Scenarios 2027 / Results / S19

Capture test · S19 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Coordinated sovereign debt reset

A Economic and trade↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers31net position above +10
Mixed164between the two
Losers2net position below -10
Largest net gain+23Ghana

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−100+10+20Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: −0.7Canada: +2.3North America mean: +0.8Europe 42France: +3.0United Kingdom: +5.6Germany: +1.4Netherlands: −0.2Sweden: +0.3Switzerland: −2.7Norway: −2.0Finland: +3.0Denmark: −1.9Spain: +2.6Italy: −1.0Belgium: +0.2Austria: 0.0Poland: −2.1Ireland: −4.0Portugal: +2.4Czechia: −3.9Estonia: +2.8Luxembourg: −3.9Lithuania: 0.0Greece: +2.6Hungary: −0.9Slovenia: +0.5Romania: −3.3Slovakia: +1.8Latvia: 0.0Iceland: −3.5Croatia: +0.3Serbia: −2.9Bulgaria: −6.3Malta: −3.1Cyprus: −2.3Liechtenstein: −8.1North Macedonia: −4.9Montenegro: −3.8Albania: −3.2Monaco: −9.7Bosnia & Herzegovina: −8.4Andorra: −9.3San Marino: −8.9Kosovo: −6.5Holy See: −16.6Europe mean: −2.3MonacoHoly SeeChina 1China: −12.1China mean: −12.1ChinaIndo-Pacific 30Japan: +2.1South Korea: +3.9Singapore: 0.0Australia: +5.4Taiwan: +5.9New Zealand: +6.3Malaysia: +6.5Thailand: +6.5Indonesia: +7.7Vietnam: +10.2Philippines: +6.6Mongolia: +7.5Brunei: −2.4Fiji: +5.4Cambodia: +3.0North Korea: −1.5Myanmar: +0.7Papua New Guinea: +3.7Laos: +3.5Samoa: +2.7Tonga: +0.9Timor-Leste: +0.2Vanuatu: +3.2Solomon Islands: +0.2Palau: +2.7Marshall Islands: +0.5Micronesia: −1.7Kiribati: −0.4Tuvalu: +0.8Nauru: +0.6Indo-Pacific mean: +3.0South Asia 8India: +7.7Pakistan: +16.8Sri Lanka: +14.4Bangladesh: +9.8Nepal: +7.2Maldives: +7.2Bhutan: +7.8Afghanistan: −2.2South Asia mean: +8.6Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +1.8Türkiye: +1.5United Arab Emirates: −7.5Saudi Arabia: −8.7Qatar: −3.2Egypt: +3.4Iran: −0.5Oman: +0.2Kuwait: −3.2Jordan: +7.8Bahrain: −1.4Iraq: −4.2Lebanon: −2.3Palestine: +3.0Syria: −4.9Yemen: −5.0Gulf and Middle East mean: −1.5Africa 53South Africa: +17.6Morocco: +15.3Mauritius: +7.3Tunisia: +13.1Nigeria: +7.8Kenya: +16.4Ghana: +22.7Algeria: +2.6Senegal: +19.6Botswana: +7.6Namibia: +11.2Rwanda: +16.4Tanzania: +15.5Ethiopia: +13.8Uganda: +19.5Côte d'Ivoire: +13.1Seychelles: +7.3Zambia: +17.6Cabo Verde: +13.2Angola: +7.9Cameroon: +5.9Zimbabwe: +13.7Mozambique: +15.6Benin: +14.1Togo: +17.2Gabon: +4.0Madagascar: +9.5Malawi: +16.9Eswatini: +6.1Sierra Leone: +14.3Mauritania: +9.3Burkina Faso: +14.4Lesotho: +6.4Mali: +7.7Gambia: +12.7Djibouti: +5.3Congo: +7.8Guinea: +7.4Niger: +9.2Libya: −2.0Liberia: +8.2DR Congo: +4.9São Tomé & Príncipe: +12.0Equatorial Guinea: −0.5Sudan: +4.8Burundi: +10.3Comoros: +1.7Chad: +5.7Guinea-Bissau: +5.4Eritrea: +0.3Central African Rep.: +1.8Somalia: +1.8South Sudan: +1.8Africa mean: +9.8GhanaSenegalUgandaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +10.0Mexico: +8.8Chile: +6.3Argentina: +6.4Colombia: +8.0Peru: +4.4Uruguay: +5.1Costa Rica: +6.3Panama: +4.0Dominican Republic: +4.5Ecuador: +9.9Trinidad & Tobago: +2.1Jamaica: +13.1Cuba: +0.5Paraguay: +2.7El Salvador: +11.4Guatemala: +2.2Barbados: +6.5Bahamas: +3.8Bolivia: +10.2Honduras: +6.1Venezuela: +0.4Guyana: −1.8Nicaragua: +1.8Antigua & Barbuda: +4.0Grenada: +5.9Suriname: +2.5Belize: +8.7Dominica: +5.3Saint Lucia: +4.2Saint Kitts & Nevis: +1.5Saint Vincent & Grenadines: +4.2Haiti: −0.9Latin America and Caribbean mean: +5.1Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −1.2Ukraine: +7.8Kazakhstan: +0.1Georgia: +7.0Belarus: +1.1Azerbaijan: +0.7Armenia: +7.8Moldova: +3.0Uzbekistan: −0.4Kyrgyzstan: +4.7Tajikistan: +2.5Turkmenistan: −2.5Russia and Eurasia mean: +2.5
Lowest: Holy See, China, Monaco. Highest: Uganda, Senegal, Ghana.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−100+10+20Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 79.6, net position −0.70France (Europe): readiness 79.6, net position +3.00United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 80.5, net position +5.60Germany (Europe): readiness 81.6, net position +1.40Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 76.5, net position +2.10South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 77.7, net position +3.90China (China): readiness 46.8, net position −12.10Netherlands (Europe): readiness 80.3, net position −0.20Sweden (Europe): readiness 83.4, net position +0.30Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 67.3, net position 0.00Canada (North America): readiness 79.6, net position +2.30Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 80.3, net position +5.40Switzerland (Europe): readiness 76.8, net position −2.70Norway (Europe): readiness 83.4, net position −2.00Finland (Europe): readiness 83.7, net position +3.00Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 69.5, net position +1.80Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 74.6, net position +5.90Denmark (Europe): readiness 82.6, net position −1.90Spain (Europe): readiness 70.3, net position +2.60Italy (Europe): readiness 65.5, net position −1.00Belgium (Europe): readiness 71.9, net position +0.20New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 79, net position +6.30Austria (Europe): readiness 74.1, net position 0.00India (South Asia): readiness 53.8, net position +7.70Poland (Europe): readiness 63, net position −2.10Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 36.7, net position −1.20Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47.9, net position +1.50Ireland (Europe): readiness 74.6, net position −4.00United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 46.7, net position −7.50Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 