Jamaica · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years18.8rank 97 of 197 · 3 years: 18.1

Worst case−14.0%Infrastructure collapse · tail −13.0%

Opportunity · 10 years−1.2rank 89 of 197 · 3 years: +0.1

Best case+14Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed27%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.92expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; public debt relative to gdp; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Jamaica’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.88

Global financial crisis S03−0.78

Pandemic S14−0.78

Energy supply shock S09−0.76

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.71

AI diffusion shock S13−0.67

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.59

Chokepoint closure S05−0.59

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.50

Disaster in the core S10−0.41

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.34

Food and water shock S11−0.33

Mass displacement S08−0.25

Hybrid campaign S06−0.21

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.80	−0.88	−1.10	−0.49	▼ 2	22	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.78	−0.78	−1.15	−0.51	▼ 2	24	Economic Output & Productivity 3.9 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	High 0.70	−0.78	−1.05	−0.47	▲ 1	25	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.1 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.78	−0.76	−1.00	−0.44	▼ 1	21	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.72	−0.71	−1.04	−0.45	▼ 4	23	Energy Infrastructure 4.4 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.67	−0.67	−0.88	−0.39	▲ 1	24	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.57	−0.59	−0.77	−0.35	▼ 1	18	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.64	−0.59	−0.75	−0.33	▼ 2	16	Maritime Power 1.3 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.75	−0.50	−0.74	−0.33	▼ 1	14	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.9 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.56	−0.41	−0.61	−0.27	0	13	Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.46	−0.34	−0.44	−0.20	▲ 1	15	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.36	−0.33	−0.47	−0.21	0	12	Resource Infrastructure 5 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.43	−0.25	−0.38	−0.17	▲ 1	6	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.24	−0.21	−0.27	−0.12	▲ 2	7	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.81	−1.33	−0.47	−0.47	−0.47	−1.18	−1.10	−1.08	−0.95
Global financial crisis	−0.37	−0.40	−0.36	−0.79	−0.79	−0.99	−1.32	−1.13	−0.90
Pandemic	−0.69	−0.42	−0.35	−1.02	−0.90	−0.96	−0.90	−0.88	−0.88
Energy supply shock	−0.16	−1.07	−0.40	−0.45	−0.45	−1.00	−1.19	−1.15	−1.02
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.07	−0.59	−0.33	−0.82	−0.74	−1.01	−1.23	−0.74	−0.84
AI diffusion shock	−0.69	−0.38	−0.34	−1.02	−0.76	−1.05	−0.89	−0.49	−0.44
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.57	−0.32	−0.29	·	−0.75	−0.73	−0.75	−0.74	−1.11
Chokepoint closure	−0.07	−0.97	−0.80	·	−0.43	−0.93	−0.37	−0.74	−0.96
Legitimacy crisis	−0.35	·	−0.73	−0.37	−0.86	−1.20	−0.99	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.84	−0.25	−0.62	−0.28	−0.70	−0.37	−0.28	−0.28
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.56	−0.19	−0.24	−0.30	·	−0.60	·	−0.61	−0.61
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.37	−0.17	−0.46	−0.44	−0.47	−0.22	−0.37	−0.43
Mass displacement	·	−0.25	−0.19	−0.52	−0.42	−0.58	−0.25	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.16	−0.35	−0.38	·	−0.39	−0.36	·	−0.15	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Jamaica is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+14.1

Sovereign debt reset S19+13.1

100-day pandemic defence S24+8.8

Digital state leapfrog S23+2.1

Energy abundance S16+1.4

Middle East settlement S210.0

Great-power détente S18−0.9

Yield revolution S22−10.6

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−13.7

Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.4

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+14.1	19.6	5.6	34	47	Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+13.1	15.7	2.7	45	22	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8.5 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+8.8	14.8	5.9	24	92	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+2.1	15.7	13.5	25	63	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+1.4	16.8	15.3	20	128	Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	0.0	13.6	13.6	34	140	Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−0.9	16.9	17.8	31	115	Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−10.6	8.7	19.3	24	148	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−13.7	14.1	27.8	25	146	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−20.4	8.2	28.6	15	101	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception