Scenarios 2027 / Results / S01

Load test · S01 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Geoeconomic confrontation

A Economic and tradeScenario record

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation−0.48median change in index, points
Hardest hit−1.10North Korea
Lose a domain band142of 197 nations
Worth of best practice+0.19mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.10Canada: −0.37North America mean: −0.23United StatesEurope 42France: −0.26United Kingdom: −0.55Germany: −0.29Netherlands: −0.40Sweden: −0.39Switzerland: −0.40Norway: −0.30Finland: −0.37Denmark: −0.47Spain: −0.32Italy: −0.33Belgium: −0.47Austria: −0.45Poland: −0.44Ireland: −0.60Portugal: −0.45Czechia: −0.50Estonia: −0.53Luxembourg: −0.53Lithuania: −0.53Greece: −0.47Hungary: −0.56Slovenia: −0.56Romania: −0.41Slovakia: −0.60Latvia: −0.54Iceland: −0.50Croatia: −0.52Serbia: −0.56Bulgaria: −0.55Malta: −0.64Cyprus: −0.63Liechtenstein: −0.89North Macedonia: −0.66Montenegro: −0.65Albania: −0.51Monaco: −1.00Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.63Andorra: −0.77San Marino: −0.74Kosovo: −0.64Holy See: −0.59Europe mean: −0.53MonacoChina 1China: −0.24China mean: −0.24Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.30South Korea: −0.46Singapore: −0.46Australia: −0.35Taiwan: −0.63New Zealand: −0.41Malaysia: −0.61Thailand: −0.64Indonesia: −0.41Vietnam: −0.79Philippines: −0.57Mongolia: −0.95Brunei: −0.73Fiji: −0.74Cambodia: −0.89North Korea: −1.10Myanmar: −0.67Papua New Guinea: −0.61Laos: −0.88Samoa: −0.61Tonga: −0.72Timor-Leste: −0.75Vanuatu: −0.53Solomon Islands: −0.85Palau: −0.60Marshall Islands: −0.66Micronesia: −0.70Kiribati: −0.63Tuvalu: −0.58Nauru: −0.66Indo-Pacific mean: −0.65MongoliaNorth KoreaSouth Asia 8India: −0.26Pakistan: −0.31Sri Lanka: −0.33Bangladesh: −0.29Nepal: −0.38Maldives: −0.58Bhutan: −0.42Afghanistan: −0.32South Asia mean: −0.36Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.37Türkiye: −0.24United Arab Emirates: −0.43Saudi Arabia: −0.31Qatar: −0.40Egypt: −0.22Iran: −0.45Oman: −0.62Kuwait: −0.53Jordan: −0.57Bahrain: −0.57Iraq: −0.61Lebanon: −0.67Palestine: −0.44Syria: −0.29Yemen: −0.34Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.44EgyptAfrica 53South Africa: −0.35Morocco: −0.35Mauritius: −0.46Tunisia: −0.38Nigeria: −0.34Kenya: −0.23Ghana: −0.35Algeria: −0.27Senegal: −0.37Botswana: −0.37Namibia: −0.56Rwanda: −0.41Tanzania: −0.26Ethiopia: −0.32Uganda: −0.31Côte d'Ivoire: −0.28Seychelles: −0.58Zambia: −0.50Cabo Verde: −0.46Angola: −0.59Cameroon: −0.28Zimbabwe: −0.37Mozambique: −0.53Benin: −0.32Togo: −0.25Gabon: −0.61Madagascar: −0.47Malawi: −0.34Eswatini: −0.45Sierra Leone: −0.60Mauritania: −0.58Burkina Faso: −0.32Lesotho: −0.65Mali: −0.32Gambia: −0.48Djibouti: −0.64Congo: −0.64Guinea: −0.61Niger: −0.32Libya: −0.67Liberia: −0.36DR Congo: −0.80São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.25Equatorial Guinea: −0.48Sudan: −0.36Burundi: −0.48Comoros: −0.28Chad: −0.38Guinea-Bissau: −0.26Eritrea: −0.62Central African Rep.: −0.37Somalia: −0.49South Sudan: −0.75Africa mean: −0.44KenyaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.30Mexico: −0.48Chile: −0.47Argentina: −0.26Colombia: −0.33Peru: −0.46Uruguay: −0.39Costa Rica: −0.54Panama: −0.48Dominican Republic: −0.56Ecuador: −0.52Trinidad & Tobago: −0.55Jamaica: −0.59Cuba: −0.42Paraguay: −0.40El Salvador: −0.61Guatemala: −0.43Barbados: −0.42Bahamas: −0.60Bolivia: −0.36Honduras: −0.64Venezuela: −0.76Guyana: −0.58Nicaragua: −0.76Antigua & Barbuda: −0.56Grenada: −0.66Suriname: −0.55Belize: −0.59Dominica: −0.43Saint Lucia: −0.58Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.61Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.50Haiti: −0.55Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.51Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.30Ukraine: −0.37Kazakhstan: −0.35Georgia: −0.47Belarus: −0.74Azerbaijan: −0.39Armenia: −0.65Moldova: −0.44Uzbekistan: −0.37Kyrgyzstan: −0.42Tajikistan: −0.43Turkmenistan: −0.57Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.46
Lowest: North Korea, Monaco, Mongolia. Highest: Kenya, Egypt, United States.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.10France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.26United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.55Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.29Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.30South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.46China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.24Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.40Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.39Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.46Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.37Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.35Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.40Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.30Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.37Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.37Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.63Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.47Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.32Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.33Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.47New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.41Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.45India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.26Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.44Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.30Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.24Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.60United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.43Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.30Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.45Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.50Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.53Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.61Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.31Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.48Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.53South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.35Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.53Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.64Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.47Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.47Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.56Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.56Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.41Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.60Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.41Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.54Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.79Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.50Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.52Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.37Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.40Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.35Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.26Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.33Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.22Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.56Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.55Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.64Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.57Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.46Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.39Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.63Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.45Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.35Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.46Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.62Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.31Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.54Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.38Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.47Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.53Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.57Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.34Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.57Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.33Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.89Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.23Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.48Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.35Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.27Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.74Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.56Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.39Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.52Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.29Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.55Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.65North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.66Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.37Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.65Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.44Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.59Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.51Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.37Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.56Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.42Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.41Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.37Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −1.00Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.26Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.63Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.40Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.95Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.32El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.61Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.43Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.73Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.42Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.31Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.28Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.58Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.60Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.74Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.77Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.36Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.64San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.74Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.38Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.50Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.89Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.42Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.46Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.64Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.61Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.67Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.58Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.59Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.76Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.58Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.28Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.76Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.56Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.37North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −1.10Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.53Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.32Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.25Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.66Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.55Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.59Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.43Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.61Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.42Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.47Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.67Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.43Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.58Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.61Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.61Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.34Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.50Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.44Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.45Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.88Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.60Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.58Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.57Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.61Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.32Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.65Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.32Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.48Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.72Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.64Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.64Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.61Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.32Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.67Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.75Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.36Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.53Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.85DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.80São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.25Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.60Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.48Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.36Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.48Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.66Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.70Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.28Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.38Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.29Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.63Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.58Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.26Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.55Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.62Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.66Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.59Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.37Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.34Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.49Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.32South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.75United StatesEgyptKenyaMonacoMongoliaNorth Korea
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Trade & Investment−0.95
Information & Influence−0.66
Financial Strength−0.65
Governance & Integrity−0.63
Production & Innovation−0.63
Critical Technology−0.44
Strategic Infrastructure−0.28
National Security−0.23
Human Capital0.00

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

−1.2−1.0−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20.0Change in capability index, pointsNorth KoreaNorth Korea, no response: −1.19North Korea, current plans: −1.10North Korea, best practice: −0.61MonacoMonaco, no response: −1.25Monaco, current plans: −1.00Monaco, best practice: −0.57MongoliaMongolia, no response: −1.21Mongolia, current plans: −0.95Mongolia, best practice: −0.54LiechtensteinLiechtenstein, no response: −1.27Liechtenstein, current plans: −0.89Liechtenstein, best practice: −0.57CambodiaCambodia, no response: −1.12Cambodia, current plans: −0.89Cambodia, best practice: −0.51LaosLaos, no response: −1.04Laos, current plans: −0.88Laos, best practice: −0.46Solomon IslandsSolomon Islands, no response: −0.95Solomon Islands, current plans: −0.85Solomon Islands, best practice: −0.43DR CongoDR Congo, no response: −0.91DR Congo, current plans: −0.80DR Congo, best practice: −0.40VietnamVietnam, no response: −1.32Vietnam, current plans: −0.79Vietnam, best practice: −0.58AndorraAndorra, no response: −0.89Andorra, current plans: −0.77Andorra, best practice: −0.40VenezuelaVenezuela, no response: −0.90Venezuela, current plans: −0.76Venezuela, best practice: −0.40NicaraguaNicaragua, no response: −0.93Nicaragua, current plans: −0.76Nicaragua, best practice: −0.42Timor-LesteTimor-Leste, no response: −0.87Timor-Leste, current plans: −0.75Timor-Leste, best practice: −0.39South SudanSouth Sudan, no response: −0.78South Sudan, current plans: −0.75South Sudan, best practice: −0.43BelarusBelarus, no response: −0.96Belarus, current plans: −0.74Belarus, best practice: −0.42FijiFiji, no response: −0.94Fiji, current plans: −0.74Fiji, best practice: −0.42San MarinoSan Marino, no response: −0.87San Marino, current plans: −0.74San Marino, best practice: −0.39BruneiBrunei, no response: −0.94Brunei, current plans: −0.73Brunei, best practice: −0.43TongaTonga, no response: −0.81Tonga, current plans: −0.72Tonga, best practice: −0.36MicronesiaMicronesia, no response: −0.77Micronesia, current plans: −0.70Micronesia, best practice: −0.35
No responseCurrent plansBest practice
Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Weakest point
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 1.004.263.16−1.10−25.9▼ 1922 · 2d10%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
MonacoEuropeHigh 1.005.914.92−1.00−16.8▼ 919 · 3d22%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
MongoliaIndo-PacificHigh 0.925.734.79−0.95−16.5▼ 715 · 3d22%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
LiechtensteinEuropeHigh 1.007.226.33−0.89−12.3▼ 622 · 6d31%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
CambodiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.864.934.03−0.89−18.1▼ 622 · 2d21%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
LaosIndo-PacificHigh 0.823.702.83−0.88−23.7▼ 721 · 4d16%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.802.912.06−0.85−29.2▼ 512 · 3d12%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
DR CongoAfricaHigh 0.722.872.07−0.80−27.8▼ 320 · 4d12%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
VietnamIndo-PacificHigh 0.939.688.88−0.79−8.2▼ 622 · 2d40%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.1 · Nascent
AndorraEuropeHigh 0.765.154.39−0.77−14.9▼ 415 · 1d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.644.553.80−0.76−16.7▼ 424 · 1d16%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.714.373.61−0.76−17.5▼ 418 · 2d18%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Timor-LesteIndo-PacificHigh 0.722.982.23−0.75−25.1▼ 616 · 3d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
South SudanAfricaHigh 0.821.380.62−0.75−54.8035%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
BelarusRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.676.906.16−0.74−10.8▼ 423 · 3d22%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.9 · Inception
FijiIndo-PacificHigh 0.735.164.42−0.74−14.4▼ 317 · 1d22%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
San MarinoEuropeHigh 0.745.034.29−0.74−14.7▼ 311 · 2d16%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
BruneiIndo-PacificHigh 0.725.604.87−0.73−13.0▼ 220 · 2d23%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
TongaIndo-PacificHigh 0.673.212.49−0.72−22.5▼ 611 · 3d12%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
MicronesiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.652.331.63−0.70−29.9▼ 4910%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
LebanonGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.584.663.99−0.67−14.3▼ 319 · 2d16%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
MyanmarIndo-PacificMedium 0.583.893.21−0.67−17.3▼ 616 · 4d15%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
LibyaAfricaMedium 0.573.012.34−0.67−22.3▼ 31911%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
North MacedoniaEuropeHigh 0.656.615.95−0.66−10.0▼ 115 · 1d25%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.634.043.38−0.66−16.4▼ 614 · 2d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.622.481.82−0.66−26.7▼ 46 · 1d11%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
NauruIndo-PacificHigh 0.631.961.31−0.66−33.5059%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.606.656.00−0.65−9.8▼ 115 · 3d22%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.4 · Inception
MontenegroEuropeHigh 0.616.355.70−0.65−10.2▼ 210 · 3d22%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
LesothoAfricaHigh 0.623.432.77−0.65−19.1▼ 217 · 2d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
ThailandIndo-PacificHigh 0.8010.7010.06−0.64−5.9▼ 219 · 4d43%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.6 · Nascent
MaltaEuropeHigh 0.738.898.24−0.64−7.2▼ 117 · 3d37%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.595.054.41−0.64−12.7▼ 115 · 4d21%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
KosovoEuropeMedium 0.584.704.06−0.64−13.7▼ 1817%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
DjiboutiAfricaMedium 0.593.202.57−0.64−19.9▼ 219 · 2d13%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
CongoAfricaMedium 0.593.192.54−0.64−20.2▼ 221 · 3d14%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
TaiwanIndo-PacificHigh 0.8714.0313.40−0.63−4.5▼ 220 · 4d49%Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.7 · Nascent
CyprusEuropeHigh 0.688.517.88−0.63−7.4018 · 1d34%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeMedium 0.585.805.17−0.63−10.8▼ 36 · 3d21%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
KiribatiIndo-PacificMedium 0.582.201.58−0.63−28.5▼ 1910%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
OmanGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.698.037.40−0.62−7.8▼ 119 · 1d35%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
EritreaAfricaMedium 0.542.011.39−0.62−30.6077%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
MalaysiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.8311.4810.87−0.61−5.3▼ 114 · 1d48%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 7.8 · Foundational
El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.575.685.07−0.61−10.7▼ 217 · 3d23%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
IraqGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.544.694.08−0.61−13.0▲ 118 · 1d17%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
GabonAfricaMedium 0.563.943.33−0.61−15.4▼ 31317%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.583.833.22−0.61−16.0▼ 216 · 2d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMedium 0.573.803.19−0.61−16.1▼ 313 · 1d18%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
SamoaIndo-PacificMedium 0.593.482.86−0.61−17.6▼ 116 · 3d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
GuineaAfricaMedium 0.553.152.54−0.61−19.3▼ 215 · 4d13%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
IrelandEuropeHigh 0.8612.0811.47−0.60−5.0▼ 117 · 2d50%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 6.4 · Foundational
SlovakiaEuropeHigh 0.7010.109.50−0.60−5.9▼ 118 · 3d40%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception
BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.585.164.56−0.60−11.7▼ 212 · 1d18%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Sierra LeoneAfricaMedium 0.563.592.99−0.60−16.8▼ 215 · 3d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
PalauIndo-PacificMedium 0.562.842.24−0.60−21.2▲ 110 · 2d12%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.576.245.66−0.59−9.4▼ 118 · 4d25%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AngolaAfricaMedium 0.544.604.02−0.59−12.701220%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.554.033.44−0.59−14.501215%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Holy SeeEuropeHigh 1.001.851.25−0.59−32.1▼ 27 · 1d13%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
SeychellesAfricaMedium 0.575.274.70−0.58−10.9▼ 120 · 2d20%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
MaldivesSouth AsiaMedium 0.544.624.04−0.58−12.6▲ 11717%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.554.533.95−0.58−12.7▼ 11219%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.553.853.28−0.58−15.0019 · 1d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
MauritaniaAfricaMedium 0.533.583.00−0.58−16.3011 · 2d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
TuvaluIndo-PacificMedium 0.572.121.53−0.58−27.6▼ 159%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
PhilippinesIndo-PacificHigh 0.638.838.26−0.57−6.5▲ 115 · 2d36%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 · Inception
JordanGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.587.506.93−0.57−7.6▼ 21630%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
BahrainGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.577.326.75−0.57−7.7▼ 21529%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.503.552.98−0.57−15.9▼ 112 · 5d14%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
HungaryEuropeHigh 0.6810.519.95−0.56−5.4018 · 1d41%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.6 · Nascent
SloveniaEuropeHigh 0.6710.489.92−0.56−5.409 · 2d40%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 · Inception
SerbiaEuropeMedium 0.598.978.41−0.56−6.2019 · 1d33%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.6 · Inception
Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.566.826.26−0.56−8.2▼ 116 · 3d28%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
NamibiaAfricaMedium 0.555.955.39−0.56−9.4▼ 412 · 2d24%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.534.363.79−0.56−13.0▼ 112 · 2d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
United KingdomEuropeHigh 1.0016.4515.90−0.55−3.4▼ 21261%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 12.8 · Established
BulgariaEuropeMedium 0.608.958.40−0.55−6.2015 · 2d35%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception
Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.556.696.15−0.55−8.2018 · 1d27%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.514.043.48−0.55−13.7012 · 1d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.492.031.47−0.55−27.2058%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
LatviaEuropeHigh 0.639.899.35−0.54−5.5025 · 2d39%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception
Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.577.767.22−0.54−6.9▼ 116 · 5d32%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception
EstoniaEuropeHigh 0.6611.4910.96−0.53−4.6013 · 2d43%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.4 · Inception
LuxembourgEuropeHigh 0.7010.7910.26−0.53−4.9▼ 115 · 3d46%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
LithuaniaEuropeHigh 0.6510.7510.22−0.53−4.9013 · 1d42%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception
KuwaitGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.567.516.97−0.53−7.1▼ 117 · 1d31%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
MozambiqueAfricaMedium 0.484.123.59−0.53−12.8▼ 11118%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
VanuatuIndo-PacificMedium 0.492.932.40−0.53−18.0▲ 11013%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
CroatiaEuropeMedium 0.599.539.01−0.52−5.5015 · 2d37%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.1 · Inception
EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.516.766.24−0.52−7.701727%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
AlbaniaEuropeMedium 0.486.135.63−0.51−8.3▼ 19 · 4d23%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
CzechiaEuropeHigh 0.6311.5111.01−0.50−4.4015 · 2d43%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 · Nascent
IcelandEuropeMedium 0.569.639.14−0.50−5.2▲ 118 · 2d37%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
ZambiaAfricaMedium 0.474.934.42−0.50−10.2▲ 41120%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.473.763.26−0.50−13.3▲ 212 · 2d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
SomaliaAfricaMedium 0.431.621.13−0.49−30.2▼ 126%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.6510.8510.38−0.48−4.4▼ 119 · 1d48%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4 · Nascent
PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.527.176.69−0.48−6.7▲ 18 · 1d33%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
GambiaAfricaMedium 0.443.322.83−0.48−14.6▲ 29 · 3d14%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Equatorial GuineaAfricaMedium 0.442.802.32−0.48−17.2▲ 416 · 1d13%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
BurundiAfricaMedium 0.432.482.01−0.48−19.2014 · 1d10%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
DenmarkEuropeHigh 0.7013.9413.48−0.47−3.3▲ 113 · 1d53%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 · Nascent
BelgiumEuropeHigh 0.6913.4613.00−0.47−3.5016 · 2d53%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.3 · Transitional
ChileLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.6010.6110.14−0.47−4.5▲ 110 · 2d44%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
GreeceEuropeMedium 0.5610.6110.14−0.47−4.4▲ 11240%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception
GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.477.557.07−0.47−6.2▼ 119 · 1d29%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
MadagascarAfricaMedium 0.423.903.43−0.47−12.1▲ 2717%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
South KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 0.7816.0015.54−0.46−2.908 · 1d58%Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.5 · Established
SingaporeIndo-PacificHigh 0.8615.2014.74−0.46−3.0011 · 4d62%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 12.2 · Established
PeruLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.518.618.15−0.46−5.3▼ 116 · 1d37%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
MauritiusAfricaMedium 0.508.087.62−0.46−5.7▼ 110 · 2d35%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Cabo VerdeAfricaMedium 0.444.724.26−0.46−9.8▲ 113 · 2d16%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AustriaEuropeHigh 0.6512.8112.36−0.45−3.5012 · 2d51%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 · Transitional
PortugalEuropeMedium 0.5811.6811.22−0.45−3.9010 · 4d45%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.9 · Nascent
IranGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.438.177.72−0.45−5.5▼ 112 · 1d27%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 · Nascent
EswatiniAfricaMedium 0.433.713.26−0.45−12.1▲ 5917%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
PolandEuropeMedium 0.5812.3911.96−0.44−3.5▼ 17 · 1d46%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent
MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.416.345.90−0.44−7.0▲ 111 · 3d24%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
PalestineGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.383.723.28−0.44−11.7▲ 65 · 1d14%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.6211.9411.51−0.43−3.6▲ 114 · 1d51%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.6 · Inception
GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.415.675.23−0.43−7.6▲ 412 · 1d25%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.384.013.58−0.43−10.8▲ 49 · 1d16%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.403.873.44−0.43−11.2▲ 512 · 1d14%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
CubaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.375.955.53−0.42−7.1▼ 111 · 1d20%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.415.565.14−0.42−7.6▲ 28 · 1d21%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.384.774.35−0.42−8.8▲ 2818%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
BhutanSouth AsiaMedium 0.383.933.51−0.42−10.7▲ 58 · 2d14%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
New ZealandIndo-PacificMedium 0.5812.8312.42−0.41−3.201450%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
RomaniaEuropeMedium 0.4710.169.75−0.41−4.0011 · 1d39%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 · Inception
IndonesiaIndo-PacificMedium 0.519.979.55−0.41−4.2▲ 11543%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.4 · Inception
RwandaAfricaMedium 0.395.955.54−0.41−6.9▼ 19 · 2d24%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
NetherlandsEuropeHigh 0.7015.5015.09−0.40−2.607 · 1d59%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.1 · Established
SwitzerlandEuropeHigh 0.7514.7314.33−0.40−2.70562%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.3 · Transitional
QatarGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.519.398.99−0.40−4.308 · 1d44%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.385.795.39−0.40−6.9▲ 28 · 2d24%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
SwedenEuropeHigh 0.6515.3014.92−0.39−2.50958%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 · Transitional
UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.428.548.15−0.39−4.6▲ 115 · 2d34%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.386.796.40−0.39−5.8▲ 2827%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
TunisiaAfricaMedium 0.387.717.34−0.38−4.9▲ 113 · 2d29%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.4 · Inception
NepalSouth AsiaLow 0.344.964.58−0.38−7.7▲ 57 · 1d18%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
ChadAfricaLow 0.342.261.88−0.38−16.9▲ 111 · 2d9%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
CanadaNorth AmericaHigh 0.6315.0614.69−0.37−2.5010 · 2d58%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.4 · Transitional
FinlandEuropeMedium 0.5814.5214.14−0.37−2.6014 · 1d55%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.7 · Foundational
IsraelGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.5014.4614.08−0.37−2.601047%Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional
UkraineRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.389.409.03−0.37−3.9▲ 21032%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception
SenegalAfricaMedium 0.366.426.05−0.37−5.7▲ 216 · 1d27%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
BotswanaAfricaMedium 0.376.085.70−0.37−6.1▲ 36 · 2d27%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaLow 0.345.925.55−0.37−6.2▲ 211 · 2d23%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
ZimbabweAfricaLow 0.324.343.96−0.37−8.6▲ 46 · 1d16%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Central African Rep.AfricaLow 0.321.661.29−0.37−22.3▲ 157%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanLow 0.325.114.75−0.36−7.0▲ 4820%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
LiberiaAfricaLow 0.332.932.57−0.36−12.4▲ 510 · 2d12%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
SudanAfricaLow 0.292.612.25−0.36−13.7▲ 469%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
AustraliaIndo-PacificMedium 0.5614.9514.60−0.35−2.309 · 1d56%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.4 · Nascent
South AfricaAfricaMedium 0.4510.7710.42−0.35−3.3▲ 21444%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.6 · Nascent
MoroccoAfricaMedium 0.419.369.01−0.35−3.7▲ 27 · 1d39%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.378.147.80−0.35−4.2▲ 111 · 1d34%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
GhanaAfricaMedium 0.356.986.63−0.35−5.008 · 1d30%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
NigeriaAfricaMedium 0.367.437.08−0.34−4.6▲ 311 · 1d32%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.4 · Inception
MalawiAfricaLow 0.293.763.43−0.34−9.0▲ 7715%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
YemenGulf and Middle EastLow 0.281.621.28−0.34−21.0▲ 115%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
ItalyEuropeMedium 0.4913.7213.39−0.33−2.401053%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.6 · Transitional
ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.379.118.78−0.33−3.601436%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
Sri LankaSouth AsiaLow 0.327.256.92−0.33−4.609 · 1d27%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.6 · Inception
SpainEuropeMedium 0.4613.7813.46−0.32−2.3▲ 1851%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational
EthiopiaAfricaLow 0.305.705.38−0.32−5.6▲ 314 · 2d25%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
BeninAfricaLow 0.294.093.77−0.32−7.8▲ 2816%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Burkina FasoAfricaLow 0.293.473.15−0.32−9.3▲ 510 · 1d14%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
MaliAfricaLow 0.283.413.09−0.32−9.5▲ 612 · 2d14%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
NigerAfricaLow 0.283.072.75−0.32−10.4▲ 410 · 2d13%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AfghanistanSouth AsiaLow 0.281.461.14−0.32−21.8▲ 154%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.4211.1910.88−0.31−2.8▲ 113 · 3d47%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception
PakistanSouth AsiaLow 0.317.967.64−0.31−4.0▲ 212 · 1d29%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.5 · Inception
UgandaAfricaLow 0.295.535.22−0.31−5.6▲ 68 · 2d23%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
JapanIndo-PacificMedium 0.5716.2615.96−0.30−1.8▲ 1663%Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 15.4 · Advanced
NorwayEuropeMedium 0.4914.6214.33−0.30−2.009 · 1d58%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent
RussiaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.3812.3012.00−0.30−2.4▲ 1645%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5 · Foundational
BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.4011.6911.39−0.30−2.6010 · 2d47%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.7 · Nascent
GermanyEuropeMedium 0.5716.3616.07−0.29−1.8▲ 1764%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 15.6 · Advanced
BangladeshSouth AsiaLow 0.286.736.44−0.29−4.3▲ 5926%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.6 · Inception
SyriaGulf and Middle EastLow 0.232.221.93−0.29−13.2▲ 366%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Côte d'IvoireAfricaLow 0.265.425.14−0.28−5.2▲ 56 · 1d24%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
CameroonAfricaLow 0.254.394.11−0.28−6.3▲ 89 · 1d18%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
ComorosAfricaLow 0.252.292.00−0.28−12.5▲ 25 · 1d8%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AlgeriaAfricaLow 0.266.966.69−0.27−3.8▲ 28 · 1d28%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
FranceEuropeMedium 0.4916.6416.38−0.26−1.50463%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.3 · Established
IndiaSouth AsiaMedium 0.3612.6112.35−0.26−2.10748%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.4 · Foundational
ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanLow 0.289.258.99−0.26−2.8▲ 111 · 1d34%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.9 · Inception
TanzaniaAfricaLow 0.245.825.57−0.26−4.4▲ 56 · 1d25%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Guinea-BissauAfricaLow 0.222.071.82−0.26−12.3▲ 48 · 1d9%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
TogoAfricaLow 0.234.053.80−0.25−6.1▲ 6816%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaLow 0.222.852.60−0.25−8.8▲ 1011 · 1d10%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
ChinaChinaMedium 0.4415.6415.41−0.24−1.50562%Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 12.8 · Established
TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastLow 0.3212.1811.94−0.24−2.0012 · 1d46%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.5 · Nascent
KenyaAfricaLow 0.247.186.94−0.23−3.3▲ 4631%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
EgyptGulf and Middle EastLow 0.248.988.76−0.22−2.40836%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 · Inception
United StatesNorth AmericaLow 0.2218.0317.93−0.10−0.604 · 2d68%Export Capability & Sophistication 16.8 · Advanced

Settings of this run

Load
11 capability groups singled out, 64 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out
Advanced Materials & ManufacturingHighSemiconductors & Advanced ComputingHighDiplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksHighRegulatory Governance & Strategic ControlsHighMonetary & Currency CapabilityHighIndustrial & Sectoral BaseHighTrade Facilitation & LogisticsHighTrade Policy & Market AccessHighExport Capability & SophisticationHighGlobal Value Chain PositionHighEconomic Leverage & DependenceHigh
Buffers
Economic Leverage & DependenceDiplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksTrade Policy & Market AccessSovereign Capital & External Financial PowerStructural Transformation & Complexity

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure
trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (40%); regional exposure (30%); share of exports going to china and the united states (30%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
Likelihood
22 per cent over three years and 40 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.
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