61.9, net position +10.00Portugal (Europe): readiness 67.5, net position +2.40Czechia (Europe): readiness 63.6, net position −3.90Estonia (Europe): readiness 73.4, net position +2.80Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 53.9, net position +6.50Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 42.3, net position −8.70Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 52.3, net position +8.80Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 72.4, net position −3.90South Africa (Africa): readiness 56.2, net position +17.60Lithuania (Europe): readiness 66.8, net position 0.00Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 54.6, net position +6.50Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 67, net position +6.30Greece (Europe): readiness 57.3, net position +2.60Hungary (Europe): readiness 53.1, net position −0.90Slovenia (Europe): readiness 64, net position +0.50Romania (Europe): readiness 56.5, net position −3.30Slovakia (Europe): readiness 59, net position +1.80Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 52.5, net position +7.70Latvia (Europe): readiness 63, net position 0.00Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 38.4, net position +10.20Iceland (Europe): readiness 69.3, net position −3.50Croatia (Europe): readiness 57.5, net position +0.30Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 48, net position +7.80Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.5, net position −3.20Morocco (Africa): readiness 43.6, net position +15.30Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 47.2, net position +6.40Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 53, net position +8.00Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 33.7, net position +3.40Serbia (Europe): readiness 51.1, net position −2.90Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 52.4, net position −6.30Malta (Europe): readiness 55.9, net position −3.10Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 47.9, net position +6.60Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 50.8, net position +4.40Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 61, net position +5.10Cyprus (Europe): readiness 55.9, net position −2.30Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 28.7, net position −0.50Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 42.2, net position +0.10Mauritius (Africa): readiness 57.3, net position +7.30Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 36.8, net position +0.20Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 36.4, net position +16.80Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 54.1, net position +6.30Tunisia (Africa): readiness 41.9, net position +13.10Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 52.8, net position +7.00Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 38, net position −3.20Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 42.3, net position +7.80Nigeria (Africa): readiness 38.8, net position +7.80Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 34.9, net position −1.40Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 42.8, net position +14.40Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 59.6, net position −8.10Kenya (Africa): readiness 42.4, net position +16.40Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 46.8, net position +4.00Ghana (Africa): readiness 43.8, net position +22.70Algeria (Africa): readiness 33.2, net position +2.60Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 26.8, net position +1.10Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 43.2, net position +4.50Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31, net position +0.70Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 40.6, net position +9.90Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 34, net position +9.80Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 44.5, net position +2.10Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 46.4, net position +7.80North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 45.6, net position −4.90Senegal (Africa): readiness 42, net position +19.60Montenegro (Europe): readiness 44.3, net position −3.80Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 42.2, net position +3.00Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 44.8, net position +13.10Albania (Europe): readiness 44.7, net position −3.20Botswana (Africa): readiness 48.4, net position +7.60Namibia (Africa): readiness 43.4, net position +11.20Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.3, net position +0.50Rwanda (Africa): readiness 40.1, net position +16.40Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 30.4, net position −0.40Monaco (Europe): readiness 47.8, net position −9.70Tanzania (Africa): readiness 36.7, net position +15.50Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 38.7, net position −8.40Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 37.3, net position +2.70Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 40.5, net position +7.50Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 30.2, net position +13.80El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.9, net position +11.40Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.4, net position +2.20Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 29.7, net position −2.40Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 43.7, net position +6.50Uganda (Africa): readiness 36.2, net position +19.50Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 33.8, net position +13.10Seychelles (Africa): readiness 43.5, net position +7.30Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 40.8, net position +3.80Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 37.2, net position +5.40Andorra (Europe): readiness 49.3, net position −9.30Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.3, net position +10.20Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.3, net position +6.10San Marino (Europe): readiness 46, net position −8.90Nepal (South Asia): readiness 34.1, net position +7.20Zambia (Africa): readiness 33.6, net position +17.60Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 26.1, net position +3.00Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 32.5, net position +4.70Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 37.5, net position +13.20Kosovo (Europe): readiness 36.1, net position −6.50Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 24.6, net position −4.20Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 20.7, net position −2.30Maldives (South Asia): readiness 34, net position +7.20Angola (Africa): readiness 28.5, net position +7.90Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.6, net position +0.40Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.3, net position −1.80Cameroon (Africa): readiness 24.7, net position +5.90Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.5, net position +1.80Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.7, net position +4.00Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 23.7, net position +13.70North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.1, net position −1.50Mozambique (Africa): readiness 27.3, net position +15.60Benin (Africa): readiness 30.9, net position +14.10Togo (Africa): readiness 27.1, net position +17.20Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.4, net position +5.90Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.9, net position +2.50Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.2, net position +8.70Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 21.9, net position +2.50Gabon (Africa): readiness 23, net position +4.00Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 33.9, net position +7.80Madagascar (Africa): readiness 26.2, net position +9.50Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.3, net position +0.70Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.8, net position +5.30Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.2, net position +4.20Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.4, net position +1.50Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 24, net position +3.70Malawi (Africa): readiness 27.6, net position +16.90Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.2, net position +4.20Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 24.6, net position +3.00Eswatini (Africa): readiness 24.1, net position +6.10Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.4, net position +3.50Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 28.5, net position +14.30Mauritania (Africa): readiness 23.8, net position +9.30Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 13.1, net position −2.50Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 27.7, net position +2.70Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 25.8, net position +14.40Lesotho (Africa): readiness 26.1, net position +6.40Mali (Africa): readiness 22.8, net position +7.70Gambia (Africa): readiness 25.5, net position +12.70Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 24.2, net position +0.90Djibouti (Africa): readiness 18.3, net position +5.30Congo (Africa): readiness 17.8, net position +7.80Guinea (Africa): readiness 21.1, net position +7.40Niger (Africa): readiness 21.4, net position +9.20Libya (Africa): readiness 13.2, net position −2.00Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22.6, net position +0.20Liberia (Africa): readiness 22.5, net position +8.20Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22, net position +3.20Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 23.7, net position +0.20DR Congo (Africa): readiness 15.1, net position +4.90São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 25.1, net position +12.00Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21.1, net position +2.70Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 11.7, net position −0.50Sudan (Africa): readiness 10.5, net position +4.80Burundi (Africa): readiness 18.6, net position +10.30Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.7, net position +0.50Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.9, net position −1.70Comoros (Africa): readiness 17.2, net position +1.70Chad (Africa): readiness 15.7, net position +5.70Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 7.5, net position −4.90Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.8, net position −0.40Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.8, net position +0.80Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 14.4, net position +5.40Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.4, net position −0.90Eritrea (Africa): readiness 6.3, net position +0.30Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.2, net position +0.60Holy See (Europe): readiness 12.1, net position −16.60Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 11.4, net position +1.80Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 6.9, net position −5.00Somalia (Africa): readiness 7.4, net position +1.80Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 9, net position −2.20South Sudan (Africa): readiness 7, net position +1.80ChinaGhanaSenegalMonacoUgandaHoly See
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: losses taken as a creditor.

China 1−12.1
Europe 42−2.3
Gulf and Middle East 16−1.4
North America 2+0.8
Russia and Eurasia 12+2.5
Indo-Pacific 30+3.0
Latin America and Caribbean 33+5.1
South Asia 8+8.6
Africa 53+9.8

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1GhanaAfricaGainer+22.725.52.94443Health System Capability 8.3 · Foundational
2SenegalAfricaGainer+19.622.42.84244Health System Capability 8 · Foundational
3UgandaAfricaGainer+19.522.63.13638Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7 · Foundational
5ZambiaAfricaGainer+17.621.03.33433Health System Capability 6.3 · Foundational
4South AfricaAfricaGainer+17.619.51.95663Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10.5 · Transitional
6TogoAfricaGainer+17.220.63.52731Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 · Nascent
7MalawiAfricaGainer+16.920.63.82825Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 · Nascent
8PakistanSouth AsiaGainer+16.819.83.13639Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7 · Foundational
10RwandaAfricaGainer+16.419.12.74045Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7 · Foundational
9KenyaAfricaGainer+16.419.22.84244Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational
11MozambiqueAfricaGainer+15.619.23.72727Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.3 · Nascent
12TanzaniaAfricaGainer+15.518.63.03739Health System Capability 7 · Foundational
13MoroccoAfricaGainer+15.317.42.24457Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational
15Burkina FasoAfricaGainer+14.418.03.62628Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 · Nascent
14Sri LankaSouth AsiaGainer+14.417.22.94342Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 · Foundational
16Sierra LeoneAfricaGainer+14.318.03.72927Financial Regulation & Integrity 5.3 · Nascent
17BeninAfricaGainer+14.117.43.33134Health System Capability 5.7 · Nascent
18EthiopiaAfricaGainer+13.817.23.53030Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
19ZimbabweAfricaGainer+13.717.53.82424Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.3 · Nascent
20Cabo VerdeAfricaGainer+13.216.23.03840Financial Regulation & Integrity 6.3 · Foundational
23Côte d'IvoireAfricaGainer+13.116.23.03439Health System Capability 6.3 · Foundational
22JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+13.115.72.74547Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8.5 · Foundational
21TunisiaAfricaGainer+13.115.92.84245Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational
24GambiaAfricaGainer+12.716.53.82625Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.8 · Nascent
25São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaGainer+12.015.73.72525Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.5 · Nascent
26El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+11.414.43.13339Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
27NamibiaAfricaGainer+11.213.82.74347Health System Capability 8 · Foundational
28BurundiAfricaGainer+10.314.34.01919Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3.5 · Nascent
30BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+10.213.53.33335Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
29VietnamIndo-PacificGainer+10.212.52.33854Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
31BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+10.011.71.76266Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12 · Established
32EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+9.912.82.94142Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational
33BangladeshSouth AsiaMixed+9.812.83.03440Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
34MadagascarAfricaMixed+9.513.23.82625Financial Regulation & Integrity 5 · Nascent
35MauritaniaAfricaMixed+9.313.13.82425Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.5 · Nascent
36NigerAfricaMixed+9.213.13.82124Health System Capability 4 · Nascent
37MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.810.61.85264Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional
38BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.712.13.33133Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
39LiberiaAfricaMixed+8.212.23.92321Financial Regulation & Integrity 4 · Nascent
40ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.010.12.15358Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
41AngolaAfricaMixed+7.911.33.42932Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
47CongoAfricaMixed+7.811.63.91823Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 · Nascent
46BhutanSouth AsiaMixed+7.811.03.23436Financial Regulation & Integrity 5.8 · Nascent
45ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaMixed+7.810.52.74647Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9 · Transitional
44NigeriaAfricaMixed+7.810.72.93942Health System Capability 7.3 · Foundational
43JordanGulf and Middle EastMixed+7.813.15.34247Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7.7 · Foundational
42UkraineRussia and EurasiaMixed+7.810.32.54850Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.8 · Foundational
50MaliAfricaMixed+7.711.53.82324Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent
49IndonesiaIndo-PacificMixed+7.79.72.05360Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
48IndiaSouth AsiaMixed+7.714.97.25464Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
51BotswanaAfricaMixed+7.610.12.44851Financial Regulation & Integrity 9.3 · Transitional
52MongoliaIndo-PacificMixed+7.510.42.94142Financial Regulation & Integrity 7.5 · Foundational
53GuineaAfricaMixed+7.411.33.92121Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 · Nascent
55SeychellesAfricaMixed+7.310.02.74445Financial Regulation & Integrity 7.8 · Foundational
54MauritiusAfricaMixed+7.39.31.95761Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 11 · Transitional
57MaldivesSouth AsiaMixed+7.210.43.23435Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
56NepalSouth AsiaMixed+7.210.53.33434Financial Regulation & Integrity 6.3 · Foundational
58GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaMixed+7.09.32.35354Health System Capability 10 · Transitional
59PhilippinesIndo-PacificMixed+6.68.82.24855Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9 · Transitional
62BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.59.22.74446Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational
61ThailandIndo-PacificMixed+6.58.31.85564Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
60MalaysiaIndo-PacificMixed+6.58.01.55469Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 9.3 · Transitional
64LesothoAfricaMixed+6.410.13.72627Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 · Nascent
63ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.49.12.74746Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 · Foundational
67Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.38.62.35454Financial Regulation & Integrity 9.8 · Transitional
66ChileLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.37.71.56771Financial Regulation & Integrity 13 · Established
65New ZealandIndo-PacificMixed+6.37.21.07980Financial Regulation & Integrity 15.3 · Advanced
69EswatiniAfricaMixed+6.19.63.62429Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 · Nascent
68HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.19.43.33034Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
72GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+5.99.33.43333Financial Regulation & Integrity 6.3 · Foundational
71CameroonAfricaMixed+5.99.43.52530Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4.5 · Nascent
70TaiwanIndo-PacificMixed+5.97.01.17578Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 14.5 · Established
73ChadAfricaMixed+5.79.84.11618Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 · Nascent
74United KingdomEuropeMixed+5.68.32.78187Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced
77Guinea-BissauAfricaMixed+5.49.54.21416Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 · Inception
76FijiIndo-PacificMixed+5.48.63.23736Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 · Foundational
75AustraliaIndo-PacificMixed+5.46.20.88085Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced
79DjiboutiAfricaMixed+5.39.23.81824Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 · Nascent
78DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+5.38.63.33333Financial Regulation & Integrity 6 · Foundational
80UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+5.17.01.86163Financial Regulation & Integrity 11.5 · Transitional
81DR CongoAfricaMixed+4.99.04.11518Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 · Inception
82SudanAfricaMixed+4.89.14.41113Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1.5 · Inception
83KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaMixed+4.78.03.33335Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
84Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.57.12.64347Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational
85PeruLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.46.42.05159Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional
87Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.27.63.43132Financial Regulation & Integrity 5.8 · Nascent
86Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.27.53.43233Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
90GabonAfricaMixed+4.07.63.62328Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 · Nascent
89Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.07.33.23436Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
88PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.06.52.54751Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8.5 · Foundational
91South KoreaIndo-PacificMixed+3.94.70.87884Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15 · Advanced
92BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.86.72.94142Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational
93Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMixed+3.77.43.72426Health System Capability 4.3 · Nascent
94LaosIndo-PacificMixed+3.57.33.81824Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.7 · Inception
95EgyptGulf and Middle EastMixed+3.48.65.23448Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent
96VanuatuIndo-PacificMixed+3.27.03.82223Financial Regulation & Integrity 3.8 · Nascent
101PalestineGulf and Middle EastMixed+3.010.57.42526Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent
100CambodiaIndo-PacificMixed+3.06.33.32635Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent
99MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMixed+3.05.82.84244Financial Regulation & Integrity 7.8 · Foundational
98FinlandEuropeMixed+3.06.43.48483Financial Regulation & Integrity 16.3 · Advanced
97FranceEuropeMixed+3.06.43.38083Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced
102EstoniaEuropeMixed+2.87.64.77376Health System Capability 14 · Established
105PalauIndo-PacificMixed+2.76.73.92121Financial Regulation & Integrity 3.3 · Nascent
104SamoaIndo-PacificMixed+2.76.33.62829Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.8 · Nascent
103ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.75.42.83745Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6.5 · Foundational
108AlgeriaAfricaMixed+2.65.52.93341Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
107GreeceEuropeMixed+2.610.07.45763Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 11 · Transitional
106SpainEuropeMixed+2.67.54.97075Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 13.5 · Established
110TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMixed+2.56.13.52229Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 · Nascent
109SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.56.03.53030Financial Regulation & Integrity 5.3 · Nascent
111PortugalEuropeMixed+2.48.35.96871Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 13 · Established
112CanadaNorth AmericaMixed+2.35.63.38083Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced
113GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.25.33.13338Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
115Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.14.62.64549Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational
114JapanIndo-PacificMixed+2.16.64.57785Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 14.5 · Established
121South SudanAfricaMixed+1.86.44.679Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception
120SomaliaAfricaMixed+1.86.34.5710Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception
119Central African Rep.AfricaMixed+1.86.24.31113Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2 · Inception
118NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.85.23.42431Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.7 · Nascent
117SlovakiaEuropeMixed+1.88.56.75966Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 11 · Transitional
116IsraelGulf and Middle EastMixed+1.84.42.67074Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 13.3 · Established
122ComorosAfricaMixed+1.75.74.01719Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 · Nascent
124Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.54.93.43033Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
123TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastMixed+1.55.43.94861Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational
125GermanyEuropeMixed+1.44.53.18285Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 16 · Advanced
126BelarusRussia and EurasiaMixed+1.14.23.02740Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 · Nascent
127TongaIndo-PacificMixed+0.94.63.72427Financial Regulation & Integrity 4 · Nascent
128TuvaluIndo-PacificMixed+0.84.94.11618Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.3 · Inception
130MyanmarIndo-PacificMixed+0.74.74.01519Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.3 · Inception
129AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaMixed+0.73.42.73146Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.7 · Nascent
131NauruIndo-PacificMixed+0.64.84.21516Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.3 · Inception
134Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificMixed+0.54.64.11818Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.8 · Inception
133CubaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+0.54.13.62429Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 · Nascent
132SloveniaEuropeMixed+0.56.86.36468Financial Regulation & Integrity 12.3 · Established
135VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+0.44.54.11618Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 · Inception
138EritreaAfricaMixed+0.34.84.5611Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception
137CroatiaEuropeMixed+0.37.87.45863Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 11 · Transitional
136SwedenEuropeMixed+0.33.22.98385Financial Regulation & Integrity 16.3 · Advanced
142Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificMixed+0.24.03.82424Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.3 · Nascent
141Timor-LesteIndo-PacificMixed+0.24.03.82324Financial Regulation & Integrity 3.8 · Nascent
140OmanGulf and Middle EastMixed+0.24.74.63754Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent
139BelgiumEuropeMixed+0.24.74.57278Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 13.5 · Established
143KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaMixed+0.12.52.44253Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7.3 · Foundational
147LatviaEuropeMixed0.06.76.66367Health System Capability 12 · Established
146LithuaniaEuropeMixed0.06.06.06770Health System Capability 13 · Established
145AustriaEuropeMixed0.04.34.27479Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 14.3 · Established
144SingaporeIndo-PacificMixed0.00.50.56791Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 10.3 · Transitional
148NetherlandsEuropeMixed−0.22.83.08085Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced
150KiribatiIndo-PacificMixed−0.43.74.11719Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.5 · Inception
149UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaMixed−0.42.63.03041Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent
152Equatorial GuineaAfricaMixed−0.53.43.91222Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 · Inception
151IranGulf and Middle EastMixed−0.56.06.52935Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent
153United StatesNorth AmericaMixed−0.72.33.08085Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced
155HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−0.93.54.41112Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2 · Inception
154HungaryEuropeMixed−0.96.47.35364Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional
156ItalyEuropeMixed−1.05.26.26669Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12.5 · Established
157RussiaRussia and EurasiaMixed−1.20.92.13758Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent
158BahrainGulf and Middle EastMixed−1.43.44.83553Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.7 · Nascent
159North KoreaIndo-PacificMixed−1.52.84.3713Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception
160MicronesiaIndo-PacificMixed−1.72.54.11718Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.5 · Inception
161GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−1.81.53.33334Financial Regulation & Integrity 6.3 · Foundational
162DenmarkEuropeMixed−1.91.33.28384Financial Regulation & Integrity 16 · Advanced
164LibyaAfricaMixed−2.02.24.21316Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2 · Inception
163NorwayEuropeMixed−2.00.72.78386Financial Regulation & Integrity 16.3 · Advanced
165PolandEuropeMixed−2.14.16.26369Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12 · Established
166AfghanistanSouth AsiaMixed−2.22.24.4911Financial Regulation & Integrity 1.3 · Inception
168LebanonGulf and Middle EastMixed−2.35.88.12119Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 · Nascent
167CyprusEuropeMixed−2.35.57.75661Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10.5 · Transitional
169BruneiIndo-PacificMixed−2.40.32.73046Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.7 · Nascent
170TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaMixed−2.51.33.81323Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 · Inception
171SwitzerlandEuropeMixed−2.70.22.97786Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 14.5 · Established
172SerbiaEuropeMixed−2.96.08.95156Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional
173MaltaEuropeMixed−3.13.66.85666Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
176AlbaniaEuropeMixed−3.27.410.64547Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8.5 · Foundational
175KuwaitGulf and Middle EastMixed−3.21.64.83852Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
174QatarGulf and Middle EastMixed−3.20.43.64064Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.3 · Nascent
177RomaniaEuropeMixed−3.34.88.15760Health System Capability 11 · Transitional
178IcelandEuropeMixed−3.52.66.16969Financial Regulation & Integrity 13 · Established
179MontenegroEuropeMixed−3.87.110.94446Financial Regulation & Integrity 8.3 · Foundational
181LuxembourgEuropeMixed−3.90.64.57278Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 14 · Established
180CzechiaEuropeMixed−3.92.16.06470Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12 · Established
182IrelandEuropeMixed−4.00.94.97576Health System Capability 14.7 · Established
183IraqGulf and Middle EastMixed−4.23.07.22528Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.3 · Nascent
185SyriaGulf and Middle EastMixed−4.94.19.0810Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception
184North MacedoniaEuropeMixed−4.95.510.44648Financial Regulation & Integrity 8.5 · Foundational
186YemenGulf and Middle EastMixed−5.04.29.278Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception
187BulgariaEuropeMixed−6.32.18.45258Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
188KosovoEuropeMixed−6.56.613.13635Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 · Foundational
189United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastMixed−7.51.18.74771Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.7 · Foundational
190LiechtensteinEuropeMixed−8.10.08.26059Health System Capability 11.3 · Transitional
191Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeMixed−8.43.712.13940Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.3 · Foundational
192Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastMixed−8.70.89.54268Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
193San MarinoEuropeMixed−8.91.610.54647Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 · Foundational
194AndorraEuropeMixed−9.30.910.24949Financial Regulation & Integrity 9 · Transitional
195MonacoEuropeMixed−9.70.09.74851Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8.7 · Foundational
196ChinaChinaLoser−12.13.415.44774Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.3 · Foundational
197Holy SeeEuropeLoser−16.60.617.21214Health System Capability 1.3 · Inception

Settings of this run

Required
Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationPublic Integrity & Anti-CorruptionTransparency, Oversight & AccountabilityFinancial Regulation & IntegrityHealth System Capability

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationFinancial Stability & Crisis Management
Gain exposure
few months of imports covered by reserves (ranked) (40%); regional exposure (30%); public debt relative to gdp (ranked) (30%).
Loss exposure
Losses taken as a creditor: regional exposure (100%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
1 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
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