Mexico · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years7.5rank 168 of 197 · 3 years: 6.9

Worst case−7.2%Infrastructure collapse · tail −6.1%

Opportunity · 10 years+10.6rank 44 of 197 · 3 years: +11.4

Best case+29100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed43%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.37expected index points from best practice

Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkInternal Security & Orderweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of exports going to china and the united states; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; adult obesity rate; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Mexico’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.78

Pandemic S14−0.65

AI diffusion shock S13−0.56

Disaster in the core S10−0.55

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.48

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.48

Global financial crisis S03−0.47

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.39

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.32

Food and water shock S11−0.25

Energy supply shock S09−0.23

Mass displacement S08−0.22

Hybrid campaign S06−0.17

Chokepoint closure S05−0.16

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.88	−0.78	−1.27	−0.55	▼ 2	24	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.2 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	High 0.73	−0.65	−1.13	−0.50	0	21	Labour & Employment 8.5 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.66	−0.56	−0.90	−0.39	0	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.8 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.91	−0.55	−0.99	−0.43	▼ 4	20	Health System Capability 9.8 · Transitional
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.65	−0.48	−0.91	−0.40	▼ 1	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.61	−0.48	−0.87	−0.38	▼ 2	19	Internal Security & Order 8 · Foundational
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.61	−0.47	−0.91	−0.40	0	15	Labour & Employment 8.8 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.64	−0.39	−0.65	−0.28	▼ 3	12	Internal Security & Order 7.9 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.61	−0.32	−0.62	−0.27	0	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.1 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.36	−0.25	−0.47	−0.21	▼ 2	12	Internal Security & Order 8.4 · Foundational
Energy supply shock S09	Low 0.31	−0.23	−0.40	−0.18	0	14	Energy Technologies 5.9 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.45	−0.22	−0.40	−0.17	0	7	Internal Security & Order 8.3 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.24	−0.17	−0.27	−0.12	0	8	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.6 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	Low 0.23	−0.16	−0.27	−0.12	0	8	Maritime Power 7.9 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.97	−1.14	−0.41	−0.41	−0.41	−1.01	−0.95	−0.93	−0.81
Pandemic	−0.70	−0.35	−0.29	−0.84	−0.74	−0.79	−0.74	−0.72	−0.72
AI diffusion shock	−0.73	−0.31	−0.27	−0.81	−0.61	−0.84	−0.71	−0.39	−0.35
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−1.13	−0.34	−0.84	−0.38	−0.94	−0.50	−0.38	−0.38
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.61	−0.25	−0.23	·	−0.59	−0.57	−0.59	−0.58	−0.87
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.05	−0.40	−0.23	−0.56	−0.50	−0.69	−0.84	−0.50	−0.58
Global financial crisis	−0.24	−0.24	−0.21	−0.48	−0.48	−0.60	−0.79	−0.68	−0.54
Legitimacy crisis	−0.29	·	−0.57	−0.29	−0.67	−0.93	−0.77	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.61	−0.16	−0.21	−0.26	·	−0.53	·	−0.54	−0.54
Food and water shock	−0.03	−0.29	−0.13	−0.35	−0.33	−0.36	−0.17	−0.29	−0.33
Energy supply shock	−0.05	−0.32	−0.12	−0.13	−0.13	−0.30	−0.36	−0.34	−0.31
Mass displacement	·	−0.22	−0.17	−0.46	−0.37	−0.51	−0.22	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.12	−0.27	−0.29	·	−0.30	−0.28	·	−0.11	−0.11
Chokepoint closure	−0.02	−0.26	−0.22	·	−0.12	−0.25	−0.10	−0.20	−0.26

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Mexico is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+29.4

Emerging-market breakout S20+22.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+14.4

Digital state leapfrog S23+12.5

Great-power détente S18+10.9

Sovereign debt reset S19+8.8

Yield revolution S22+4.4

Superintelligence takeoff S15+1.8

Middle East settlement S21−7.9

Energy abundance S16−10.2

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+29.4	33.6	4.2	52	45	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+22.3	33.4	11.1	57	17	Technical & Vocational Skills 10.5 · Transitional
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+14.4	33.3	18.9	52	28	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Gainer	+12.5	24.3	11.8	45	17	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+10.9	40.9	30.1	66	55	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 12.5 · Established
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+8.8	10.6	1.8	52	37	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+4.4	15.6	11.2	54	60	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	+1.8	20.0	18.2	38	41	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	−7.9	7.7	15.6	52	165	Internal Security & Order 9 · Transitional
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Loser	−10.2	11.2	21.4	45	154	Energy Technologies 6.4 · Foundational