Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Russia and Eurasia · KGZ

Kyrgyzstan

Baseline index 4.77Rank 123 of 197NascentRussia and EurasiaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years21.1rank 89 of 197 · 3 years: 21.2
Worst case−14.6%Infrastructure collapse · tail −14.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−12.8rank 172 of 197 · 3 years: −12.6
Best case+6Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed20%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.89expected index points from best practice
Breadth7 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; consumer price inflation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Kyrgyzstan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.69
Energy supply shock S09−0.68
AI diffusion shock S13−0.68
Pandemic S14−0.58
Global financial crisis S03−0.57
Chokepoint closure S05−0.56
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.54
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.43
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.42
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.42
Disaster in the core S10−0.42
Food and water shock S11−0.37
Hybrid campaign S06−0.32
Mass displacement S08−0.22
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.61−0.69−0.83−0.38019Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.65−0.68−0.83−0.37022Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.66−0.68−0.85−0.38014Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.48−0.58−0.72−0.32▲ 214Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.49−0.57−0.73−0.32▲ 212Investment Attraction & Projection 2.5 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.59−0.56−0.68−0.30▼ 216Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.48−0.54−0.68−0.30▼ 114Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.7 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.55−0.43−0.55−0.24▼ 113Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.38−0.42−0.51−0.23▲ 28Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.55−0.42−0.51−0.23▲ 111Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.53−0.42−0.57−0.25014Transport Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.37−0.37−0.48−0.21▼ 113Resource Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.37−0.32−0.40−0.18▼ 17Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Low 0.34−0.22−0.30−0.13▲ 19Labour & Employment 5.8 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.65−1.06−0.34−0.38−0.38−0.94−0.88−0.86−0.76
Energy supply shock−0.10−0.96−0.32−0.40−0.40−0.90−1.07−1.03−0.91
AI diffusion shock−0.68−0.39−0.31−1.04−0.78−1.08−0.91−0.50−0.45
Pandemic−0.54−0.32−0.23−0.77−0.67−0.72−0.67−0.66−0.66
Global financial crisis−0.28−0.29−0.23−0.58−0.58−0.73−0.97−0.83−0.67
Chokepoint closure−0.07−0.94−0.65·−0.42−0.90−0.36−0.72−0.93
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.45−0.23−0.63−0.56−0.77−0.94−0.56−0.64
Legitimacy crisis−0.30·−0.58−0.32−0.75−1.04−0.86··
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.43−0.23−0.19·−0.54−0.52−0.54−0.53−0.80
Single-supplier cut-off−0.61−0.24−0.27−0.37·−0.76·−0.77−0.77
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.87−0.23−0.64−0.29−0.72−0.39−0.29−0.29
Food and water shock−0.04−0.42−0.17−0.52−0.49−0.53−0.25−0.42−0.48
Hybrid campaign−0.24−0.55−0.50·−0.61−0.57·−0.23−0.23
Mass displacement·−0.22−0.15−0.46−0.37−0.51−0.22−0.03·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Kyrgyzstan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+5.8
Sovereign debt reset S19+4.7
Great-power détente S18−5.2
Energy abundance S16−8.3
100-day pandemic defence S24−10.8
Middle East settlement S21−12.0
Digital state leapfrog S23−15.9
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−17.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−24.3
Yield revolution S22−24.3
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+5.812.97.125114Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+4.78.03.33383Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−5.28.513.722138Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed−8.310.919.115150Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Loser−10.88.819.618192Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−12.010.822.829170Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−15.911.227.118177Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−17.211.128.320161Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−24.36.030.313132Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−24.35.529.818194Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception