Scenarios 2027 / Results / S04

Load test · S04 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Sovereign funding crisis

A Economic and tradeScenario record

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation−0.55median change in index, points
Hardest hit−1.21Sudan
Lose a domain band142of 197 nations
Worth of best practice+0.22mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1.2−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.30Canada: −0.30North America mean: −0.30Europe 42France: −0.32United Kingdom: −0.35Germany: −0.28Netherlands: −0.31Sweden: −0.23Switzerland: −0.06Norway: −0.15Finland: −0.32Denmark: −0.17Spain: −0.43Italy: −0.39Belgium: −0.42Austria: −0.39Poland: −0.27Ireland: −0.33Portugal: −0.43Czechia: −0.18Estonia: −0.31Luxembourg: −0.26Lithuania: −0.34Greece: −0.56Hungary: −0.46Slovenia: −0.49Romania: −0.34Slovakia: −0.49Latvia: −0.34Iceland: −0.35Croatia: −0.52Serbia: −0.38Bulgaria: −0.19Malta: −0.44Cyprus: −0.55Liechtenstein: −0.17North Macedonia: −0.38Montenegro: −0.54Albania: −0.47Monaco: −0.19Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.34Andorra: −0.28San Marino: −0.56Kosovo: −0.47Holy See: −0.30Europe mean: −0.35SwitzerlandNorwayChina 1China: −0.19China mean: −0.19Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.27South Korea: −0.25Singapore: −0.26Australia: −0.34Taiwan: −0.25New Zealand: −0.32Malaysia: −0.41Thailand: −0.36Indonesia: −0.36Vietnam: −0.58Philippines: −0.36Mongolia: −0.62Brunei: −0.28Fiji: −0.53Cambodia: −0.51North Korea: −0.92Myanmar: −0.62Papua New Guinea: −0.59Laos: −0.79Samoa: −0.51Tonga: −0.47Timor-Leste: −0.41Vanuatu: −0.62Solomon Islands: −0.40Palau: −0.82Marshall Islands: −0.64Micronesia: −0.41Kiribati: −0.55Tuvalu: −0.69Nauru: −0.79Indo-Pacific mean: −0.50South Asia 8India: −0.40Pakistan: −0.84Sri Lanka: −0.78Bangladesh: −0.66Nepal: −0.56Maldives: −0.86Bhutan: −0.72Afghanistan: −0.53South Asia mean: −0.67Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.26Türkiye: −0.36United Arab Emirates: −0.22Saudi Arabia: −0.15Qatar: −0.27Egypt: −0.59Iran: −0.53Oman: −0.45Kuwait: −0.21Jordan: −0.55Bahrain: −0.67Iraq: −0.35Lebanon: −0.69Palestine: −0.68Syria: −0.94Yemen: −0.87Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.49Saudi ArabiaAfrica 53South Africa: −0.51Morocco: −0.60Mauritius: −0.41Tunisia: −0.70Nigeria: −0.45Kenya: −0.66Ghana: −0.85Algeria: −0.40Senegal: −0.73Botswana: −0.42Namibia: −0.51Rwanda: −0.61Tanzania: −0.68Ethiopia: −0.77Uganda: −0.80Côte d'Ivoire: −0.74Seychelles: −0.67Zambia: −0.87Cabo Verde: −0.75Angola: −0.73Cameroon: −0.63Zimbabwe: −1.09Mozambique: −0.94Benin: −0.82Togo: −1.03Gabon: −0.86Madagascar: −0.72Malawi: −0.96Eswatini: −0.74Sierra Leone: −0.88Mauritania: −0.94Burkina Faso: −0.96Lesotho: −0.58Mali: −0.77Gambia: −0.94Djibouti: −0.85Congo: −1.10Guinea: −0.85Niger: −0.88Libya: −0.45Liberia: −0.76DR Congo: −0.85São Tomé & Príncipe: −1.00Equatorial Guinea: −0.70Sudan: −1.21Burundi: −1.01Comoros: −0.60Chad: −0.92Guinea-Bissau: −1.00Eritrea: −1.01Central African Rep.: −0.83Somalia: −1.08South Sudan: −1.03Africa mean: −0.79ZimbabweCongoSudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.46Mexico: −0.48Chile: −0.34Argentina: −0.66Colombia: −0.50Peru: −0.36Uruguay: −0.43Costa Rica: −0.51Panama: −0.58Dominican Republic: −0.53Ecuador: −0.75Trinidad & Tobago: −0.45Jamaica: −0.71Cuba: −0.74Paraguay: −0.45El Salvador: −0.96Guatemala: −0.47Barbados: −0.66Bahamas: −0.69Bolivia: −0.84Honduras: −0.67Venezuela: −0.72Guyana: −0.76Nicaragua: −0.59Antigua & Barbuda: −0.82Grenada: −0.79Suriname: −0.71Belize: −0.90Dominica: −0.77Saint Lucia: −0.80Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.70Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.75Haiti: −0.71Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.64Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.19Ukraine: −0.52Kazakhstan: −0.28Georgia: −0.48Belarus: −0.57Azerbaijan: −0.37Armenia: −0.59Moldova: −0.40Uzbekistan: −0.31Kyrgyzstan: −0.54Tajikistan: −0.58Turkmenistan: −0.47Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.44
Lowest: Sudan, Congo, Zimbabwe. Highest: Norway, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.5−0.30Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.30France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.32United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.35Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.28Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.27South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.25China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.19Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.31Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.23Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.26Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.30Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.34Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.06Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.15Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.32Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.26Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.25Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.17Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.43Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.39Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.42New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.32Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.39India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.40Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.27Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.19Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.36Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.33United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.22Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.46Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.43Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.18Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.31Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.41Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.15Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.48Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.26South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.51Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.34Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.36Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.34Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.56Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.46Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.49Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.34Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.49Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.36Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.34Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.58Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.35Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.52Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.52Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.27Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.60Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.66Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.50Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.59Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.38Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.19Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.44Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.36Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.36Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.43Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.55Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.53Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.28Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.41Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.45Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.84Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.51Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.70Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.48Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.21Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.55Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.45Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.67Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.78Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.17Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.66Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.58Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.85Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.40Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.57Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.53Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.37Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.75Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.66Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.45Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.59North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.38Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.73Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.54Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.40Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.71Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.47Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.42Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.51Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.74Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.61Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.31Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.19Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.68Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.34Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.45Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.62Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.77El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.96Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.47Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.28Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.66Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.80Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.74Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.67Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.69Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.53Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.28Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.84Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.67San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.56Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.56Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.87Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.51Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.54Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.75Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.47Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.35Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.69Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.86Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.73Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.72Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.76Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.63Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.59Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.82Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −1.09North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −0.92Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.94Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.82Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −1.03Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.79Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.71Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.90Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.58Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.86Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.72Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.72Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.62Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.77Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.80Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.70Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.59Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.96Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.75Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.68Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.74Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.79Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.88Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.94Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.47Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.51Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.96Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.58Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.77Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.94Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.47Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.85Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −1.10Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.85Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.88Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.45Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.41Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.76Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.62Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.40DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.85São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −1.00Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.82Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.70Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −1.21Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −1.01Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.64Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.41Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.60Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.92Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.94Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.55Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.69Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −1.00Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.71Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −1.01Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.79Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.30Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.83Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.87Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −1.08Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.53South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −1.03SwitzerlandNorwaySaudi ArabiaZimbabweCongoSudan
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Financial Strength−0.98
Governance & Integrity−0.82
Trade & Investment−0.68
Human Capital−0.67
Information & Influence−0.60
Production & Innovation−0.60
Strategic Infrastructure−0.48
National Security−0.25
Critical Technology−0.05

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

