Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · SOM

Somalia

Baseline index 1.62Rank 195 of 197InceptionAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years92.9rank 2 of 197 · 3 years: 94.8
Worst case−66.5%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −63.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−12.5rank 171 of 197 · 3 years: −15.3
Best case+7Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed5%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.43expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; youth unemployment rate; remittances relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Somalia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−1.08
Food and water shock S11−1.02
Energy supply shock S09−0.98
Global financial crisis S03−0.96
Chokepoint closure S05−0.77
Pandemic S14−0.74
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.73
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.69
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.58
Disaster in the core S10−0.57
Mass displacement S08−0.52
AI diffusion shock S13−0.50
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.49
Hybrid campaign S06−0.20
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.93−1.08−1.11−0.58▼ 14Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.96−1.02−1.08−0.5404Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 1.00−0.98−1.02−0.54▼ 14Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.83−0.96−1.00−0.52▼ 14Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.78−0.77−0.81−0.41▼ 16Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.58−0.74−0.79−0.36▼ 12Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.93−0.73−0.75−0.39▼ 13Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.60−0.69−0.74−0.3403Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.86−0.58−0.60−0.31▼ 11Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.57−0.57−0.62−0.2703Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.64−0.52−0.56−0.2502Internal Security & Order 0.3 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.44−0.50−0.52−0.24▲ 12Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.43−0.49−0.51−0.24▼ 12Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.21−0.20−0.22−0.10▲ 13Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.91−0.59−1.36−1.25−1.60−1.56−1.15−1.27
Food and water shock−0.04−1.04−0.59−1.48−1.46−1.43−0.76−1.14−1.27
Energy supply shock−0.04−1.27−0.63−0.71−0.71−1.41−1.59−1.30−1.20
Global financial crisis−0.13−0.58−0.52−1.13−1.13−1.40−1.52−1.11−1.12
Chokepoint closure−0.04−1.18−0.99·−0.63−1.34−0.54−0.99−1.18
Pandemic−0.13−0.45−0.37−1.08−0.95−1.02−0.95−0.80−0.93
Legitimacy crisis−0.13·−1.11−0.65−1.29−1.80−1.54··
Infrastructure collapse−0.13−1.13−0.42−0.42−0.42−1.05−0.91−0.91−0.84
Single-supplier cut-off−0.13−0.40−0.55−0.68·−1.16·−1.19−1.12
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.16−0.35−0.87−0.39−0.98−0.52−0.39−0.39
Mass displacement·−0.52−0.39−1.07−0.87−1.20−0.51−0.06·
AI diffusion shock−0.13−0.31−0.28−0.81−0.63−0.83−0.73−0.40−0.36
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.13−0.30−0.27·−0.71−0.66−0.71−0.68−0.95
Hybrid campaign−0.04−0.35−0.38·−0.39−0.36·−0.15−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Somalia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+6.6
Energy abundance S16+3.1
Sovereign debt reset S19+1.8
Yield revolution S220.0
Middle East settlement S21−1.1
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−1.5
Great-power détente S18−6.4
100-day pandemic defence S24−11.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−20.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15−44.2
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+6.67.20.68101Investment Attraction & Projection 1.3 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+3.14.51.45123Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+1.86.34.57120Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed0.04.64.6599Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed−1.15.76.910146Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−1.53.55.0494Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−6.42.58.97149Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Loser−11.22.213.44194Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−20.96.227.16189Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−44.21.345.54194Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception