Hybrid campaign · Results · Macro Scenarios

Typical nation−0.25median change in index, points

Hardest hit−0.59Latvia

Lose a domain band96of 197 nations

Worth of best practice+0.10mean points recovered over current plans

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Information & Influence−0.50

Governance & Integrity−0.47

Strategic Infrastructure−0.45

National Security−0.45

Production & Innovation−0.19

Trade & Investment−0.19

Critical Technology−0.17

Human Capital0.00

Financial Strength0.00

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

No responseCurrent plansBest practice

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Region

										Weakest point
Latvia	Europe	High 0.89	9.89	9.30	−0.59	−6.0	▼ 1	22 · 3d	40%	Air Power 2.4 · Inception
Lithuania	Europe	High 0.88	10.75	10.19	−0.56	−5.2	▼ 3	18	43%	Maritime Power 3.2 · Nascent
Kazakhstan	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.73	8.14	7.59	−0.55	−6.8	▼ 3	26 · 1d	31%	Maritime Power 1.5 · Inception
Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.71	7.55	6.99	−0.55	−7.3	▼ 5	19	30%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.1 · Inception
Azerbaijan	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.72	6.79	6.24	−0.55	−8.1	▼ 4	15 · 2d	31%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception
Estonia	Europe	High 0.89	11.49	10.97	−0.52	−4.5	▼ 1	8 · 1d	48%	Air Power 3.1 · Nascent
Poland	Europe	High 0.93	12.39	11.88	−0.51	−4.1	▼ 2	14 · 1d	50%	Maritime Power 7.4 · Foundational
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	Medium 0.52	5.80	5.33	−0.46	−8.0	▼ 6	7 · 3d	20%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Kosovo	Europe	Medium 0.53	4.70	4.24	−0.46	−9.8	▼ 6	12	17%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Finland	Europe	High 0.89	14.52	14.06	−0.45	−3.1	▼ 1	17	54%	Maritime Power 9.3 · Transitional
Monaco	Europe	Medium 0.55	5.91	5.46	−0.45	−7.6	▼ 5	12	17%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Norway	Europe	High 0.90	14.62	14.18	−0.44	−3.0	▼ 1	11 · 1d	55%	Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
Liechtenstein	Europe	Medium 0.55	7.22	6.78	−0.44	−6.0	▼ 2	10 · 3d	15%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Montenegro	Europe	Medium 0.54	6.35	5.91	−0.44	−6.9	▼ 2	9 · 1d	26%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.4 · Inception
Albania	Europe	Medium 0.52	6.13	5.70	−0.44	−7.1	▼ 4	7 · 3d	24%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.2 · Inception
Malta	Europe	Medium 0.54	8.89	8.45	−0.43	−4.9	▼ 1	15 · 2d	27%	Air Power 1.1 · Inception
Cyprus	Europe	Medium 0.54	8.51	8.08	−0.43	−5.0	0	14 · 1d	28%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception
North Macedonia	Europe	Medium 0.53	6.61	6.18	−0.43	−6.5	▼ 1	12 · 1d	25%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Iceland	Europe	Medium 0.55	9.63	9.21	−0.42	−4.4	0	14 · 2d	30%	Air Power 0.8 · Inception
Andorra	Europe	Medium 0.54	5.15	4.74	−0.41	−8.0	▼ 2	10	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
San Marino	Europe	Medium 0.53	5.03	4.62	−0.41	−8.1	▼ 3	8	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Slovakia	Europe	Medium 0.58	10.10	9.70	−0.40	−3.9	▼ 1	17 · 3d	37%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Ukraine	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.71	9.40	9.00	−0.40	−4.3	▼ 3	12 · 1d	49%	Maritime Power 5.7 · Nascent
Hungary	Europe	Medium 0.59	10.51	10.12	−0.39	−3.8	0	16 · 1d	38%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Serbia	Europe	Medium 0.53	8.97	8.58	−0.39	−4.3	0	13 · 1d	34%	Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception
Ireland	Europe	Medium 0.55	12.08	11.69	−0.38	−3.2	▼ 1	12 · 2d	36%	Air Power 1.7 · Inception
Luxembourg	Europe	Medium 0.55	10.79	10.41	−0.38	−3.6	▼ 3	11 · 1d	35%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Romania	Europe	Medium 0.58	10.16	9.78	−0.38	−3.8	0	14	41%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.3 · Nascent
Bulgaria	Europe	Medium 0.52	8.95	8.57	−0.38	−4.2	▼ 1	14 · 1d	34%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.9 · Nascent
Slovenia	Europe	Medium 0.54	10.48	10.11	−0.37	−3.6	0	10 · 2d	37%	Maritime Power 2 · Inception
Croatia	Europe	Medium 0.52	9.53	9.16	−0.37	−3.9	▼ 1	12 · 3d	36%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.7 · Inception
Lebanon	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.42	4.66	4.28	−0.37	−8.0	▼ 2	17 · 2d	19%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception
Austria	Europe	Medium 0.54	12.81	12.45	−0.36	−2.8	0	9 · 2d	39%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Jordan	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.48	7.50	7.14	−0.36	−4.8	0	10 · 1d	33%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.5 · Inception
Uzbekistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.42	5.92	5.56	−0.36	−6.1	▼ 2	9 · 2d	21%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Iraq	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.41	4.69	4.33	−0.36	−7.7	▼ 1	10 · 1d	21%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception
Greece	Europe	Medium 0.53	10.61	10.27	−0.35	−3.3	0	7	41%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.1 · Nascent
Portugal	Europe	Medium 0.53	11.68	11.34	−0.34	−2.9	0	7 · 2d	43%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.7 · Nascent
Kuwait	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.44	7.51	7.16	−0.34	−4.6	0	10 · 1d	29%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.1 · Inception
Brunei	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.39	5.60	5.26	−0.34	−6.0	▼ 2	15	20%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Laos	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.39	3.70	3.36	−0.34	−9.2	▼ 2	5	15%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Libya	Africa	Medium 0.35	3.01	2.67	−0.34	−11.4	▼ 2	13	10%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception
Belgium	Europe	Medium 0.54	13.46	13.13	−0.33	−2.5	0	12 · 2d	46%	Maritime Power 6.9 · Foundational
Oman	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.43	8.03	7.70	−0.33	−4.1	0	8	32%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception
Moldova	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.41	6.34	6.01	−0.33	−5.2	0	13 · 3d	25%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Tajikistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.38	4.01	3.68	−0.33	−8.2	▼ 2	10	17%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.37	3.72	3.38	−0.33	−8.9	▼ 2	4 · 1d	14%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Holy See	Europe	Medium 0.53	1.85	1.52	−0.33	−17.9	0	7 · 1d	14%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Czechia	Europe	Medium 0.53	11.51	11.19	−0.32	−2.8	▼ 1	10 · 1d	44%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Kyrgyzstan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.37	4.77	4.44	−0.32	−6.8	▼ 1	7	19%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Maldives	South Asia	Medium 0.37	4.62	4.30	−0.32	−6.9	0	9	17%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Bhutan	South Asia	Medium 0.37	3.93	3.60	−0.32	−8.2	▼ 5	7 · 1d	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Syria	Gulf and Middle East	Low 0.34	2.22	1.90	−0.32	−14.4	▼ 1	10 · 2d	13%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.4 · Inception
Switzerland	Europe	Medium 0.55	14.73	14.42	−0.31	−2.1	0	7	47%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Denmark	Europe	Medium 0.55	13.94	13.63	−0.31	−2.2	0	10 · 1d	49%	Maritime Power 9.2 · Transitional
Egypt	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.45	8.98	8.67	−0.31	−3.4	0	12	38%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.8 · Nascent
Iran	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.46	8.17	7.86	−0.31	−3.8	▼ 1	10	40%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 7.6 · Foundational
Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.39	7.32	7.01	−0.31	−4.2	▲ 1	14	28%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.6 · Inception
Fiji	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.36	5.16	4.85	−0.31	−6.1	▼ 2	8	19%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Kiribati	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.37	2.20	1.89	−0.31	−14.3	▼ 1	8	7%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Cambodia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.33	4.93	4.63	−0.30	−6.0	▲ 1	8	18%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Myanmar	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.33	3.89	3.59	−0.30	−7.8	▼ 4	7 · 2d	17%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception
Turkmenistan	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.32	3.55	3.25	−0.30	−8.5	▼ 2	10 · 3d	13%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.2 · Inception
Nauru	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.36	1.96	1.66	−0.30	−15.4	0	5	6%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Spain	Europe	Medium 0.54	13.78	13.49	−0.29	−2.1	0	9	52%	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.9 · Transitional
Italy	Europe	Medium 0.53	13.72	13.44	−0.29	−2.1	0	13 · 1d	52%	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.6 · Transitional
Saudi Arabia	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.49	11.19	10.91	−0.29	−2.6	0	11 · 2d	47%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.8 · Nascent
Thailand	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.42	10.70	10.41	−0.29	−2.7	▲ 1	11 · 2d	39%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.2 · Nascent
Bangladesh	South Asia	Medium 0.36	6.73	6.44	−0.29	−4.3	0	10	27%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception
Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.36	6.65	6.36	−0.29	−4.4	▲ 1	7 · 1d	25%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Mongolia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.35	5.73	5.44	−0.29	−5.1	▼ 2	5 · 2d	22%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Tonga	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.33	3.21	2.92	−0.29	−9.0	▼ 3	6 · 3d	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Marshall Islands	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.34	2.48	2.19	−0.29	−11.6	0	4 · 1d	10%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Tuvalu	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.35	2.12	1.82	−0.29	−13.8	▼ 2	3	7%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Nepal	South Asia	Low 0.32	4.96	4.68	−0.28	−5.7	0	6	19%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Samoa	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.33	3.48	3.20	−0.28	−8.1	▼ 2	6 · 1d	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Djibouti	Africa	Low 0.32	3.20	2.92	−0.28	−8.8	▼ 1	9	15%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Guyana	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.29	4.53	4.26	−0.27	−5.9	▲ 1	8	15%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Vanuatu	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.31	2.93	2.65	−0.27	−9.3	▼ 1	4	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Solomon Islands	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.30	2.91	2.64	−0.27	−9.3	▼ 1	4 · 2d	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Netherlands	Europe	Medium 0.55	15.50	15.23	−0.26	−1.7	0	4 · 1d	57%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 · Established
Sweden	Europe	Medium 0.54	15.30	15.04	−0.26	−1.7	0	10	56%	Maritime Power 12 · Established
Malaysia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.39	11.48	11.23	−0.26	−2.2	▲ 2	8	40%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 6.1 · Foundational
Qatar	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.39	9.39	9.13	−0.26	−2.8	0	3	39%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.4 · Inception
Philippines	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.37	8.83	8.57	−0.26	−2.9	▲ 2	12 · 1d	36%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.8 · Inception
Sri Lanka	South Asia	Low 0.32	7.25	6.99	−0.26	−3.5	▲ 1	10 · 1d	27%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.5 · Inception
Algeria	Africa	Low 0.34	6.96	6.69	−0.26	−3.8	▼ 1	12	29%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2 · Inception
Dominican Republic	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.30	6.82	6.56	−0.26	−3.8	0	8 · 2d	22%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception
Congo	Africa	Low 0.28	3.19	2.93	−0.26	−8.2	▲ 1	8 · 2d	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Timor-Leste	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.29	2.98	2.73	−0.26	−8.6	0	8 · 2d	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Micronesia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.30	2.33	2.07	−0.26	−11.1	▼ 1	5	9%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Yemen	Gulf and Middle East	Low 0.26	1.62	1.37	−0.26	−15.8	▼ 1	2	8%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Türkiye	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.47	12.18	11.92	−0.25	−2.1	▲ 1	12	52%	Internal Security & Order 11.3 · Transitional
Vietnam	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.36	9.68	9.43	−0.25	−2.5	▲ 1	13 · 1d	38%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.5 · Nascent
Côte d'Ivoire	Africa	Low 0.28	5.42	5.17	−0.25	−4.6	0	8 · 1d	20%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception
Benin	Africa	Low 0.27	4.09	3.84	−0.25	−6.0	▼ 1	8	15%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Papua New Guinea	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.28	3.80	3.55	−0.25	−6.7	▼ 2	9	15%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Mali	Africa	Low 0.27	3.41	3.17	−0.25	−7.2	0	11	14%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
DR Congo	Africa	Low 0.27	2.87	2.62	−0.25	−8.7	▼ 1	6 · 2d	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Sudan	Africa	Low 0.26	2.61	2.36	−0.25	−9.7	0	8 · 1d	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception
Germany	Europe	Medium 0.54	16.36	16.12	−0.24	−1.5	0	9	61%	Maritime Power 11.9 · Transitional
Indonesia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.34	9.97	9.73	−0.24	−2.4	▲ 1	9	38%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.1 · Nascent
Palau	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.28	2.84	2.60	−0.24	−8.5	▼ 1	3 · 1d	10%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Eritrea	Africa	Low 0.25	2.01	1.77	−0.24	−11.9	0	7	9%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Afghanistan	South Asia	Low 0.27	1.46	1.22	−0.24	−16.4	0	5	6%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
United Arab Emirates	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.39	11.94	11.71	−0.23	−1.9	▲ 1	10 · 1d	48%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.5 · Nascent
Pakistan	South Asia	Low 0.33	7.96	7.73	−0.23	−2.9	▲ 2	10 · 1d	38%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.9 · Nascent
Ghana	Africa	Low 0.27	6.98	6.76	−0.23	−3.2	0	9 · 1d	26%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.1 · Inception
Bahamas	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.26	5.16	4.93	−0.23	−4.5	0	5	15%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Niger	Africa	Low 0.25	3.07	2.84	−0.23	−7.5	0	8 · 1d	13%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Tunisia	Africa	Low 0.28	7.71	7.49	−0.22	−2.9	0	7 · 1d	28%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.1 · Inception
Kenya	Africa	Low 0.27	7.18	6.96	−0.22	−3.1	0	6	27%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.3 · Inception
Trinidad & Tobago	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.25	6.69	6.48	−0.22	−3.2	▲ 2	11	21%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception
Senegal	Africa	Low 0.26	6.42	6.20	−0.22	−3.4	▲ 1	12	25%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception
Seychelles	Africa	Low 0.25	5.27	5.05	−0.22	−4.2	0	6 · 1d	16%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Angola	Africa	Low 0.24	4.60	4.39	−0.22	−4.7	▲ 4	4 · 1d	17%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception
Suriname	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	4.04	3.82	−0.22	−5.4	▼ 1	7	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Dominica	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.25	3.87	3.65	−0.22	−5.7	▲ 2	4	10%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Burkina Faso	Africa	Low 0.25	3.47	3.25	−0.22	−6.3	▲ 1	8	14%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Chad	Africa	Low 0.24	2.26	2.05	−0.22	−9.6	0	8 · 1d	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
South Sudan	Africa	Low 0.23	1.38	1.16	−0.22	−15.7	0	2	7%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
France	Europe	Medium 0.53	16.64	16.43	−0.21	−1.2	0	4	65%	Internal Security & Order 15.1 · Advanced
Israel	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.47	14.46	14.25	−0.21	−1.5	▲ 2	9	60%	Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.38	14.03	13.82	−0.21	−1.5	0	7 · 1d	49%	Alliances & Security Cooperation 7.9 · Foundational
New Zealand	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.38	12.83	12.62	−0.21	−1.7	0	10	50%	Air Power 5.7 · Nascent
India	South Asia	Medium 0.37	12.61	12.40	−0.21	−1.7	0	5	49%	Internal Security & Order 9.4 · Transitional
Uruguay	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.26	8.54	8.34	−0.21	−2.4	0	9 · 1d	26%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.5 · Inception
Costa Rica	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.25	7.76	7.55	−0.21	−2.7	0	6 · 3d	23%	Air Power 0 · Inception
Jamaica	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	6.24	6.03	−0.21	−3.4	▲ 2	7 · 1d	21%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception
Botswana	Africa	Low 0.24	6.08	5.87	−0.21	−3.4	▲ 1	4	19%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Paraguay	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	5.79	5.58	−0.21	−3.6	▲ 3	5	20%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception
Barbados	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	5.56	5.35	−0.21	−3.7	▲ 2	6 · 1d	15%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Uganda	Africa	Low 0.24	5.53	5.32	−0.21	−3.8	▲ 1	10 · 2d	21%	Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception
Cameroon	Africa	Low 0.23	4.39	4.18	−0.21	−4.9	▼ 1	6 · 1d	16%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception
Antigua & Barbuda	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	4.36	4.15	−0.21	−4.8	▼ 2	5 · 1d	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Belize	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	4.03	3.82	−0.21	−5.2	▲ 1	6	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Gabon	Africa	Low 0.23	3.94	3.73	−0.21	−5.3	0	7	14%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception
Saint Kitts & Nevis	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	3.83	3.63	−0.21	−5.4	▲ 1	5	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	3.76	3.55	−0.21	−5.5	▲ 1	5	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Mauritania	Africa	Low 0.23	3.58	3.37	−0.21	−5.9	▲ 1	4	14%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception
Central African Rep.	Africa	Low 0.23	1.66	1.45	−0.21	−12.7	0	4	6%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
United Kingdom	Europe	Medium 0.53	16.45	16.25	−0.20	−1.2	0	6	66%	Internal Security & Order 15.5 · Advanced
Colombia	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.29	9.11	8.91	−0.20	−2.2	0	11	35%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.5 · Inception
Mauritius	Africa	Low 0.24	8.08	7.88	−0.20	−2.5	▲ 2	6 · 1d	24%	Air Power 1 · Inception
Panama	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	7.17	6.97	−0.20	−2.8	▲ 2	4	23%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception
Ecuador	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	6.76	6.56	−0.20	−2.9	▲ 1	11	24%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.5 · Inception
Ethiopia	Africa	Low 0.25	5.70	5.49	−0.20	−3.6	▲ 3	9 · 1d	25%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
El Salvador	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.22	5.68	5.48	−0.20	−3.5	▲ 2	12 · 1d	20%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception
Bolivia	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.22	5.11	4.90	−0.20	−4.0	▲ 2	7	18%	Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception
Zambia	Africa	Low 0.22	4.93	4.73	−0.20	−4.0	▲ 2	4	18%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Cabo Verde	Africa	Low 0.23	4.72	4.52	−0.20	−4.3	▲ 1	5 · 1d	14%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Togo	Africa	Low 0.23	4.05	3.85	−0.20	−5.0	▲ 1	6	15%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Grenada	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	4.04	3.84	−0.20	−5.1	0	3 · 1d	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Saint Lucia	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	3.85	3.65	−0.20	−5.2	▲ 2	7	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Guinea	Africa	Low 0.21	3.15	2.95	−0.20	−6.4	▲ 3	3 · 1d	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception
Equatorial Guinea	Africa	Low 0.21	2.80	2.60	−0.20	−7.2	▲ 1	6	10%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Somalia	Africa	Low 0.21	1.62	1.42	−0.20	−12.4	▲ 1	3	9%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Brazil	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.30	11.69	11.50	−0.19	−1.6	0	11 · 1d	42%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 8.5 · Foundational
Chile	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.26	10.61	10.42	−0.19	−1.8	▲ 4	6	36%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.5 · Nascent
Argentina	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.25	9.25	9.06	−0.19	−2.0	▲ 1	8 · 1d	32%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.7 · Nascent
Peru	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	8.61	8.42	−0.19	−2.2	0	8 · 1d	29%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.5 · Inception
Namibia	Africa	Low 0.22	5.95	5.76	−0.19	−3.3	▼ 1	4	19%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception
Tanzania	Africa	Low 0.21	5.82	5.64	−0.19	−3.2	▲ 2	8 · 1d	21%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception
Honduras	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.21	5.05	4.86	−0.19	−3.7	▲ 2	7 · 1d	18%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception
Nicaragua	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.21	4.37	4.18	−0.19	−4.3	▲ 1	6 · 1d	17%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception
Eswatini	Africa	Low 0.21	3.71	3.53	−0.19	−5.0	▲ 1	4	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
São Tomé & Príncipe	Africa	Low 0.21	2.85	2.66	−0.19	−6.8	▲ 3	9 · 1d	8%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Singapore	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.38	15.20	15.01	−0.18	−1.2	0	6 · 3d	56%	Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional
Morocco	Africa	Low 0.26	9.36	9.18	−0.18	−1.9	▲ 3	3 · 1d	38%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.4 · Nascent
Cuba	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	5.95	5.77	−0.18	−3.0	▲ 2	6	30%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.2 · Inception
Rwanda	Africa	Low 0.22	5.95	5.77	−0.18	−2.9	▲ 2	5 · 1d	26%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Guatemala	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.20	5.67	5.49	−0.18	−3.2	▲ 4	11	19%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.8 · Inception
Venezuela	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.21	4.55	4.37	−0.18	−4.0	▲ 4	9	22%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.8 · Inception
Japan	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.37	16.26	16.09	−0.17	−1.0	0	5	59%	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 13.5 · Established
South Korea	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.39	16.00	15.83	−0.17	−1.1	0	6	60%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.2 · Advanced
Australia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.39	14.95	14.77	−0.17	−1.1	0	8	60%	Energy Infrastructure 12.8 · Established
Mexico	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	10.85	10.68	−0.17	−1.5	0	8	38%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.6 · Nascent
Nigeria	Africa	Low 0.23	7.43	7.25	−0.17	−2.3	▲ 3	7	32%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.2 · Inception
Lesotho	Africa	Low 0.19	3.43	3.26	−0.17	−5.0	▲ 3	5	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Gambia	Africa	Low 0.19	3.32	3.14	−0.17	−5.2	0	6	12%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Burundi	Africa	Low 0.19	2.48	2.31	−0.17	−6.8	0	6	10%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Haiti	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.18	2.03	1.86	−0.17	−8.3	▲ 1	3	6%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
South Africa	Africa	Low 0.23	10.77	10.61	−0.16	−1.5	▲ 1	10	38%	Maritime Power 7.3 · Foundational
Zimbabwe	Africa	Low 0.18	4.34	4.17	−0.16	−3.7	▲ 1	4 · 1d	17%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Comoros	Africa	Low 0.17	2.29	2.13	−0.16	−7.0	▲ 1	3	8%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Guinea-Bissau	Africa	Low 0.17	2.07	1.92	−0.16	−7.7	▲ 3	8 · 1d	8%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Belarus	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.20	6.90	6.75	−0.15	−2.2	▲ 1	8 · 1d	31%	Maritime Power 0.6 · Inception
Russia	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.30	12.30	12.16	−0.14	−1.2	▲ 1	4	57%	Internal Security & Order 9.9 · Transitional
Mozambique	Africa	Low 0.15	4.12	3.98	−0.14	−3.4	0	8	16%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.4 · Inception
Madagascar	Africa	Low 0.15	3.90	3.76	−0.14	−3.6	▲ 3	4	14%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.4 · Inception
Sierra Leone	Africa	Low 0.15	3.59	3.46	−0.14	−3.9	▲ 2	6	13%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Liberia	Africa	Low 0.16	2.93	2.79	−0.14	−4.8	▲ 2	4	11%	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Canada	North America	Low 0.26	15.06	14.93	−0.13	−0.8	0	8	57%	Maritime Power 10.9 · Transitional
Malawi	Africa	Low 0.15	3.76	3.63	−0.13	−3.6	▲ 4	4	14%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
North Korea	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.15	4.26	4.15	−0.11	−2.7	▲ 1	8	32%	Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
China	China	Low 0.20	15.64	15.56	−0.09	−0.5	0	4	62%	Internal Security & Order 13.4 · Established
United States	North America	Low 0.26	18.03	17.94	−0.08	−0.5	0	3 · 2d	71%	Internal Security & Order 15.8 · Advanced

Settings of this run

Load: 11 capability groups singled out, 58 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out: Sensing, Timing & NavigationMediumEnergy InfrastructureHighCommunications & Digital InfrastructureHighIntelligence & AssessmentHighMaritime PowerHighAir PowerHighCyber & Electromagnetic OperationsHighAlliances & Security CooperationHighInformation Environment & Strategic CommunicationHighInternal Security & OrderHighNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementHigh
Buffers: Intelligence & AssessmentCyber & Electromagnetic OperationsNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementInformation Environment & Strategic CommunicationAlliances & Security Cooperation
Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.
Exposure: regional exposure (40%); land border with russia or belarus (35%); internet users as a share of population (15%); land borders with states in conflict or collapse (10%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others. A land border with Russia or Belarus raises exposure to a hybrid campaign for most neighbours. These nations are set by hand because the border does not carry that meaning for them.
Likelihood: 22 per cent over three years and 40 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results

Hybrid campaign by a hostile state

Change in index, by region

Does capability protect?

Where the load lands

What policy is worth

All 197 nations

Settings of this run