−1.2−1.0−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20.0Change in capability index, pointsSudanSudan, no response: −1.28Sudan, current plans: −1.21Sudan, best practice: −0.60CongoCongo, no response: −1.28Congo, current plans: −1.10Congo, best practice: −0.57ZimbabweZimbabwe, no response: −1.25Zimbabwe, current plans: −1.09Zimbabwe, best practice: −0.56SomaliaSomalia, no response: −1.11Somalia, current plans: −1.08Somalia, best practice: −0.58TogoTogo, no response: −1.28Togo, current plans: −1.03Togo, best practice: −0.56South SudanSouth Sudan, no response: −1.05South Sudan, current plans: −1.03South Sudan, best practice: −0.58BurundiBurundi, no response: −1.14Burundi, current plans: −1.01Burundi, best practice: −0.51EritreaEritrea, no response: −1.06Eritrea, current plans: −1.01Eritrea, best practice: −0.52São Tomé & PríncipeSão Tomé & Príncipe, no response: −1.18São Tomé & Príncipe, current plans: −1.00São Tomé & Príncipe, best practice: −0.52Guinea-BissauGuinea-Bissau, no response: −1.11Guinea-Bissau, current plans: −1.00Guinea-Bissau, best practice: −0.50El SalvadorEl Salvador, no response: −1.22El Salvador, current plans: −0.96El Salvador, best practice: −0.53MalawiMalawi, no response: −1.17Malawi, current plans: −0.96Malawi, best practice: −0.51Burkina FasoBurkina Faso, no response: −1.17Burkina Faso, current plans: −0.96Burkina Faso, best practice: −0.51MozambiqueMozambique, no response: −1.16Mozambique, current plans: −0.94Mozambique, best practice: −0.51MauritaniaMauritania, no response: −1.14Mauritania, current plans: −0.94Mauritania, best practice: −0.50GambiaGambia, no response: −1.13Gambia, current plans: −0.94Gambia, best practice: −0.50SyriaSyria, no response: −0.98Syria, current plans: −0.94Syria, best practice: −0.47North KoreaNorth Korea, no response: −0.95North Korea, current plans: −0.92North Korea, best practice: −0.46ChadChad, no response: −1.03Chad, current plans: −0.92Chad, best practice: −0.46BelizeBelize, no response: −1.13Belize, current plans: −0.90Belize, best practice: −0.50
No responseCurrent plansBest practice
Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Weakest point
SudanAfricaHigh 0.962.611.40−1.21−46.2▼ 720 · 3d7%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
CongoAfricaHigh 0.903.192.09−1.10−34.5▼ 834 · 6d15%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.7 · Inception
ZimbabweAfricaHigh 0.884.343.24−1.09−25.2▼ 621 · 3d13%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0 · Inception
SomaliaAfricaHigh 0.931.620.54−1.08−66.5▼ 146%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
TogoAfricaHigh 0.894.053.02−1.03−25.4▼ 142520%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1 · Inception
South SudanAfricaHigh 0.951.380.34−1.03−75.1045%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
BurundiAfricaHigh 0.822.481.47−1.01−40.8▼ 424 · 3d12%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0 · Inception
EritreaAfricaHigh 0.852.011.00−1.01−50.4▼ 211 · 1d6%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaHigh 0.852.851.86−1.00−34.9▼ 325 · 2d16%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.3 · Inception
Guinea-BissauAfricaHigh 0.802.071.07−1.00−48.2▼ 320 · 1d11%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.845.684.71−0.96−16.9▼ 531 · 6d21%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 · Inception
MalawiAfricaHigh 0.823.762.80−0.96−25.5▼ 725 · 4d18%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.8 · Inception
Burkina FasoAfricaHigh 0.823.472.52−0.96−27.6▼ 526 · 4d18%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 · Inception
MozambiqueAfricaHigh 0.804.123.18−0.94−22.9▼ 81518%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 · Inception
MauritaniaAfricaHigh 0.793.582.65−0.94−26.1▼ 418 · 5d18%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.3 · Inception
GambiaAfricaHigh 0.803.322.37−0.94−28.4▼ 418 · 5d17%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 · Inception
SyriaGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.752.221.28−0.94−42.4▼ 415 · 2d4%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 0.754.263.35−0.92−21.50205%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
ChadAfricaHigh 0.742.261.34−0.92−40.7▼ 318 · 2d12%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.804.033.13−0.90−22.3▼ 417 · 1d21%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.9 · Inception
Sierra LeoneAfricaHigh 0.763.592.72−0.88−24.5▼ 419 · 4d20%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 · Inception
NigerAfricaHigh 0.733.072.19−0.88−28.6▼ 324 · 4d16%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.8 · Inception
ZambiaAfricaHigh 0.794.934.06−0.87−17.6▼ 42323%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 · Inception
YemenGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.701.620.76−0.87−53.4▼ 164%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
MaldivesSouth AsiaHigh 0.774.623.76−0.86−18.6▼ 523 · 1d21%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 · Inception
GabonAfricaHigh 0.733.943.08−0.86−21.7▼ 51918%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 · Inception
GhanaAfricaHigh 0.846.986.13−0.85−12.2▼ 616 · 1d30%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 · Nascent
DjiboutiAfricaHigh 0.703.202.36−0.85−26.4▼ 325 · 4d16%Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
GuineaAfricaHigh 0.703.152.30−0.85−27.1▼ 320 · 6d14%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.8 · Inception
DR CongoAfricaHigh 0.662.872.02−0.85−29.5▼ 125 · 5d11%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.4 · Inception
PakistanSouth AsiaHigh 0.787.967.12−0.84−10.6▼ 225 · 4d25%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent
BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.745.114.26−0.84−16.5▼ 519 · 1d21%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 · Inception
Central African Rep.AfricaHigh 0.651.660.83−0.83−49.9▼ 179%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.754.363.54−0.82−18.8016 · 2d23%Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
BeninAfricaHigh 0.744.093.26−0.82−20.1019 · 1d22%Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception
PalauIndo-PacificHigh 0.682.842.02−0.82−28.9018 · 2d14%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.6 · Inception
UgandaAfricaHigh 0.755.534.74−0.80−14.4024 · 4d26%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent
Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.723.853.05−0.80−20.9▼ 221 · 2d21%Energy Infrastructure 1.4 · Inception
GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.714.043.25−0.79−19.5018 · 2d22%Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception
LaosIndo-PacificHigh 0.653.702.91−0.79−21.4▼ 118 · 2d15%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.1 · Inception
NauruIndo-PacificHigh 0.631.961.18−0.79−40.0▲ 110 · 1d9%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
Sri LankaSouth AsiaHigh 0.757.256.47−0.78−10.7▼ 420 · 2d28%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 · Nascent
EthiopiaAfricaHigh 0.685.704.93−0.77−13.5▼ 226 · 4d21%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 · Inception
DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.703.873.10−0.77−19.8016 · 2d22%Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
MaliAfricaHigh 0.653.412.65−0.77−22.5023 · 3d18%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.6 · Inception
GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.684.533.77−0.76−16.7018 · 1d23%Energy Infrastructure 2.3 · Inception
LiberiaAfricaHigh 0.632.932.17−0.76−25.9▼ 123 · 5d15%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1 · Inception
EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.686.766.01−0.75−11.1▼ 426 · 2d23%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 · Nascent
Cabo VerdeAfricaHigh 0.724.723.97−0.75−16.0▼ 222 · 2d27%Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.673.763.01−0.75−20.0▼ 117 · 3d21%Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
CubaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.605.955.21−0.74−12.5▼ 519 · 2d14%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.5 · Inception
Côte d'IvoireAfricaHigh 0.705.424.68−0.74−13.7▼ 120 · 4d26%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent
EswatiniAfricaHigh 0.653.712.97−0.74−19.901419%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 · Inception
SenegalAfricaHigh 0.726.425.69−0.73−11.3▼ 327 · 2d30%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.1 · Nascent
AngolaAfricaHigh 0.654.603.87−0.73−15.9▲ 114 · 1d21%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.1 · Nascent
VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.554.553.83−0.72−15.9▲ 125 · 3d9%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.3 · Inception
BhutanSouth AsiaHigh 0.683.933.21−0.72−18.3▲ 213 · 2d25%Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 · Inception
MadagascarAfricaHigh 0.613.903.18−0.72−18.5▲ 21118%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.5 · Inception
JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.726.245.54−0.71−11.3▼ 423 · 3d32%Energy Infrastructure 4.4 · Nascent
SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.614.043.32−0.71−17.7▲ 415 · 1d19%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.5 · Inception
HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.552.031.31−0.71−35.1▲ 188%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.1 · Inception
TunisiaAfricaHigh 0.677.717.01−0.70−9.1▼ 319 · 1d27%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.9 · Nascent
Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.623.833.13−0.70−18.3▲ 318 · 1d21%Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Equatorial GuineaAfricaMedium 0.572.802.10−0.70−25.0▲ 423 · 3d13%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.5 · Inception
BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.695.164.48−0.69−13.4▼ 221 · 1d30%Energy Infrastructure 2.3 · Inception
LebanonGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.554.663.96−0.69−14.9021 · 2d12%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.6 · Inception
TuvaluIndo-PacificMedium 0.562.121.42−0.69−32.7▲ 2511%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.2 · Inception
TanzaniaAfricaHigh 0.655.825.15−0.68−11.6▼ 416 · 2d28%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 · Nascent
PalestineGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.563.723.03−0.68−18.3▲ 213 · 3d15%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.4 · Inception
BahrainGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.717.326.65−0.67−9.2▼ 126 · 1d34%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.6 · Inception
SeychellesAfricaHigh 0.685.274.61−0.67−12.6▼ 220 · 2d31%Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.595.054.38−0.67−13.2▼ 221 · 5d22%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 · Inception
ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.649.258.58−0.66−7.2▼ 218 · 2d28%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 · Nascent
KenyaAfricaHigh 0.667.186.52−0.66−9.2▼ 12031%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 · Nascent
BangladeshSouth AsiaHigh 0.616.736.07−0.66−9.8▼ 12125%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 · Nascent
BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.655.564.90−0.66−11.9▲ 113 · 3d28%Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificMedium 0.512.481.84−0.64−25.7▲ 110 · 1d11%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.6 · Inception
CameroonAfricaMedium 0.544.393.76−0.63−14.4014 · 1d20%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.7 · Inception
MongoliaIndo-PacificMedium 0.595.735.12−0.62−10.7▼ 29 · 2d27%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent
MyanmarIndo-PacificMedium 0.493.893.26−0.62−16.0▲ 818 · 3d13%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
VanuatuIndo-PacificMedium 0.522.932.31−0.62−21.2▲ 316 · 1d16%Energy Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception
RwandaAfricaHigh 0.625.955.33−0.61−10.3▼ 415 · 2d30%Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
MoroccoAfricaHigh 0.659.368.76−0.60−6.4▼ 112 · 3d36%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.7 · Foundational
ComorosAfricaMedium 0.482.291.69−0.60−26.2▲ 211 · 2d12%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.5 · Inception
EgyptGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.588.988.38−0.59−6.6▼ 419 · 2d29%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.4 · Nascent
ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.596.656.06−0.59−8.9013 · 2d30%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 · Nascent
NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.504.373.78−0.59−13.4▲ 317 · 2d19%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.8 · Inception
Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMedium 0.513.803.21−0.59−15.5▲ 91520%Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
VietnamIndo-PacificHigh 0.649.689.09−0.58−6.0▼ 215 · 2d36%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.597.176.59−0.58−8.2▲ 27 · 3d32%Monetary & Currency Capability 5.5 · Nascent
TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.494.013.43−0.58−14.5▲ 81718%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 · Inception
LesothoAfricaMedium 0.503.432.85−0.58−17.0▲ 416 · 1d18%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 · Inception
BelarusRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.506.906.33−0.57−8.3019 · 3d21%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.1 · Inception
GreeceEuropeHigh 0.6810.6110.05−0.56−5.3▼ 21543%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.6 · Foundational
San MarinoEuropeMedium 0.575.034.46−0.56−11.2▲ 210 · 3d27%Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception
NepalSouth AsiaMedium 0.514.964.40−0.56−11.3▲ 111 · 2d23%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 · Nascent
CyprusEuropeHigh 0.658.517.96−0.55−6.4018 · 1d41%Energy Infrastructure 5.4 · Nascent
JordanGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.567.506.94−0.55−7.4▼ 21432%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.8 · Nascent
KiribatiIndo-PacificMedium 0.442.201.65−0.55−25.1▲ 41312%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.8 · Inception
MontenegroEuropeMedium 0.516.355.81−0.54−8.6010 · 3d27%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.1 · Nascent
KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.484.774.23−0.54−11.3▼ 114 · 1d21%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.7 · Inception
IranGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.468.177.64−0.53−6.5▼ 211 · 1d21%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent
Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.546.826.29−0.53−7.8017 · 2d32%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.1 · Nascent
FijiIndo-PacificMedium 0.495.164.63−0.53−10.2▲ 115 · 1d25%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.7 · Nascent
AfghanistanSouth AsiaMedium 0.411.460.93−0.53−36.3▲ 386%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
CroatiaEuropeHigh 0.629.539.01−0.52−5.4▼ 121 · 2d42%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.5 · Foundational
UkraineRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.529.408.89−0.52−5.5▼ 119 · 1d32%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.1 · Nascent
South AfricaAfricaHigh 0.6510.7710.26−0.51−4.8▼ 315 · 1d46%Internal Security & Order 8.9 · Foundational
Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.577.767.25−0.51−6.5023 · 4d38%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.3 · Nascent
NamibiaAfricaMedium 0.525.955.44−0.51−8.6▼ 315 · 2d33%Energy Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent
CambodiaIndo-PacificMedium 0.464.934.41−0.51−10.4▲ 418 · 2d22%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3 · Nascent
SamoaIndo-PacificMedium 0.453.482.97−0.51−14.7▲ 418 · 2d19%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.1 · Inception
ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.579.118.61−0.50−5.5018 · 2d39%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.4 · Foundational
SloveniaEuropeHigh 0.6110.489.99−0.49−4.7011 · 2d45%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.2 · Foundational
SlovakiaEuropeMedium 0.5810.109.61−0.49−4.8018 · 3d42%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 · Foundational
MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.6110.8510.37−0.48−4.5▼ 219 · 1d45%Internal Security & Order 8 · Foundational
GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.537.557.06−0.48−6.4019 · 2d37%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 · Nascent
AlbaniaEuropeMedium 0.466.135.66−0.47−7.709 · 4d29%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 · Nascent
GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.445.675.20−0.47−8.3▲ 314 · 1d26%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 · Nascent
KosovoEuropeMedium 0.414.704.24−0.47−9.9▲ 2821%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 · Inception
TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.373.553.08−0.47−13.2▲ 913 · 5d12%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1 · Inception
TongaIndo-PacificMedium 0.403.212.73−0.47−14.7▲ 59 · 3d17%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.6 · Inception
BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.6011.6911.23−0.46−3.9▼ 212 · 2d47%Internal Security & Order 9.7 · Transitional
HungaryEuropeMedium 0.5310.5110.05−0.46−4.4▲ 114 · 1d40%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.2 · Foundational
OmanGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.488.037.58−0.45−5.6017 · 1d36%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.4 · Nascent
NigeriaAfricaMedium 0.447.436.98−0.45−6.001230%Energy Infrastructure 6.3 · Foundational
Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.466.696.24−0.45−6.8▲ 315 · 1d32%Energy Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.445.795.34−0.45−7.8▲ 31228%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.7 · Nascent
LibyaAfricaLow 0.353.012.56−0.45−14.8▲ 52111%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.7 · Inception
MaltaEuropeMedium 0.538.898.45−0.44−4.9011 · 4d43%Energy Infrastructure 5.7 · Nascent
SpainEuropeHigh 0.6213.7813.35−0.43−3.201051%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11.9 · Transitional
PortugalEuropeMedium 0.5811.6811.25−0.43−3.705 · 4d48%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 10.1 · Transitional
UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.528.548.11−0.43−5.1017 · 2d42%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.7 · Foundational
BelgiumEuropeHigh 0.6313.4613.04−0.42−3.1019 · 3d54%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.5 · Established
BotswanaAfricaMedium 0.466.085.66−0.42−6.908 · 2d37%Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
MalaysiaIndo-PacificMedium 0.5411.4811.07−0.41−3.6012 · 1d47%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9.8 · Transitional
MauritiusAfricaMedium 0.508.087.66−0.41−5.1▲ 110 · 2d43%Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Timor-LesteIndo-PacificLow 0.352.982.58−0.41−13.7▲ 712 · 2d17%Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
MicronesiaIndo-PacificLow 0.332.331.91−0.41−17.8▲ 41111%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.7 · Inception
IndiaSouth AsiaMedium 0.5212.6112.21−0.40−3.201246%Internal Security & Order 9.2 · Transitional
AlgeriaAfricaMedium 0.376.966.55−0.40−5.8▲ 311 · 1d25%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.8 · Nascent
MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.386.345.94−0.40−6.3▲ 213 · 4d27%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 · Nascent
Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificLow 0.342.912.51−0.40−13.8▲ 79 · 2d17%Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception
ItalyEuropeMedium 0.5413.7213.33−0.39−2.909 · 1d50%Energy Infrastructure 12.2 · Established
AustriaEuropeMedium 0.6012.8112.41−0.39−3.1017 · 2d54%Energy Infrastructure 11.1 · Transitional
SerbiaEuropeMedium 0.418.978.58−0.38−4.301536%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 · Foundational
North MacedoniaEuropeMedium 0.386.616.23−0.38−5.7▲ 411 · 1d30%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.4 · Nascent
AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.366.796.42−0.37−5.5▲ 3628%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.9 · Nascent
TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.4012.1811.82−0.36−2.9014 · 2d38%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.3 · Foundational
ThailandIndo-PacificMedium 0.4510.7010.34−0.36−3.3▲ 111 · 1d45%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.3 · Foundational
IndonesiaIndo-PacificMedium 0.439.979.61−0.36−3.601141%Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
PhilippinesIndo-PacificMedium 0.408.838.47−0.36−4.1▲ 210 · 2d38%Internal Security & Order 7.6 · Foundational
PeruLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.418.618.25−0.36−4.101340%Internal Security & Order 7.9 · Foundational
United KingdomEuropeHigh 0.6516.4516.10−0.35−2.10963%Internal Security & Order 15.3 · Advanced
IcelandEuropeMedium 0.479.639.28−0.35−3.7▲ 112 · 1d47%Energy Infrastructure 8 · Foundational
IraqGulf and Middle EastLow 0.294.694.34−0.35−7.4▲ 5818%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.9 · Inception
AustraliaIndo-PacificHigh 0.6014.9514.60−0.34−2.3▼ 1861%Energy Infrastructure 12.5 · Established
LithuaniaEuropeMedium 0.4510.7510.41−0.34−3.2▲ 28 · 1d48%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.3 · Transitional
ChileLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.4710.6110.27−0.34−3.2▲ 28 · 2d50%Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
RomaniaEuropeMedium 0.3910.169.82−0.34−3.401140%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.7 · Foundational
LatviaEuropeMedium 0.439.899.55−0.34−3.5019 · 2d45%Energy Infrastructure 8.4 · Foundational
Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeLow 0.315.805.46−0.34−5.8▲ 47 · 2d25%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.9 · Nascent
IrelandEuropeMedium 0.5012.0811.75−0.33−2.7012 · 1d54%Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional
FranceEuropeMedium 0.5716.6416.32−0.32−1.90461%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 15 · Advanced
FinlandEuropeMedium 0.5414.5214.19−0.32−2.2▼ 112 · 1d59%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.3 · Established
New ZealandIndo-PacificMedium 0.5212.8312.51−0.32−2.501357%Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
NetherlandsEuropeMedium 0.5315.5015.19−0.31−2.001 · 1d60%Energy Infrastructure 13.2 · Established
EstoniaEuropeMedium 0.4411.4911.18−0.31−2.70751%Energy Infrastructure 8.2 · Foundational
UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaLow 0.285.925.61−0.31−5.2▲ 310 · 2d24%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.4 · Nascent
United StatesNorth AmericaMedium 0.5818.0317.73−0.30−1.707 · 4d64%Health System Capability 15 · Advanced
CanadaNorth AmericaMedium 0.5315.0614.76−0.30−2.008 · 1d60%Trade Facilitation & Logistics 13.9 · Established
Holy SeeEuropeLow 0.301.851.55−0.30−16.0▲ 9111%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
GermanyEuropeMedium 0.5116.3616.08−0.28−1.70662%Energy Infrastructure 14.4 · Established
KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaLow 0.298.147.87−0.28−3.4▲ 112 · 1d34%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.1 · Nascent
BruneiIndo-PacificLow 0.275.605.32−0.28−4.9▲ 61029%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.4 · Inception
AndorraEuropeLow 0.275.154.88−0.28−5.4▲ 6927%Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
JapanIndo-PacificMedium 0.4916.2615.99−0.27−1.70662%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 14.8 · Established
PolandEuropeMedium 0.3512.3912.12−0.27−2.20447%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 10 · Transitional
QatarGulf and Middle EastLow 0.329.399.13−0.27−2.8▲ 36 · 1d42%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
SingaporeIndo-PacificMedium 0.5615.2014.94−0.26−1.709 · 3d67%Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional
IsraelGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.3714.4614.20−0.26−1.8▲ 110 · 1d51%Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
LuxembourgEuropeMedium 0.4110.7910.53−0.26−2.4▲ 17 · 1d55%Energy Infrastructure 7.6 · Foundational
South KoreaIndo-PacificMedium 0.4116.0015.76−0.25−1.50658%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.7 · Established
TaiwanIndo-PacificMedium 0.3814.0313.78−0.25−1.808 · 2d55%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.5 · Established
SwedenEuropeMedium 0.4015.3015.07−0.23−1.50461%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.9 · Established
United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastLow 0.3011.9411.72−0.22−1.809 · 1d49%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.9 · Inception
KuwaitGulf and Middle EastLow 0.237.517.29−0.21−2.8▲ 4735%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.6 · Nascent
ChinaChinaLow 0.2815.6415.45−0.19−1.20553%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.9 · Nascent
RussiaRussia and EurasiaLow 0.2112.3012.11−0.19−1.50538%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.3 · Nascent
BulgariaEuropeLow 0.218.958.76−0.19−2.1▲ 5839%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8 · Foundational
MonacoEuropeLow 0.195.915.73−0.19−3.1▲ 81031%Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
CzechiaEuropeLow 0.2411.5111.33−0.18−1.6▲ 25 · 1d46%Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9 · Transitional
DenmarkEuropeLow 0.3013.9413.77−0.17−1.307 · 1d59%Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional
LiechtensteinEuropeLow 0.197.227.04−0.17−2.4▲ 56 · 1d35%Energy Infrastructure 4.4 · Nascent
NorwayEuropeLow 0.2614.6214.48−0.15−1.00562%Energy Infrastructure 11.7 · Transitional
Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastLow 0.1911.1911.04−0.15−1.30746%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 · Nascent
SwitzerlandEuropeLow 0.1214.7314.67−0.06−0.4▲ 1162%Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established

Settings of this run

Load
10 capability groups singled out, 64 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out
Energy InfrastructureHighHealth System CapabilityHighPolitical Institutions & Civic ParticipationHighInternal Security & OrderHighGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationHighMonetary & Currency CapabilityHighFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceHighFinancial Stability & Crisis ManagementHighSovereign Capital & External Financial PowerHighTrade Facilitation & LogisticsHigh
Buffers
Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceMonetary & Currency CapabilitySovereign Capital & External Financial PowerPublic Integrity & Anti-Corruption

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure
public debt relative to gdp (ranked) (30%); few months of imports covered by reserves (ranked) (30%); regional exposure (25%); low real gdp per head (ranked) (15%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
Likelihood
4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.
Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results