TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMixed−8.59.618.11629Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
122SerbiaEuropeMixed−9.025.734.74453Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
123LibyaAfricaMixed−9.19.618.81417Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
125MaldivesSouth AsiaMixed−9.310.519.82036Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
124SeychellesAfricaMixed−9.313.923.22246Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
126CyprusEuropeMixed−9.517.126.63659Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
127NepalSouth AsiaMixed−9.612.321.92031Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
128RomaniaEuropeMixed−9.726.536.24856Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational
129Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMixed−9.98.918.91322Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
131HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−10.411.421.81931Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
130EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−10.416.226.63042Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
132BulgariaEuropeLoser−11.225.336.44253Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
133PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−11.313.825.13048Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
134Sri LankaSouth AsiaLoser−11.417.028.33342Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
136UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−11.613.725.32839Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
135MaltaEuropeLoser−11.618.730.34063Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
137BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−11.79.120.81533Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
138Equatorial GuineaAfricaLoser−11.97.419.4919Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
139BhutanSouth AsiaLoser−12.09.621.61633Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
140CroatiaEuropeLoser−12.122.634.64158Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
143SyriaGulf and Middle EastLoser−12.25.417.6911Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
142ComorosAfricaLoser−12.26.518.6818Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
141CambodiaIndo-PacificLoser−12.29.721.91732Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
144NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−12.610.523.11831Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
145GreeceEuropeLoser−12.823.035.74757Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
147BruneiIndo-PacificLoser−13.79.923.72244Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
146JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−13.714.127.82543Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
148BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−13.811.124.91934Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
149GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaLoser−14.118.933.03150Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
150El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−14.213.027.22338Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
151HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−14.55.419.9813Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
152LaosIndo-PacificLoser−14.78.523.21424Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
153BelarusRussia and EurasiaLoser−15.121.436.53646Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
154BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−15.910.626.51940Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
156Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−16.212.929.02747Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
155AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaLoser−16.213.129.32543Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
157SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−16.510.727.11631Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
158NauruIndo-PacificLoser−16.86.823.6918Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
160Timor-LesteIndo-PacificLoser−17.15.722.81023Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
159LiechtensteinEuropeLoser−17.111.428.52963Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
161KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−17.211.128.32033Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
162VanuatuIndo-PacificLoser−17.76.824.51122Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
163MoldovaRussia and EurasiaLoser−18.117.535.62843Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
165FijiIndo-PacificLoser−18.312.530.81936Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
164ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−18.39.828.12239Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
166GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−18.410.128.51732Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
167CubaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.118.737.94138Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6 · Foundational
168Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificLoser−19.35.925.21122Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
169KiribatiIndo-PacificLoser−19.57.226.7919Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
170LebanonGulf and Middle EastLoser−20.812.433.22424Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
171SamoaIndo-PacificLoser−21.28.830.01327Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
172North MacedoniaEuropeLoser−21.414.535.92746Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
173BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−21.710.432.02246Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
175VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−22.213.435.62222Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
174ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaLoser−22.213.235.52744Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception
176Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificLoser−22.76.329.0918Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
177MicronesiaIndo-PacificLoser−22.86.229.1918Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
178KosovoEuropeLoser−23.012.135.11833Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
179TongaIndo-PacificLoser−23.67.731.31325Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
180MyanmarIndo-PacificLoser−23.79.533.21619Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
181Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−24.37.331.61736Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
182TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−24.58.132.61423Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
183MontenegroEuropeLoser−24.813.938.72645Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
184AndorraEuropeLoser−25.810.836.52451Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
185AlbaniaEuropeLoser−26.710.637.32243Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
186GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−27.68.035.61632Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
187TuvaluIndo-PacificLoser−28.17.235.3919Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
188DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−28.27.936.11533Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
190Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−28.37.535.71531Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
189MonacoEuropeLoser−28.39.938.22855Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
191Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−29.07.836.81531Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
192San MarinoEuropeLoser−30.68.238.82351Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
193Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−33.06.439.41531Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
194PalauIndo-PacificLoser−33.47.841.21223Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
195North KoreaIndo-PacificLoser−33.810.344.11918Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 2.7 · Inception
196Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeLoser−33.911.044.92438Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
197Holy SeeEuropeLoser−39.84.444.2612Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception

Settings of this run

Required
Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health TechnologiesPopulation HealthGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationSocial InfrastructureRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationLifelong Learning & ReskillingLabour & Employment
Gain exposure
regional exposure (40%); low life expectancy at birth (ranked) (40%); adult obesity rate (ranked) (20%).
Loss exposure
Pension and long-term care liabilities in ageing populations: share of population aged 65 and over (ranked) (70%); regional exposure (30%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results