Iceland · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years11.2rank 142 of 197 · 3 years: 11.4

Worst case−8.2%Infrastructure collapse · tail −8.0%

Opportunity · 10 years+11.4rank 41 of 197 · 3 years: +12.3

Best case+36Energy abundance · gainer in 4 of 10

Shock absorbed41%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.58expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Hybrid campaign, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Iceland’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.79

Energy supply shock S09−0.78

Pandemic S14−0.74

AI diffusion shock S13−0.62

Global financial crisis S03−0.61

Chokepoint closure S05−0.61

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.50

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.42

Hybrid campaign S06−0.42

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.35

Disaster in the core S10−0.30

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.24

Mass displacement S08−0.22

Food and water shock S11−0.09

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.84	−0.79	−1.19	−0.53	▼ 1	28	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.93	−0.78	−1.19	−0.52	▼ 4	28	Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.84	−0.74	−1.29	−0.57	0	27	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.86	−0.62	−1.15	−0.51	0	22	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.76	−0.61	−1.12	−0.49	▲ 1	22	Economic Output & Productivity 7.8 · Foundational
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.77	−0.61	−0.89	−0.40	▼ 4	21	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0.6 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.56	−0.50	−0.78	−0.35	▲ 1	18	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.64	−0.42	−0.63	−0.28	▲ 1	15	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.55	−0.42	−0.60	−0.27	0	14	Air Power 0.8 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.47	−0.35	−0.67	−0.29	▲ 1	12	Energy Infrastructure 8 · Foundational
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.62	−0.30	−0.67	−0.29	▲ 1	11	Energy Infrastructure 7.9 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.48	−0.24	−0.49	−0.21	▲ 1	7	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.6 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.56	−0.22	−0.49	−0.21	0	5	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12 · Established
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.13	−0.09	−0.17	−0.07	▲ 1	5	Resource Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.95	−1.16	−0.41	−0.41	−0.41	−1.04	−0.97	−0.95	−0.83
Energy supply shock	−0.18	−1.09	−0.40	−0.45	−0.45	−1.02	−1.21	−1.17	−1.04
Pandemic	−0.76	−0.40	−0.32	−0.97	−0.84	−0.91	−0.84	−0.83	−0.83
AI diffusion shock	−0.78	−0.34	−0.31	−0.91	−0.68	−0.94	−0.79	−0.44	−0.39
Global financial crisis	−0.31	−0.31	−0.28	−0.62	−0.62	−0.77	−1.03	−0.88	−0.70
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−1.02	−0.79	·	−0.46	−0.98	−0.39	−0.78	−1.01
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.62	−0.27	−0.24	·	−0.62	−0.60	−0.62	−0.61	−0.91
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.78	−0.22	−0.28	−0.35	·	−0.70	·	−0.72	−0.72
Hybrid campaign	−0.32	−0.69	−0.72	·	−0.77	−0.72	·	−0.29	−0.29
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.29	−0.17	−0.41	−0.37	−0.51	−0.61	−0.37	−0.42
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.63	−0.19	−0.47	−0.21	−0.53	−0.28	−0.21	−0.21
Legitimacy crisis	−0.17	·	−0.35	−0.17	−0.41	−0.57	−0.47	·	·
Mass displacement	·	−0.23	−0.17	−0.46	−0.38	−0.52	−0.22	−0.03	·
Food and water shock	−0.01	−0.10	−0.05	−0.12	−0.12	−0.13	−0.06	−0.10	−0.11

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Iceland is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+35.7

100-day pandemic defence S24+34.4

Middle East settlement S21+28.2

Great-power détente S18+12.3

Superintelligence takeoff S15+7.8

Digital state leapfrog S23+4.8

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+0.9

Emerging-market breakout S20+0.9

Sovereign debt reset S19−3.5

Yield revolution S22−5.2

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+35.7	36.0	0.2	36	28	Energy Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+34.4	36.2	1.8	46	35	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+28.2	29.2	1.0	49	31	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+12.3	24.5	12.2	46	51	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	+7.8	22.0	14.2	31	33	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+4.8	9.6	4.8	42	53	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+0.9	19.5	18.6	48	82	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+0.9	13.1	12.2	51	149	Energy Infrastructure 8.8 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−3.5	2.6	6.1	69	178	Financial Regulation & Integrity 13 · Established
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−5.2	3.9	9.2	44	124	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational