Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years38.8rank 32 of 197 · 3 years: 39.5
Worst case−30.4%Energy supply shock · tail −27.8%
Opportunity · 10 years−10.1rank 158 of 197 · 3 years: −9.2
Best case+5Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed14%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.19expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Tonga’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.97
Chokepoint closure S05−0.88
Global financial crisis S03−0.82
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.72
Pandemic S14−0.71
AI diffusion shock S13−0.70
Food and water shock S11−0.65
Disaster in the core S10−0.62
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.53
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.47
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.45
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.36
Hybrid campaign S06−0.29
Mass displacement S08−0.17
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.91 | −0.97 | −1.08 | −0.50 | ▼ 5 | 22 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.94 | −0.88 | −0.99 | −0.47 | ▼ 8 | 14 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.68 | −0.82 | −0.96 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Economic Output & Productivity 0.3 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.67 | −0.72 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▼ 6 | 11 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.60 | −0.71 | −0.83 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.68 | −0.70 | −0.80 | −0.36 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.61 | −0.65 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.75 | −0.62 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 1 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.47 | −0.53 | −0.59 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.40 | −0.47 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 5 | 9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.6 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.63 | −0.45 | −0.50 | −0.23 | 0 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.36 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 3 | 6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.33 | −0.29 | −0.33 | −0.14 | ▼ 3 | 6 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Labour & Employment 4.1 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.26 | −0.42 | −0.61 | −0.61 | −1.37 | −1.62 | −1.47 | −1.37 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.40 | −0.86 | · | −0.72 | −1.55 | −0.62 | −1.20 | −1.57 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.14 | −0.43 | −0.30 | −0.87 | −0.87 | −1.08 | −1.45 | −1.24 | −0.99 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.15 | −0.44 | −0.31 | · | −1.03 | −0.99 | −1.03 | −1.01 | −1.51 |
| Pandemic | −0.15 | −0.42 | −0.27 | −1.03 | −0.90 | −0.96 | −0.90 | −0.88 | −0.88 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.15 | −0.44 | −0.31 | −1.17 | −0.88 | −1.21 | −1.03 | −0.57 | −0.50 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.70 | −0.26 | −0.92 | −0.88 | −0.94 | −0.44 | −0.75 | −0.86 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.28 | −0.30 | −0.96 | −0.43 | −1.08 | −0.58 | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.15 | −0.87 | −0.25 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.78 | −0.73 | −0.71 | −0.62 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.55 | −0.50 | −0.68 | −0.83 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.15 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.47 | · | −0.95 | · | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.11 | · | −0.46 | −0.29 | −0.67 | −0.94 | −0.77 | · | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.09 | −0.52 | −0.44 | · | −0.58 | −0.55 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.02 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Tonga is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+5.0
100-day pandemic defence S24+2.5
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.9
Middle East settlement S21−0.8
Digital state leapfrog S23−6.0
Energy abundance S16−10.2
Yield revolution S22−10.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−23.6
Great-power détente S18−23.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15−26.6
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +5.0 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 16 | 120 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +2.5 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 11 | 124 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 24 | 127 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −0.8 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 18 | 145 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −6.0 | 7.8 | 13.8 | 12 | 114 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −10.2 | 8.7 | 18.9 | 9 | 155 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −10.5 | 6.1 | 16.7 | 10 | 147 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −23.6 | 7.7 | 31.3 | 13 | 179 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −23.9 | 6.6 | 30.5 | 12 | 188 | Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −26.6 | 5.0 | 31.6 | 8 | 146 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |