Change in index, by region
One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.
Does capability protect?
Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.
Where the load lands
Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.
What policy is worth
The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.
All 197 nations
Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.
| Weakest point | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libya | Africa | High 0.90 | 3.01 | 1.93 | −1.07 | −35.7 | ▼ 8 | 31 | 11% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Gabon | Africa | High 0.88 | 3.94 | 2.94 | −1.00 | −25.4 | ▼ 13 | 25 · 1d | 14% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Venezuela | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.85 | 4.55 | 3.56 | −0.99 | −21.8 | ▼ 5 | 28 · 4d | 18% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Bahamas | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.93 | 5.16 | 4.19 | −0.98 | −18.9 | ▼ 8 | 23 · 1d | 17% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Uruguay | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.96 | 8.54 | 7.59 | −0.96 | −11.2 | ▼ 1 | 26 · 4d | 30% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Dominican Republic | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.90 | 6.82 | 5.86 | −0.96 | −14.1 | ▼ 5 | 26 · 3d | 24% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Botswana | Africa | High 0.85 | 6.08 | 5.14 | −0.94 | −15.5 | ▼ 4 | 23 · 5d | 19% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cuba | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.83 | 5.95 | 5.02 | −0.93 | −15.6 | ▼ 5 | 18 · 3d | 23% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception |
| Costa Rica | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.89 | 7.76 | 6.84 | −0.92 | −11.8 | ▼ 1 | 25 · 5d | 28% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Djibouti | Africa | High 0.82 | 3.20 | 2.29 | −0.92 | −28.6 | ▼ 6 | 25 · 3d | 12% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Bolivia | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.81 | 5.11 | 4.20 | −0.91 | −17.8 | ▼ 4 | 22 · 1d | 18% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Lebanon | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.77 | 4.66 | 3.74 | −0.91 | −19.6 | ▼ 3 | 23 · 3d | 17% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Dominica | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.85 | 3.87 | 2.96 | −0.91 | −23.4 | ▼ 7 | 20 · 3d | 13% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Algeria | Africa | High 0.84 | 6.96 | 6.06 | −0.90 | −12.9 | ▼ 2 | 22 · 4d | 26% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception |
| El Salvador | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.82 | 5.68 | 4.78 | −0.90 | −15.9 | ▼ 3 | 23 · 5d | 21% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Suriname | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.82 | 4.04 | 3.14 | −0.90 | −22.2 | ▼ 7 | 23 · 2d | 14% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Equatorial Guinea | Africa | High 0.79 | 2.80 | 1.90 | −0.90 | −32.3 | ▼ 2 | 26 · 3d | 10% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Peru | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.87 | 8.61 | 7.71 | −0.89 | −10.4 | ▼ 1 | 32 · 3d | 28% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception |
| Kuwait | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.86 | 7.51 | 6.61 | −0.89 | −11.9 | ▼ 4 | 24 · 3d | 28% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Paraguay | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.80 | 5.79 | 4.89 | −0.89 | −15.4 | ▼ 3 | 20 · 3d | 20% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Palestine | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.74 | 3.72 | 2.83 | −0.89 | −23.9 | ▼ 6 | 14 · 4d | 12% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| São Tomé & Príncipe | Africa | High 0.80 | 2.85 | 1.96 | −0.89 | −31.1 | ▼ 1 | 25 · 2d | 9% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Argentina | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.94 | 9.25 | 8.37 | −0.88 | −9.5 | ▼ 1 | 23 · 3d | 35% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Ecuador | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.81 | 6.76 | 5.88 | −0.88 | −13.0 | ▼ 2 | 23 · 1d | 24% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Jamaica | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.80 | 6.24 | 5.37 | −0.88 | −14.0 | ▼ 2 | 22 · 3d | 21% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Cabo Verde | Africa | High 0.81 | 4.72 | 3.85 | −0.88 | −18.6 | ▼ 2 | 25 · 2d | 16% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Seychelles | Africa | High 0.82 | 5.27 | 4.41 | −0.87 | −16.4 | ▼ 1 | 26 · 2d | 18% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Panama | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.83 | 7.17 | 6.31 | −0.86 | −12.0 | 0 | 14 · 3d | 26% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Trinidad & Tobago | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.79 | 6.69 | 5.84 | −0.86 | −12.8 | ▼ 2 | 22 · 1d | 23% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Monaco | Europe | High 0.86 | 5.91 | 5.05 | −0.86 | −14.6 | ▼ 2 | 18 · 2d | 23% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chile | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.94 | 10.61 | 9.76 | −0.85 | −8.1 | ▼ 2 | 17 · 3d | 37% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2 · Inception |
| Colombia | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.87 | 9.11 | 8.27 | −0.85 | −9.3 | ▼ 3 | 25 · 3d | 33% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception |
| Tunisia | Africa | High 0.81 | 7.71 | 6.86 | −0.85 | −11.0 | ▲ 1 | 24 · 2d | 27% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.6 · Inception |
| Jordan | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.81 | 7.50 | 6.66 | −0.84 | −11.2 | 0 | 22 | 28% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception |
| Bahrain | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.82 | 7.32 | 6.48 | −0.84 | −11.5 | ▼ 3 | 23 | 28% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Honduras | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.73 | 5.05 | 4.21 | −0.84 | −16.6 | ▼ 1 | 26 · 5d | 18% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Ghana | Africa | High 0.77 | 6.98 | 6.15 | −0.83 | −11.9 | 0 | 18 · 1d | 24% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Namibia | Africa | High 0.73 | 5.95 | 5.13 | −0.83 | −13.9 | ▼ 4 | 15 · 3d | 19% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Brunei | Indo-Pacific | High 0.78 | 5.60 | 4.77 | −0.83 | −14.8 | ▼ 2 | 19 · 3d | 22% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Kosovo | Europe | High 0.73 | 4.70 | 3.88 | −0.83 | −17.6 | 0 | 13 | 17% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Angola | Africa | High 0.73 | 4.60 | 3.77 | −0.83 | −18.1 | ▲ 1 | 16 · 1d | 16% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Nicaragua | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.73 | 4.37 | 3.54 | −0.83 | −19.0 | ▼ 3 | 19 · 2d | 17% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Bhutan | South Asia | High 0.77 | 3.93 | 3.09 | −0.83 | −21.2 | ▼ 5 | 15 · 4d | 15% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Saint Vincent & Grenadines | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.77 | 3.76 | 2.93 | −0.83 | −22.0 | ▼ 5 | 17 · 5d | 13% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Nauru | Indo-Pacific | High 0.81 | 1.96 | 1.13 | −0.83 | −42.4 | ▼ 2 | 12 · 2d | 8% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Qatar | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.86 | 9.39 | 8.57 | −0.82 | −8.7 | 0 | 21 · 1d | 34% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception |
| Malta | Europe | High 0.82 | 8.89 | 8.07 | −0.82 | −9.2 | ▼ 1 | 23 · 4d | 30% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception |
| San Marino | Europe | High 0.81 | 5.03 | 4.21 | −0.82 | −16.3 | ▼ 1 | 19 · 2d | 16% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Iraq | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.71 | 4.69 | 3.88 | −0.82 | −17.4 | ▲ 2 | 21 · 1d | 18% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Morocco | Africa | High 0.85 | 9.36 | 8.54 | −0.81 | −8.7 | 0 | 17 · 3d | 34% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.9 · Inception |
| Oman | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.80 | 8.03 | 7.22 | −0.81 | −10.1 | ▼ 1 | 27 · 2d | 30% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Maldives | South Asia | High 0.75 | 4.62 | 3.81 | −0.81 | −17.6 | ▲ 1 | 23 | 18% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Gambia | Africa | High 0.71 | 3.32 | 2.50 | −0.81 | −24.5 | ▼ 1 | 18 · 3d | 11% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Congo | Africa | High 0.71 | 3.19 | 2.38 | −0.81 | −25.4 | ▼ 4 | 26 · 6d | 12% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Belize | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.73 | 4.03 | 3.24 | −0.80 | −19.7 | ▼ 3 | 16 · 1d | 14% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Iceland | Europe | High 0.84 | 9.63 | 8.84 | −0.79 | −8.2 | ▼ 1 | 28 · 3d | 34% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception |
| Guatemala | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.70 | 5.67 | 4.88 | −0.79 | −13.9 | 0 | 19 · 3d | 21% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Cameroon | Africa | High 0.68 | 4.39 | 3.60 | −0.79 | −18.0 | ▼ 2 | 16 · 1d | 15% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Mexico | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.88 | 10.85 | 10.07 | −0.78 | −7.2 | ▼ 2 | 24 · 3d | 38% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.2 · Nascent |
| Senegal | Africa | High 0.71 | 6.42 | 5.63 | −0.78 | −12.2 | ▼ 1 | 28 · 1d | 22% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Andorra | Europe | High 0.80 | 5.15 | 4.37 | −0.78 | −15.2 | 0 | 20 | 19% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Guyana | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.69 | 4.53 | 3.75 | −0.78 | −17.2 | ▲ 2 | 15 · 2d | 14% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Haiti | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.68 | 2.03 | 1.24 | −0.78 | −38.6 | ▼ 2 | 7 | 7% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Belarus | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.77 | 6.90 | 6.13 | −0.77 | −11.2 | ▲ 1 | 27 · 3d | 31% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Montenegro | Europe | High 0.72 | 6.35 | 5.58 | −0.77 | −12.2 | ▼ 1 | 15 · 6d | 24% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mongolia | Indo-Pacific | High 0.70 | 5.73 | 4.96 | −0.77 | −13.5 | ▼ 1 | 11 · 2d | 20% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mauritania | Africa | High 0.66 | 3.58 | 2.81 | −0.77 | −21.6 | ▼ 3 | 17 · 1d | 12% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Grenada | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.70 | 4.04 | 3.28 | −0.76 | −18.8 | ▼ 3 | 16 · 3d | 14% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Marshall Islands | Indo-Pacific | High 0.68 | 2.48 | 1.73 | −0.76 | −30.4 | ▼ 1 | 12 · 1d | 9% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Luxembourg | Europe | High 0.83 | 10.79 | 10.04 | −0.75 | −6.9 | ▼ 3 | 21 · 4d | 37% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.6 · Inception |
| Mauritius | Africa | High 0.73 | 8.08 | 7.33 | −0.75 | −9.3 | ▼ 1 | 16 · 2d | 29% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Albania | Europe | High 0.69 | 6.13 | 5.38 | −0.75 | −12.2 | ▲ 1 | 15 · 6d | 21% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Saint Kitts & Nevis | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.69 | 3.83 | 3.08 | −0.75 | −19.6 | ▼ 1 | 15 · 4d | 13% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Kiribati | Indo-Pacific | High 0.68 | 2.20 | 1.46 | −0.75 | −33.8 | 0 | 15 | 8% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Brazil | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.91 | 11.69 | 10.95 | −0.74 | −6.3 | ▼ 1 | 25 · 2d | 44% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 7.3 · Foundational |
| Cyprus | Europe | High 0.72 | 8.51 | 7.77 | −0.74 | −8.6 | ▲ 2 | 21 · 1d | 28% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception |
| Barbados | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.70 | 5.56 | 4.81 | −0.74 | −13.4 | ▲ 1 | 11 · 3d | 18% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Côte d'Ivoire | Africa | High 0.66 | 5.42 | 4.68 | −0.74 | −13.7 | 0 | 19 · 3d | 19% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| South Africa | Africa | High 0.82 | 10.77 | 10.05 | −0.73 | −6.8 | ▼ 1 | 20 · 1d | 39% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.1 · Foundational |
| North Macedonia | Europe | High 0.68 | 6.61 | 5.89 | −0.72 | −11.0 | ▲ 3 | 19 · 3d | 24% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Uzbekistan | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.65 | 5.92 | 5.20 | −0.72 | −12.2 | ▲ 3 | 20 · 4d | 22% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Fiji | Indo-Pacific | High 0.65 | 5.16 | 4.45 | −0.72 | −13.9 | ▲ 2 | 18 · 1d | 18% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Antigua & Barbuda | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.67 | 4.36 | 3.64 | −0.72 | −16.5 | ▲ 2 | 16 · 2d | 15% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Benin | Africa | High 0.62 | 4.09 | 3.37 | −0.72 | −17.6 | ▼ 2 | 16 · 1d | 14% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Mali | Africa | High 0.62 | 3.41 | 2.69 | −0.72 | −21.1 | 0 | 24 · 3d | 11% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| DR Congo | Africa | High 0.61 | 2.87 | 2.16 | −0.72 | −24.9 | 0 | 26 · 5d | 10% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Azerbaijan | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.68 | 6.79 | 6.09 | −0.71 | −10.4 | ▲ 2 | 14 · 2d | 28% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception |
| Armenia | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.67 | 6.65 | 5.94 | −0.71 | −10.7 | ▲ 3 | 16 · 3d | 26% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Togo | Africa | High 0.62 | 4.05 | 3.35 | −0.71 | −17.4 | ▼ 2 | 15 | 14% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Georgia | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.67 | 7.55 | 6.84 | −0.70 | −9.3 | 0 | 25 · 1d | 27% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception |
| Nigeria | Africa | High 0.66 | 7.43 | 6.73 | −0.70 | −9.4 | ▲ 2 | 22 · 1d | 26% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | Europe | High 0.64 | 5.80 | 5.10 | −0.70 | −12.1 | ▲ 1 | 9 · 4d | 21% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Liberia | Africa | High 0.61 | 2.93 | 2.23 | −0.70 | −24.0 | ▼ 1 | 20 · 4d | 10% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Tuvalu | Indo-Pacific | High 0.66 | 2.12 | 1.41 | −0.70 | −33.3 | 0 | 7 | 8% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Guinea-Bissau | Africa | High 0.61 | 2.07 | 1.37 | −0.70 | −33.9 | 0 | 15 · 1d | 7% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Kazakhstan | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.69 | 8.14 | 7.45 | −0.69 | −8.5 | 0 | 29 · 3d | 31% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.4 · Inception |
| Zambia | Africa | High 0.61 | 4.93 | 4.24 | −0.69 | −14.1 | ▲ 3 | 20 | 18% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Kyrgyzstan | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.61 | 4.77 | 4.07 | −0.69 | −14.6 | 0 | 19 · 1d | 17% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Zimbabwe | Africa | Medium 0.58 | 4.34 | 3.65 | −0.69 | −15.9 | ▲ 4 | 14 · 3d | 16% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Saint Lucia | Latin America and Caribbean | High 0.64 | 3.85 | 3.16 | −0.69 | −18.0 | ▲ 2 | 17 · 3d | 13% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Eswatini | Africa | High 0.61 | 3.71 | 3.03 | −0.69 | −18.5 | ▲ 3 | 9 | 13% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Somalia | Africa | High 0.60 | 1.62 | 0.93 | −0.69 | −42.7 | 0 | 3 | 7% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Saudi Arabia | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.81 | 11.19 | 10.51 | −0.68 | −6.1 | 0 | 20 · 4d | 41% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.8 · Nascent |
| Nepal | South Asia | Medium 0.59 | 4.96 | 4.29 | −0.68 | −13.6 | ▲ 3 | 14 · 2d | 19% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Lesotho | Africa | High 0.60 | 3.43 | 2.75 | −0.68 | −19.8 | 0 | 20 · 2d | 11% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sudan | Africa | Medium 0.56 | 2.61 | 1.93 | −0.68 | −25.9 | 0 | 16 · 1d | 10% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Malaysia | Indo-Pacific | High 0.78 | 11.48 | 10.82 | −0.67 | −5.8 | 0 | 19 · 3d | 41% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5 · Nascent |
| Bulgaria | Europe | High 0.72 | 8.95 | 8.28 | −0.67 | −7.5 | ▲ 1 | 20 · 2d | 35% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3 · Nascent |
| Bangladesh | South Asia | High 0.63 | 6.73 | 6.06 | −0.67 | −9.9 | ▲ 2 | 24 | 26% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Greece | Europe | High 0.75 | 10.61 | 9.95 | −0.66 | −6.2 | 0 | 21 | 39% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.2 · Nascent |
| Iran | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.72 | 8.17 | 7.51 | −0.66 | −8.1 | 0 | 16 · 2d | 37% | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 3.3 · Nascent |
| Moldova | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.60 | 6.34 | 5.69 | −0.66 | −10.3 | ▲ 2 | 17 · 5d | 24% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| North Korea | Indo-Pacific | High 0.62 | 4.26 | 3.60 | −0.66 | −15.5 | ▲ 3 | 19 · 1d | 23% | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception |
| Guinea | Africa | Medium 0.56 | 3.15 | 2.49 | −0.66 | −20.9 | 0 | 18 · 4d | 11% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hungary | Europe | High 0.74 | 10.51 | 9.86 | −0.65 | −6.2 | 0 | 28 · 2d | 39% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.4 · Nascent |
| Latvia | Europe | High 0.73 | 9.89 | 9.24 | −0.65 | −6.6 | 0 | 29 · 3d | 38% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2 · Inception |
| Madagascar | Africa | Medium 0.55 | 3.90 | 3.25 | −0.65 | −16.8 | ▲ 2 | 10 | 14% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sierra Leone | Africa | Medium 0.57 | 3.59 | 2.94 | −0.65 | −18.2 | ▲ 1 | 18 · 3d | 12% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Eritrea | Africa | Medium 0.56 | 2.01 | 1.36 | −0.65 | −32.4 | ▲ 1 | 9 · 1d | 7% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Serbia | Europe | High 0.66 | 8.97 | 8.33 | −0.64 | −7.1 | ▲ 1 | 22 · 2d | 34% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.5 · Nascent |
| Tanzania | Africa | Medium 0.57 | 5.82 | 5.18 | −0.64 | −11.0 | ▲ 4 | 18 · 1d | 21% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mozambique | Africa | Medium 0.55 | 4.12 | 3.48 | −0.64 | −15.5 | 0 | 12 | 15% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Palau | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.58 | 2.84 | 2.20 | −0.64 | −22.6 | ▲ 3 | 12 · 2d | 10% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Comoros | Africa | Medium 0.56 | 2.29 | 1.64 | −0.64 | −28.1 | ▼ 1 | 17 · 3d | 8% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Ireland | Europe | High 0.73 | 12.08 | 11.45 | −0.63 | −5.2 | 0 | 17 · 1d | 40% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.5 · Nascent |
| United Arab Emirates | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.82 | 11.94 | 11.31 | −0.63 | −5.3 | 0 | 22 · 1d | 46% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.5 · Nascent |
| Croatia | Europe | High 0.66 | 9.53 | 8.91 | −0.63 | −6.6 | ▲ 1 | 20 · 2d | 35% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.9 · Inception |
| Philippines | Indo-Pacific | High 0.63 | 8.83 | 8.21 | −0.63 | −7.1 | ▲ 1 | 14 · 4d | 31% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.9 · Inception |
| Belgium | Europe | High 0.84 | 13.46 | 12.85 | −0.62 | −4.6 | 0 | 25 · 3d | 49% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 7.7 · Foundational |
| New Zealand | Indo-Pacific | High 0.80 | 12.83 | 12.21 | −0.62 | −4.9 | ▼ 1 | 20 · 1d | 46% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.9 · Nascent |
| Syria | Gulf and Middle East | Medium 0.52 | 2.22 | 1.60 | −0.62 | −27.9 | 0 | 10 · 2d | 10% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Central African Rep. | Africa | Medium 0.53 | 1.66 | 1.05 | −0.62 | −37.0 | ▼ 1 | 7 | 5% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Denmark | Europe | High 0.82 | 13.94 | 13.34 | −0.61 | −4.3 | 0 | 18 · 2d | 49% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 8.9 · Foundational |
| Lithuania | Europe | High 0.72 | 10.75 | 10.14 | −0.61 | −5.7 | ▲ 3 | 16 · 1d | 41% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.3 · Nascent |
| Sri Lanka | South Asia | Medium 0.57 | 7.25 | 6.64 | −0.61 | −8.4 | ▲ 1 | 18 · 1d | 26% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception |
| Laos | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.54 | 3.70 | 3.10 | −0.61 | −16.4 | ▲ 7 | 14 | 15% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Thailand | Indo-Pacific | High 0.67 | 10.70 | 10.10 | −0.60 | −5.6 | ▲ 3 | 18 · 2d | 38% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.3 · Nascent |
| Slovenia | Europe | High 0.68 | 10.48 | 9.88 | −0.60 | −5.7 | ▲ 2 | 14 · 2d | 39% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3 · Inception |
| Slovakia | Europe | High 0.67 | 10.10 | 9.50 | −0.60 | −5.9 | 0 | 22 · 4d | 38% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.8 · Inception |
| Kenya | Africa | Medium 0.56 | 7.18 | 6.58 | −0.60 | −8.3 | ▲ 1 | 17 | 26% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.4 · Inception |
| Myanmar | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.50 | 3.89 | 3.29 | −0.60 | −15.4 | ▲ 5 | 13 · 2d | 15% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception |
| Burkina Faso | Africa | Medium 0.51 | 3.47 | 2.87 | −0.60 | −17.3 | ▲ 2 | 19 · 1d | 12% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Portugal | Europe | High 0.71 | 11.68 | 11.09 | −0.59 | −5.0 | ▲ 1 | 15 · 4d | 42% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5 · Nascent |
| Czechia | Europe | High 0.73 | 11.51 | 10.92 | −0.59 | −5.1 | 0 | 13 · 2d | 44% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 6.8 · Foundational |
| Türkiye | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.74 | 12.18 | 11.60 | −0.58 | −4.8 | 0 | 18 · 3d | 46% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational |
| Estonia | Europe | High 0.73 | 11.49 | 10.91 | −0.58 | −5.0 | 0 | 10 · 2d | 46% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.4 · Nascent |
| Indonesia | Indo-Pacific | High 0.62 | 9.97 | 9.39 | −0.58 | −5.8 | 0 | 18 | 35% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.2 · Nascent |
| Rwanda | Africa | Medium 0.51 | 5.95 | 5.37 | −0.58 | −9.7 | ▲ 3 | 12 · 2d | 22% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Holy See | Europe | High 0.82 | 1.85 | 1.27 | −0.58 | −31.4 | ▲ 2 | 6 · 1d | 4% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Romania | Europe | High 0.67 | 10.16 | 9.59 | −0.57 | −5.6 | 0 | 13 · 1d | 41% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.6 · Nascent |
| Ukraine | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.70 | 9.40 | 8.83 | −0.57 | −6.1 | 0 | 16 | 44% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.2 · Foundational |
| Liechtenstein | Europe | Medium 0.55 | 7.22 | 6.65 | −0.57 | −7.9 | ▲ 3 | 17 · 4d | 22% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Niger | Africa | Medium 0.48 | 3.07 | 2.50 | −0.57 | −18.5 | ▲ 3 | 15 · 3d | 11% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Austria | Europe | High 0.70 | 12.81 | 12.24 | −0.56 | −4.4 | ▲ 1 | 20 · 3d | 45% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 6.2 · Foundational |
| Uganda | Africa | Medium 0.49 | 5.53 | 4.97 | −0.56 | −10.2 | ▲ 6 | 15 · 3d | 19% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Chad | Africa | Medium 0.47 | 2.26 | 1.70 | −0.56 | −24.7 | ▲ 1 | 17 · 2d | 6% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Afghanistan | South Asia | Medium 0.50 | 1.46 | 0.90 | −0.56 | −38.4 | 0 | 7 | 6% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Singapore | Indo-Pacific | High 0.84 | 15.20 | 14.65 | −0.55 | −3.6 | 0 | 16 · 4d | 55% | Energy Infrastructure 8.5 · Foundational |
| Egypt | Gulf and Middle East | Medium 0.58 | 8.98 | 8.43 | −0.55 | −6.1 | ▲ 2 | 14 · 2d | 35% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.1 · Nascent |
| Pakistan | South Asia | Medium 0.56 | 7.96 | 7.41 | −0.55 | −6.9 | ▲ 2 | 18 · 2d | 33% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.7 · Nascent |
| Ethiopia | Africa | Medium 0.48 | 5.70 | 5.15 | −0.55 | −9.6 | ▲ 7 | 20 · 3d | 21% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception |
| Cambodia | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.48 | 4.93 | 4.38 | −0.55 | −11.1 | ▲ 7 | 15 · 2d | 18% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Tajikistan | Russia and Eurasia | Medium 0.48 | 4.01 | 3.45 | −0.55 | −13.8 | ▲ 5 | 10 | 15% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Malawi | Africa | Medium 0.47 | 3.76 | 3.21 | −0.55 | −14.7 | ▲ 6 | 12 · 2d | 13% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Norway | Europe | High 0.80 | 14.62 | 14.08 | −0.54 | −3.7 | 0 | 15 · 1d | 53% | Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional |
| Spain | Europe | High 0.78 | 13.78 | 13.24 | −0.54 | −3.9 | 0 | 14 | 52% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.7 · Transitional |
| Turkmenistan | Russia and Eurasia | Medium 0.46 | 3.55 | 3.01 | −0.54 | −15.1 | ▲ 6 | 12 · 5d | 14% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Tonga | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.47 | 3.21 | 2.68 | −0.53 | −16.4 | ▲ 1 | 13 · 3d | 11% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Italy | Europe | High 0.72 | 13.72 | 13.20 | −0.52 | −3.8 | 0 | 17 · 1d | 50% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.7 · Transitional |
| Poland | Europe | High 0.68 | 12.39 | 11.87 | −0.52 | −4.2 | 0 | 11 · 1d | 46% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 9.1 · Transitional |
| Vietnam | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.58 | 9.68 | 9.15 | −0.52 | −5.4 | 0 | 19 · 1d | 38% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.7 · Nascent |
| South Sudan | Africa | Medium 0.45 | 1.38 | 0.85 | −0.52 | −38.0 | 0 | 2 | 5% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Australia | Indo-Pacific | High 0.80 | 14.95 | 14.43 | −0.51 | −3.4 | 0 | 12 · 2d | 56% | Energy Infrastructure 12.2 · Established |
| Russia | Russia and Eurasia | High 0.75 | 12.30 | 11.79 | −0.51 | −4.1 | 0 | 11 | 53% | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9.6 · Transitional |
| Netherlands | Europe | High 0.83 | 15.50 | 14.99 | −0.50 | −3.2 | 0 | 7 · 1d | 58% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 12.8 · Established |
| Switzerland | Europe | High 0.76 | 14.73 | 14.23 | −0.50 | −3.4 | 0 | 10 | 54% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 10.6 · Transitional |
| Israel | Gulf and Middle East | High 0.80 | 14.46 | 13.96 | −0.50 | −3.4 | 0 | 17 · 1d | 57% | Energy Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional |
| Burundi | Africa | Medium 0.43 | 2.48 | 1.98 | −0.50 | −20.3 | ▲ 4 | 14 · 3d | 8% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Taiwan | Indo-Pacific | High 0.76 | 14.03 | 13.54 | −0.49 | −3.5 | 0 | 21 · 3d | 55% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 11.8 · Transitional |
| Samoa | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.45 | 3.48 | 2.99 | −0.49 | −14.1 | ▲ 6 | 13 · 3d | 12% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Timor-Leste | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.43 | 2.98 | 2.50 | −0.49 | −16.3 | ▲ 4 | 12 · 2d | 10% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Vanuatu | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.44 | 2.93 | 2.43 | −0.49 | −16.9 | ▲ 4 | 13 | 11% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Solomon Islands | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.43 | 2.91 | 2.42 | −0.49 | −16.7 | ▲ 4 | 11 · 2d | 10% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Canada | North America | High 0.78 | 15.06 | 14.58 | −0.48 | −3.2 | 0 | 12 · 2d | 58% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 · Established |
| India | South Asia | High 0.65 | 12.61 | 12.14 | −0.48 | −3.8 | 0 | 16 · 1d | 49% | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 10 · Transitional |
| Sweden | Europe | High 0.81 | 15.30 | 14.83 | −0.47 | −3.1 | 0 | 11 | 60% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 14 · Established |
| Finland | Europe | High 0.79 | 14.52 | 14.04 | −0.47 | −3.3 | 0 | 18 · 2d | 59% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 11.4 · Transitional |
| Micronesia | Indo-Pacific | Medium 0.41 | 2.33 | 1.86 | −0.47 | −20.2 | ▲ 1 | 12 | 9% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Yemen | Gulf and Middle East | Medium 0.39 | 1.62 | 1.15 | −0.47 | −29.2 | ▲ 2 | 6 | 7% | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Germany | Europe | High 0.76 | 16.36 | 15.92 | −0.45 | −2.7 | 0 | 11 | 60% | Energy Infrastructure 14.1 · Established |
| Japan | Indo-Pacific | High 0.79 | 16.26 | 15.83 | −0.43 | −2.7 | 0 | 10 | 62% | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 13.5 · Established |
| South Korea | Indo-Pacific | High 0.79 | 16.00 | 15.57 | −0.43 | −2.7 | 0 | 10 | 62% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 14.9 · Established |
| France | Europe | High 0.76 | 16.64 | 16.24 | −0.40 | −2.4 | 0 | 3 | 63% | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 15.4 · Advanced |
| Papua New Guinea | Indo-Pacific | Low 0.33 | 3.80 | 3.41 | −0.39 | −10.4 | ▲ 12 | 7 | 13% | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| China | China | High 0.67 | 15.64 | 15.30 | −0.35 | −2.2 | 0 | 11 | 64% | National Resilience & Crisis Management 14.1 · Established |
| United States | North America | High 0.78 | 18.03 | 17.69 | −0.34 | −1.9 | 0 | 9 · 5d | 70% | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.1 · Advanced |
| United Kingdom | Europe | Medium 0.58 | 16.45 | 16.14 | −0.31 | −1.9 | 0 | 8 | 63% | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.6 · Established |
Settings of this run
- Load
- 11 capability groups singled out, 73 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
- Singled out
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesHighSensing, Timing & NavigationHighEnergy InfrastructureHighWater, Sanitation & Waste InfrastructureHighCommunications & Digital InfrastructureHighFinancial InfrastructureHighCyber & Electromagnetic OperationsMediumGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationHighNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementHighFinancial Stability & Crisis ManagementHighIndustrial & Sectoral BaseHigh
- Buffers
- Energy InfrastructureCommunications & Digital InfrastructureNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementCyber & Electromagnetic OperationsConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.
- Exposure
- regional exposure (35%); urban share of population (35%); internet users as a share of population (30%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
- Likelihood
- 4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.