Scenarios 2027 / Results / S21

Capture test · S21 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Middle East regional settlement

B Geopolitical and security↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers80net position above +10
Mixed89between the two
Losers28net position below -10
Largest net gain+60Türkiye

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−40−200+20+40Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +11.7Canada: +1.5North America mean: +6.6Europe 42France: +48.1United Kingdom: +35.6Germany: +45.6Netherlands: +38.2Sweden: +43.4Switzerland: +36.1Norway: +10.0Finland: +40.8Denmark: +25.4Spain: +39.6Italy: +37.2Belgium: +38.1Austria: +33.0Poland: +37.3Ireland: +31.5Portugal: +33.7Czechia: +32.4Estonia: +20.5Luxembourg: +29.1Lithuania: +26.1Greece: +27.3Hungary: +30.5Slovenia: +26.7Romania: +24.2Slovakia: +29.2Latvia: +26.8Iceland: +28.2Croatia: +25.4Serbia: +23.9Bulgaria: +20.2Malta: +19.0Cyprus: +18.8Liechtenstein: +8.8North Macedonia: +19.9Montenegro: +19.2Albania: +9.0Monaco: +9.5Bosnia & Herzegovina: +16.2Andorra: +7.1San Marino: +6.8Kosovo: +14.4Holy See: +0.3Europe mean: +26.0FranceChina 1China: +43.0China mean: +43.0Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +48.8South Korea: +43.9Singapore: +36.8Australia: +10.0Taiwan: +29.3New Zealand: +29.2Malaysia: −0.5Thailand: +29.2Indonesia: −5.9Vietnam: +21.5Philippines: +22.7Mongolia: +5.7Brunei: −22.5Fiji: +12.4Cambodia: +16.7North Korea: +10.5Myanmar: −27.6Papua New Guinea: −33.5Laos: +15.0Samoa: +1.5Tonga: −0.8Timor-Leste: −35.4Vanuatu: +8.6Solomon Islands: +8.2Palau: −2.5Marshall Islands: −4.9Micronesia: +7.7Kiribati: +6.3Tuvalu: +3.7Nauru: +6.3Indo-Pacific mean: +8.0JapanSouth Asia 8India: +30.1Pakistan: +18.2Sri Lanka: +24.9Bangladesh: +21.5Nepal: +15.7Maldives: +7.1Bhutan: +12.6Afghanistan: −7.3South Asia mean: +15.3Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +39.6Türkiye: +59.6United Arab Emirates: +22.7Saudi Arabia: +18.7Qatar: +6.9Egypt: +29.8Iran: +13.1Oman: +0.9Kuwait: −5.0Jordan: +41.0Bahrain: −4.3Iraq: −27.4Lebanon: +19.5Palestine: +11.3Syria: +5.6Yemen: +3.2Gulf and Middle East mean: +14.7TürkiyeAfrica 53South Africa: +21.5Morocco: +25.1Mauritius: +16.6Tunisia: +10.4Nigeria: −23.8Kenya: +21.7Ghana: −16.9Algeria: −22.7Senegal: +9.6Botswana: +11.2Namibia: +10.6Rwanda: +14.0Tanzania: +3.8Ethiopia: +16.4Uganda: +11.6Côte d'Ivoire: +7.1Seychelles: +9.8Zambia: +12.7Cabo Verde: +2.4Angola: −33.4Cameroon: −34.7Zimbabwe: +7.4Mozambique: −37.6Benin: +9.1Togo: +1.1Gabon: −37.1Madagascar: +6.0Malawi: +5.9Eswatini: +5.6Sierra Leone: +5.5Mauritania: +7.1Burkina Faso: +6.6Lesotho: +4.9Mali: +6.7Gambia: −0.5Djibouti: +7.8Congo: −38.8Guinea: +1.3Niger: −1.2Libya: −42.5Liberia: +0.9DR Congo: −0.7São Tomé & Príncipe: −7.1Equatorial Guinea: −41.7Sudan: −10.0Burundi: +2.8Comoros: +1.1Chad: −44.9Guinea-Bissau: +0.5Eritrea: +1.4Central African Rep.: −0.2Somalia: −1.1South Sudan: −49.9Africa mean: −3.0South SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −9.9Mexico: −7.9Chile: +17.8Argentina: −1.4Colombia: −20.7Peru: −8.0Uruguay: +13.8Costa Rica: +9.7Panama: +8.3Dominican Republic: +11.5Ecuador: −33.0Trinidad & Tobago: −29.6Jamaica: 0.0Cuba: +0.5Paraguay: +6.9El Salvador: +7.6Guatemala: +6.5Barbados: −2.7Bahamas: −2.9Bolivia: −31.1Honduras: +5.4Venezuela: −45.6Guyana: −38.1Nicaragua: +3.5Antigua & Barbuda: −5.9Grenada: +1.8Suriname: −8.9Belize: −1.7Dominica: +1.3Saint Lucia: −7.6Saint Kitts & Nevis: +1.7Saint Vincent & Grenadines: +1.8Haiti: −3.8Latin America and Caribbean mean: −4.9VenezuelaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia: −28.0Ukraine: +4.1Kazakhstan: −30.7Georgia: +6.6Belarus: +2.3Azerbaijan: −36.1Armenia: +1.8Moldova: −1.9Uzbekistan: −4.1Kyrgyzstan: −12.0Tajikistan: −3.4Turkmenistan: −51.4Russia and Eurasia mean: −12.7Turkmenistan
Lowest: Turkmenistan, South Sudan, Venezuela. Highest: France, Japan, Türkiye.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−40−200+20+40Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 84, net position +11.70France (Europe): readiness 82.3, net position +48.10United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 82, net position +35.60Germany (Europe): readiness 79.1, net position +45.60Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 82.3, net position +48.80South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 76.8, net position +43.90China (China): readiness 75.7, net position +43.00Netherlands (Europe): readiness 75.3, net position +38.20Sweden (Europe): readiness 77.3, net position +43.40Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 63.7, net position +36.80Canada (North America): readiness 76, net position +1.50Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 71.8, net position +10.00Switzerland (Europe): readiness 60.8, net position +36.10Norway (Europe): readiness 69.5, net position +10.00Finland (Europe): readiness 73.6, net position +40.80Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 58.2, net position +39.60Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 49.8, net position +29.30Denmark (Europe): readiness 63.6, net position +25.40Spain (Europe): readiness 71.8, net position +39.60Italy (Europe): readiness 68.9, net position +37.20Belgium (Europe): readiness 70.7, net position +38.10New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 62.5, net position +29.20Austria (Europe): readiness 58.4, net position +33.00India (South Asia): readiness 57.9, net position +30.10Poland (Europe): readiness 62, net position +37.30Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 58.9, net position −28.00Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 65, net position +59.60Ireland (Europe): readiness 56, net position +31.50United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 66.7, net position +22.70Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 58.6, net position −9.90Portugal (Europe): readiness 60.5, net position +33.70Czechia (Europe): readiness 56.1, net position +32.40Estonia (Europe): readiness 54.1, net position +20.50Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 59, net position −0.50Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 56.3, net position +18.70Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 51.7, net position −7.90Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 49.7, net position +29.10South Africa (Africa): readiness 54.5, net position +21.50Lithuania (Europe): readiness 53.9, net position +26.10Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 56.2, net position +29.20Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 54.8, net position +17.80Greece (Europe): readiness 56.6, net position +27.30Hungary (Europe): readiness 53.5, net position +30.50Slovenia (Europe): readiness 50.8, net position +26.70Romania (Europe): readiness 52.4, net position +24.20Slovakia (Europe): readiness 50.2, net position +29.20Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 52.5, net position −5.90Latvia (Europe): readiness 50, net position +26.80Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 53.1, net position +21.50Iceland (Europe): readiness 48.7, net position +28.20Croatia (Europe): readiness 49, net position +25.40Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 47.8, net position +4.10Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 49.7, net position +6.90Morocco (Africa): readiness 53.8, net position +25.10Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 51.2, net position −1.40Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 50.8, net position −20.70Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 53.2, net position +29.80Serbia (Europe): readiness 45, net position +23.90Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 46.5, net position +20.20Malta (Europe): readiness 41.8, net position +19.00Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 46.3, net position +22.70Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 46.1, net position −8.00Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 44, net position +13.80Cyprus (Europe): readiness 41, net position +18.80Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 43.6, net position +13.10Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 47.2, net position −30.70Mauritius (Africa): readiness 36.9, net position +16.60Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 45.1, net position +0.90Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 41, net position +18.20Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.3, net position +9.70Tunisia (Africa): readiness 40.1, net position +10.40Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 41.1, net position +6.60Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 41.4, net position −5.00Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 44.1, net position +41.00Nigeria (Africa): readiness 40.5, net position −23.80Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 38.6, net position −4.30Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 40, net position +24.90Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 23.1, net position +8.80Kenya (Africa): readiness 40.8, net position +21.70Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 41.5, net position +8.30Ghana (Africa): readiness 41, net position −16.90Algeria (Africa): readiness 39.8, net position −22.70Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34.3, net position +2.30Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 36.5, net position +11.50Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 41.7, net position −36.10Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.2, net position −33.00Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 37.2, net position +21.50Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 34.2, net position −29.60Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 32.6, net position +1.80North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 35.6, net position +19.90Senegal (Africa): readiness 37.2, net position +9.60Montenegro (Europe): readiness 34.6, net position +19.20Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 32.8, net position −1.90Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.5, net position 0.00Albania (Europe): readiness 34.9, net position +9.00Botswana (Africa): readiness 28.4, net position +11.20Namibia (Africa): readiness 32.1, net position +10.60Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.9, net position +0.50Rwanda (Africa): readiness 31.3, net position +14.00Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 33.3, net position −4.10Monaco (Europe): readiness 25.3, net position +9.50Tanzania (Africa): readiness 34.5, net position +3.80Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 29.7, net position +16.20Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.9, net position +6.90Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 31.8, net position +5.70Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 33.7, net position +16.40El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.7, net position +7.60Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.1, net position +6.50Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 30.4, net position −22.50Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.6, net position −2.70Uganda (Africa): readiness 31.8, net position +11.60Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 33.4, net position +7.10Seychelles (Africa): readiness 26.5, net position +9.80Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27, net position −2.90Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 29.8, net position +12.40Andorra (Europe): readiness 20.1, net position +7.10Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.6, net position −31.10Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.7, net position +5.40San Marino (Europe): readiness 19.2, net position +6.80Nepal (South Asia): readiness 26.4, net position +15.70Zambia (Africa): readiness 30.4, net position +12.70Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 30.7, net position +16.70Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 28.9, net position −12.00Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 26.1, net position +2.40Kosovo (Europe): readiness 26.9, net position +14.40Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 27.9, net position −27.40Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 24.7, net position +19.50Maldives (South Asia): readiness 25.2, net position +7.10Angola (Africa): readiness 29, net position −33.40Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.2, net position −45.60Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24, net position −38.10Cameroon (Africa): readiness 26.7, net position −34.70Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.4, net position +3.50Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.5, net position −5.90Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 24.9, net position +7.40North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21, net position +10.50Mozambique (Africa): readiness 26.9, net position −37.60Benin (Africa): readiness 22.5, net position +9.10Togo (Africa): readiness 23.8, net position +1.10Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.6, net position +1.80Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23, net position −8.90Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22, net position −1.70Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.3, net position −3.40Gabon (Africa): readiness 25.4, net position −37.10Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 21.8, net position +12.60Madagascar (Africa): readiness 21.8, net position +6.00Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22.3, net position −27.60Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.1, net position +1.30Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.8, net position −7.60Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.2, net position +1.70Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22.9, net position −33.50Malawi (Africa): readiness 21.8, net position +5.90Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.6, net position +1.80Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 16.8, net position +11.30Eswatini (Africa): readiness 20.6, net position +5.60Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 26.1, net position +15.00Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 20.8, net position +5.50Mauritania (Africa): readiness 21.9, net position +7.10Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 20.2, net position −51.40Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21.3, net position +1.50Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 19.3, net position +6.60Lesotho (Africa): readiness 19.7, net position +4.90Mali (Africa): readiness 19.6, net position +6.70Gambia (Africa): readiness 18.1, net position −0.50Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.2, net position −0.80Djibouti (Africa): readiness 21.5, net position +7.80Congo (Africa): readiness 21, net position −38.80Guinea (Africa): readiness 20.1, net position +1.30Niger (Africa): readiness 18.6, net position −1.20Libya (Africa): readiness 17, net position −42.50Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.7, net position −35.40Liberia (Africa): readiness 18.8, net position +0.90Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.6, net position +8.60Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.9, net position +8.20DR Congo (Africa): readiness 18.4, net position −0.70São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 16, net position −7.10Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.6, net position −2.50Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 19.1, net position −41.70Sudan (Africa): readiness 15.5, net position −10.00Burundi (Africa): readiness 15.4, net position +2.80Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.8, net position −4.90Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.3, net position +7.70Comoros (Africa): readiness 13.7, net position +1.10Chad (Africa): readiness 12.4, net position −44.90Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 14.1, net position +5.60Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.9, net position +6.30Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.4, net position +3.70Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 12.8, net position +0.50Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.9, net position −3.80Eritrea (Africa): readiness 12.6, net position +1.40Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14, net position +6.30Holy See (Europe): readiness 10.9, net position +0.30Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 10, net position −0.20Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 9.5, net position +3.20Somalia (Africa): readiness 9.7, net position −1.10Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 9.5, net position −7.30South Sudan (Africa): readiness 9.1, net position −49.90FranceJapanTürkiyeVenezuelaTurkmenistanSouth Sudan
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: oil exporters elsewhere that lose the risk premium, and suppliers of arms.

Russia and Eurasia 12−12.7
Latin America and Caribbean 33−4.9
Africa 53−3.0
North America 2+6.6
Indo-Pacific 30+8.0
Gulf and Middle East 16+14.7
South Asia 8+15.3
Europe 42+26.0
China 1+43.0

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+59.663.94.46559Internal Security & Order 12 · Established
2JapanIndo-PacificGainer+48.849.10.48285Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 16 · Advanced
3FranceEuropeGainer+48.148.60.48282Internal Security & Order 15.7 · Advanced
4GermanyEuropeGainer+45.646.00.47984Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced
5South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+43.945.81.97781Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · Established
6SwedenEuropeGainer+43.445.82.47781Alliances & Security Cooperation 15 · Advanced
7ChinaChinaGainer+43.043.60.67676Internal Security & Order 13.7 · Established
8JordanGulf and Middle EastGainer+41.043.92.94443Energy Infrastructure 8 · Foundational
9FinlandEuropeGainer+40.843.52.77478Alliances & Security Cooperation 14 · Established
11SpainEuropeGainer+39.642.63.07270Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.8 · Established
10IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+39.645.76.15869Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 · Transitional
12NetherlandsEuropeGainer+38.241.02.77582Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established
13BelgiumEuropeGainer+38.142.14.07173Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established
14PolandEuropeGainer+37.338.20.96264Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional
15ItalyEuropeGainer+37.239.82.66968Energy Infrastructure 13 · Established
16SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+36.838.21.46489Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
17SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+36.136.50.46185Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 · Transitional
18United KingdomEuropeGainer+35.636.00.58282Transport Infrastructure 16 · Advanced
19PortugalEuropeGainer+33.735.92.26165Energy Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
20AustriaEuropeGainer+33.033.70.75874Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 · Transitional
21CzechiaEuropeGainer+32.433.30.95663Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 · Transitional
22IrelandEuropeGainer+31.532.20.75673Energy Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional
23HungaryEuropeGainer+30.531.61.05459Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.8 · Transitional
24IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+30.135.95.85861Internal Security & Order 10 · Transitional
25EgyptGulf and Middle EastGainer+29.839.49.75345Internal Security & Order 10 · Transitional
26TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+29.329.90.65076Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational
29SlovakiaEuropeGainer+29.231.82.65058Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.8 · Foundational
28ThailandIndo-PacificGainer+29.230.21.05660Energy Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
27New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+29.229.90.76372Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
30LuxembourgEuropeGainer+29.129.80.75072Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
31IcelandEuropeGainer+28.229.21.04961Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational
32GreeceEuropeGainer+27.333.86.55757Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional
33LatviaEuropeGainer+26.829.42.65059Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational
34SloveniaEuropeGainer+26.730.53.85162Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational
35LithuaniaEuropeGainer+26.131.75.65463Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional
37CroatiaEuropeGainer+25.426.51.14955Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational
36DenmarkEuropeGainer+25.427.11.76479Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional
38MoroccoAfricaGainer+25.128.73.65452Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional
39Sri LankaSouth AsiaGainer+24.926.41.54040Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.3 · Foundational
40RomaniaEuropeGainer+24.225.31.15255Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.3 · Transitional
41SerbiaEuropeGainer+23.925.21.34550Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational
43PhilippinesIndo-PacificGainer+22.724.01.24650Internal Security & Order 8.3 · Foundational
42United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastGainer+22.740.017.36769Energy Infrastructure 12.4 · Established
44KenyaAfricaGainer+21.726.14.44141Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
47BangladeshSouth AsiaGainer+21.523.01.63737Internal Security & Order 6.7 · Foundational
46VietnamIndo-PacificGainer+21.522.71.25353Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
45South AfricaAfricaGainer+21.527.86.35558Internal Security & Order 10 · Transitional
48EstoniaEuropeGainer+20.523.12.65468Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
49BulgariaEuropeGainer+20.227.57.34751Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 · Foundational
50North MacedoniaEuropeGainer+19.921.41.53642Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
51LebanonGulf and Middle EastGainer+19.523.44.02521Energy Infrastructure 4.3 · Nascent
52MontenegroEuropeGainer+19.220.81.63538Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent
53MaltaEuropeGainer+19.025.16.14259Alliances & Security Cooperation 6.5 · Foundational
54CyprusEuropeGainer+18.824.65.84154Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational
55Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastGainer+18.739.420.65663Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
56PakistanSouth AsiaGainer+18.224.76.54135Internal Security & Order 7 · Foundational
57ChileLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+17.821.53.75563Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 · Transitional
58CambodiaIndo-PacificGainer+16.718.41.73132Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.8 · Nascent
59MauritiusAfricaGainer+16.619.93.33756Alliances & Security Cooperation 5.5 · Nascent
60EthiopiaAfricaGainer+16.421.65.23430Internal Security & Order 6 · Foundational
61Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeGainer+16.217.81.73034Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5 · Nascent
62NepalSouth AsiaGainer+15.717.41.82629Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.5 · Nascent
63LaosIndo-PacificGainer+15.017.01.92623Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5 · Nascent
64KosovoEuropeGainer+14.416.21.82730Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.8 · Nascent
65RwandaAfricaGainer+14.018.54.53140Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
66UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+13.818.44.64454Alliances & Security Cooperation 7.5 · Foundational
67IranGulf and Middle EastGainer+13.130.517.44437Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 · Foundational
68ZambiaAfricaGainer+12.718.05.33029Energy Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
69BhutanSouth AsiaGainer+12.614.41.72231Transport Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
70FijiIndo-PacificGainer+12.417.95.53033Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
71United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+11.715.13.48485Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced
72UgandaAfricaGainer+11.620.48.73234Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent
73Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+11.517.25.73743Alliances & Security Cooperation 6.5 · Foundational
74PalestineGulf and Middle EastGainer+11.315.13.91723Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
75BotswanaAfricaGainer+11.215.34.12845Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
76NamibiaAfricaGainer+10.617.36.73240Alliances & Security Cooperation 5.5 · Nascent
77North KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+10.512.62.12115Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3 · Nascent
78TunisiaAfricaGainer+10.420.09.64043Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
80NorwayEuropeGainer+10.020.810.87079Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established
79AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+10.021.511.57278Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established
81SeychellesAfricaMixed+9.814.34.52740Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
82Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+9.714.75.13549Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 · Nascent
83SenegalAfricaMixed+9.620.410.73739Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
84MonacoEuropeMixed+9.510.91.42546Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 · Nascent
85BeninAfricaMixed+9.114.45.42328Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
86AlbaniaEuropeMixed+9.013.94.93540Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
87LiechtensteinEuropeMixed+8.89.91.12356Alliances & Security Cooperation 2 · Inception
88VanuatuIndo-PacificMixed+8.610.52.01821Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
89PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.317.49.14248Alliances & Security Cooperation 6.5 · Foundational
90Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificMixed+8.210.22.01721Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
91DjiboutiAfricaMixed+7.813.86.02220Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception
92MicronesiaIndo-PacificMixed+7.79.82.11616Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
93El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.614.16.53435Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
94ZimbabweAfricaMixed+7.413.35.92522Alliances & Security Cooperation 4.5 · Nascent
98MauritaniaAfricaMixed+7.112.95.82222Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
97MaldivesSouth AsiaMixed+7.116.79.52531Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
96AndorraEuropeMixed+7.18.61.52040Alliances & Security Cooperation 2 · Inception
95Côte d'IvoireAfricaMixed+7.115.78.63335Energy Infrastructure 6 · Foundational
100ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.913.06.13239Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.8 · Nascent
99QatarGulf and Middle EastMixed+6.929.823.05058Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
101San MarinoEuropeMixed+6.88.21.51941Alliances & Security Cooperation 2 · Inception
102MaliAfricaMixed+6.712.65.92021Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
104Burkina FasoAfricaMixed+6.612.35.81923Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
103GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaMixed+6.617.210.64147Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational
105GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.513.06.53235Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
107NauruIndo-PacificMixed+6.38.42.11416Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
106KiribatiIndo-PacificMixed+6.38.32.11418Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
108MadagascarAfricaMixed+6.011.85.72223Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
109MalawiAfricaMixed+5.911.85.92222Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
110MongoliaIndo-PacificMixed+5.715.49.63236Energy Infrastructure 5.5 · Nascent
112SyriaGulf and Middle EastMixed+5.610.24.51410Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2.5 · Inception
111EswatiniAfricaMixed+5.611.15.52127Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent
113Sierra LeoneAfricaMixed+5.511.25.82123Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
114HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+5.412.57.03030Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent
115LesothoAfricaMixed+4.910.65.72024Transport Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
116UkraineRussia and EurasiaMixed+4.115.411.34844Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8.5 · Foundational
117TanzaniaAfricaMixed+3.816.713.03535Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
118TuvaluIndo-PacificMixed+3.75.72.11317Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception
119NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.510.67.22529Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.5 · Nascent
120YemenGulf and Middle EastMixed+3.27.84.6108Energy Infrastructure 1.6 · Inception
121BurundiAfricaMixed+2.89.16.31516Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
122Cabo VerdeAfricaMixed+2.414.111.72633Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
123BelarusRussia and EurasiaMixed+2.314.512.23439Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.3 · Nascent
126Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.89.17.32227Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
125GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.89.17.22228Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
124ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaMixed+1.813.711.93341Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent
127Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.78.97.22128Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
129SamoaIndo-PacificMixed+1.512.811.22125Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
128CanadaNorth AmericaMixed+1.513.712.27680Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
130EritreaAfricaMixed+1.48.16.71311Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
132GuineaAfricaMixed+1.311.910.62020Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
131DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.38.57.22028Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 · Nascent
134ComorosAfricaMixed+1.17.46.31415Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
133TogoAfricaMixed+1.114.112.92426Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
136LiberiaAfricaMixed+0.910.19.21918Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception
135OmanGulf and Middle EastMixed+0.929.328.44551Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational
138Guinea-BissauAfricaMixed+0.56.96.41314Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
137CubaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+0.57.77.33027Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.5 · Nascent
139Holy SeeEuropeMixed+0.34.74.41112Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0 · Inception
140JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed0.013.613.63440Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
141Central African Rep.AfricaMixed−0.26.46.71011Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
143GambiaAfricaMixed−0.59.810.31822Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
142MalaysiaIndo-PacificMixed−0.517.718.25965Energy Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
144DR CongoAfricaMixed−0.78.89.51816Internal Security & Order 3.3 · Nascent
145TongaIndo-PacificMixed−0.810.911.71822Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
146SomaliaAfricaMixed−1.15.76.9109Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception
147NigerAfricaMixed−1.27.99.11919Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
148ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−1.46.17.55145Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 · Transitional
149BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−1.78.29.92228Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent
150MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMixed−1.915.417.33337Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.8 · Nascent
151PalauIndo-PacificMixed−2.57.510.11819Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
152BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−2.79.512.22839Alliances & Security Cooperation 4 · Nascent
153BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−2.911.314.32737Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
154TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMixed−3.411.414.72426Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4 · Nascent
155HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−3.85.08.81212Internal Security & Order 2 · Inception
156UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaMixed−4.18.512.63337Alliances & Security Cooperation 6 · Foundational
157BahrainGulf and Middle EastMixed−4.323.127.53950Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
158Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificMixed−4.97.612.51817Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
159KuwaitGulf and Middle EastMixed−5.026.931.94145Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
161Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−5.99.915.72430Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
160IndonesiaIndo-PacificMixed−5.917.723.65355Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
162São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaMixed−7.18.715.81621Alliances & Security Cooperation 2.5 · Inception
163AfghanistanSouth AsiaMixed−7.36.313.61010Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 1.5 · Inception
164Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.68.716.42127Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
165MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.97.715.65261Internal Security & Order 9 · Transitional
166PeruLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−8.07.915.84651Internal Security & Order 8.7 · Foundational
167SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−8.94.012.82327Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4 · Nascent
168BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−9.910.019.95960Internal Security & Order 10.7 · Transitional
169SudanAfricaMixed−10.07.517.41613Internal Security & Order 2.7 · Inception
170KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−12.010.822.82930Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.3 · Nascent
171GhanaAfricaLoser−16.911.928.84139Energy Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational
172ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−20.78.629.35151Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
173BruneiIndo-PacificLoser−22.59.131.63040Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.5 · Nascent
174AlgeriaAfricaLoser−22.713.536.34037Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7 · Foundational
175NigeriaAfricaLoser−23.811.735.54138Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
176IraqGulf and Middle EastLoser−27.418.145.52824Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 · Nascent
177MyanmarIndo-PacificLoser−27.66.734.32219Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4 · Nascent
178RussiaRussia and EurasiaLoser−28.010.038.05955Internal Security & Order 10.3 · Transitional
179Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−29.64.133.73444Alliances & Security Cooperation 6 · Foundational
180KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−30.75.736.34748Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9 · Transitional
181BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−31.13.634.73031Alliances & Security Cooperation 5.5 · Nascent
182EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−33.04.737.73937Internal Security & Order 7.3 · Foundational
183AngolaAfricaLoser−33.48.441.82927Energy Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
184Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificLoser−33.56.940.42323Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
185CameroonAfricaLoser−34.77.842.42726Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
186Timor-LesteIndo-PacificLoser−35.45.340.71823Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
187AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaLoser−36.15.041.14241Energy Infrastructure 7.8 · Foundational
188GabonAfricaLoser−37.16.143.22525Energy Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent
189MozambiqueAfricaLoser−37.66.444.02724Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 · Nascent
190GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−38.14.142.12430Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
191CongoAfricaLoser−38.87.146.02120Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
192Equatorial GuineaAfricaLoser−41.74.646.31919Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent
193LibyaAfricaLoser−42.55.848.31716Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 · Nascent
194ChadAfricaLoser−44.94.249.11215Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
195VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−45.63.348.92719Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 · Nascent
196South SudanAfricaLoser−49.93.153.098Trade Facilitation & Logistics 1.5 · Inception
197TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−51.43.454.92022Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 · Nascent

Settings of this run

Required
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksAlliances & Security CooperationEnergy InfrastructureTransport InfrastructureTrade Facilitation & LogisticsGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationInternal Security & Order

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceStructural Transformation & ComplexitySovereign Capital & External Financial PowerGovernment Effectiveness & Public Administration
Gain exposure
regional exposure (60%); share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production (30%); land borders with states in conflict or collapse (10%).
Loss exposure
Oil exporters elsewhere that lose the risk premium, and suppliers of arms: regional exposure (50%); oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter (50%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
1 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results