India · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years6.4rank 173 of 197 · 3 years: 6.1

Worst case−4.3%AI diffusion shock · tail −4.1%

Opportunity · 10 years+21.6rank 20 of 197 · 3 years: +22.1

Best case+37Energy abundance · gainer in 7 of 10

Shock absorbed47%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.28expected index points from best practice

Breadth4 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkLabour & Employmentweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, AI diffusion shock, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; low life expectancy at birth.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in India’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

AI diffusion shock S13−0.54

Energy supply shock S09−0.50

Disaster in the core S10−0.49

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.48

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.45

Pandemic S14−0.44

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.40

Chokepoint closure S05−0.40

Food and water shock S11−0.38

Global financial crisis S03−0.31

Mass displacement S08−0.28

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.26

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.24

Hybrid campaign S06−0.21

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.67	−0.54	−0.92	−0.40	0	16	Labour & Employment 7.7 · Foundational
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.77	−0.50	−1.00	−0.44	▼ 1	13	Economic Leverage & Dependence 11.2 · Transitional
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.80	−0.49	−0.87	−0.38	▼ 1	14	Health System Capability 9 · Foundational
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.65	−0.48	−0.94	−0.41	0	16	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.76	−0.45	−0.79	−0.34	0	13	Internal Security & Order 8.7 · Foundational
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.53	−0.44	−0.82	−0.36	0	15	Labour & Employment 7.4 · Foundational
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.52	−0.40	−0.76	−0.33	0	12	Internal Security & Order 9.2 · Transitional
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.70	−0.40	−0.84	−0.37	▼ 1	10	National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.4 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.53	−0.38	−0.71	−0.31	0	12	Population Health 7.5 · Foundational
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.41	−0.31	−0.61	−0.27	▲ 1	11	Labour & Employment 7.6 · Foundational
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.56	−0.28	−0.50	−0.22	0	9	Labour & Employment 8 · Foundational
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.36	−0.26	−0.51	−0.22	0	7	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.4 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.46	−0.24	−0.47	−0.20	0	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.3 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.37	−0.21	−0.42	−0.18	0	5	Internal Security & Order 9.4 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
AI diffusion shock	−0.71	−0.29	−0.29	−0.78	−0.59	−0.81	−0.69	−0.38	−0.34
Energy supply shock	−0.12	−0.69	−0.29	−0.29	−0.29	−0.65	−0.77	−0.74	−0.66
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−1.00	−0.33	−0.74	−0.33	−0.84	−0.45	−0.33	−0.33
Infrastructure collapse	−0.59	−0.69	−0.27	−0.25	−0.25	−0.62	−0.58	−0.56	−0.49
Legitimacy crisis	−0.32	·	−0.71	−0.32	−0.76	−1.06	−0.87	·	·
Pandemic	−0.47	−0.23	−0.21	−0.56	−0.49	−0.53	−0.49	−0.48	−0.48
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.33	−0.21	−0.47	−0.42	−0.58	−0.70	−0.42	−0.48
Chokepoint closure	−0.05	−0.65	−0.60	·	−0.29	−0.63	−0.25	−0.50	−0.64
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.43	−0.22	−0.53	−0.50	−0.54	−0.25	−0.43	−0.49
Global financial crisis	−0.16	−0.16	−0.16	−0.31	−0.31	−0.39	−0.52	−0.44	−0.36
Mass displacement	·	−0.28	−0.23	−0.57	−0.47	−0.65	−0.27	−0.03	·
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.33	−0.14	−0.14	·	−0.32	−0.31	−0.32	−0.32	−0.48
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.46	−0.12	−0.18	−0.20	·	−0.40	·	−0.41	−0.41
Hybrid campaign	−0.16	−0.34	−0.40	·	−0.38	−0.36	·	−0.14	−0.14

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what India is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+37.3

Emerging-market breakout S20+35.8

Middle East settlement S21+30.1

Yield revolution S22+26.3

Digital state leapfrog S23+25.6

100-day pandemic defence S24+19.4

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+18.6

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.7

Great-power détente S18+2.2

Superintelligence takeoff S15−0.4

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+37.3	46.3	8.9	59	25	Technology Adoption & Diffusion 10.5 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+35.8	40.0	4.1	54	1	Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+30.1	35.9	5.8	58	24	Internal Security & Order 10 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+26.3	28.2	1.9	57	2	Technology Adoption & Diffusion 10.5 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Gainer	+25.6	39.6	13.9	58	1	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 10.7 · Transitional
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+19.4	23.3	4.0	50	61	Population Health 8.3 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+18.6	33.9	15.3	49	17	Population Health 8.3 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.7	14.9	7.2	54	48	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+2.2	20.0	17.8	62	95	Global Value Chain Position 11.7 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	−0.4	27.0	27.5	52	46	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 · Transitional