Liberia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years38.5rank 34 of 197 · 3 years: 40.1

Worst case−35.5%Energy supply shock · tail −28.8%

Opportunity · 10 years−5.0rank 116 of 197 · 3 years: −7.0

Best case+13Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 1 of 10

Shock absorbed13%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.10expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; remittances relative to gdp; share of population aged under 15; consumer price inflation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Liberia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.04

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.76

Chokepoint closure S05−0.73

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.70

Pandemic S14−0.69

Food and water shock S11−0.68

Global financial crisis S03−0.63

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.53

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48

AI diffusion shock S13−0.46

Disaster in the core S10−0.37

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.36

Mass displacement S08−0.28

Hybrid campaign S06−0.14

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.95	−1.04	−1.17	−0.52	▼ 7	26	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.63	−0.76	−0.89	−0.39	▼ 1	23	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.73	−0.73	−0.83	−0.37	▼ 2	18	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.61	−0.70	−0.78	−0.35	▼ 1	20	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.56	−0.69	−0.78	−0.35	▼ 1	16	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.63	−0.68	−0.81	−0.36	▼ 3	22	Resource Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.51	−0.63	−0.73	−0.32	▲ 3	15	Economic Output & Productivity 1.2 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.71	−0.53	−0.66	−0.29	▼ 2	13	Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.3 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.65	−0.48	−0.54	−0.25	▼ 1	14	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.42	−0.46	−0.51	−0.23	▲ 3	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.41	−0.37	−0.44	−0.19	▲ 2	15	Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.33	−0.36	−0.41	−0.18	▲ 5	10	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.38	−0.28	−0.33	−0.14	▲ 1	7	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.16	−0.14	−0.16	−0.07	▲ 2	4	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−1.47	−0.47	−0.63	−0.63	−1.42	−1.68	−1.62	−1.44
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.64	−0.31	−0.89	−0.80	−1.10	−1.34	−0.80	−0.92
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−1.24	−0.85	·	−0.56	−1.21	−0.48	−0.97	−1.24
Infrastructure collapse	−0.23	−1.15	−0.35	−0.41	−0.41	−1.03	−0.96	−0.94	−0.82
Pandemic	−0.23	−0.40	−0.28	−0.97	−0.85	−0.91	−0.85	−0.83	−0.83
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.79	−0.30	−0.96	−0.92	−0.98	−0.46	−0.79	−0.90
Global financial crisis	−0.13	−0.33	−0.26	−0.66	−0.66	−0.83	−1.11	−0.95	−0.76
Legitimacy crisis	−0.16	·	−0.68	−0.42	−0.99	−1.38	−1.13	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.23	−0.30	−0.33	−0.48	·	−0.98	·	−0.99	−0.99
AI diffusion shock	−0.19	−0.28	−0.22	−0.76	−0.57	−0.78	−0.66	−0.37	−0.33
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.76	−0.20	−0.57	−0.25	−0.64	−0.34	−0.25	−0.25
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.16	−0.22	−0.17	·	−0.50	−0.49	−0.50	−0.49	−0.74
Mass displacement	·	−0.28	−0.19	−0.58	−0.47	−0.65	−0.28	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.04	−0.25	−0.23	·	−0.28	−0.26	·	−0.10	−0.10

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Liberia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+13.2

Sovereign debt reset S19+8.2

Yield revolution S22+4.5

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+2.1

Energy abundance S16+0.9

Middle East settlement S21+0.9

Great-power détente S18−3.1

100-day pandemic defence S24−6.6

Digital state leapfrog S23−11.3

Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.7

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+13.2	14.7	1.4	17	56	Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+8.2	12.2	3.9	23	39	Financial Regulation & Integrity 4 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+4.5	8.7	4.2	10	59	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+2.1	9.4	7.3	11	79	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+0.9	7.8	6.9	9	129	Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+0.9	10.1	9.2	19	136	Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−3.1	4.8	7.9	15	126	Export Capability & Sophistication 2.3 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−6.6	5.2	11.8	11	181	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Loser	−11.3	10.9	22.1	11	159	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−20.7	2.2	22.9	6	106	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception