Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; consumer price inflation; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Türkiye’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.74 | −0.58 | −1.08 | −0.47 | 0 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.67 | −0.52 | −0.92 | −0.40 | 0 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.9 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.72 | −0.51 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Energy Technologies 8.8 · Foundational |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.58 | −0.49 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.5 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.83 | −0.48 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 14 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 10.1 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | High 0.98 | −0.45 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 14 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7.5 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.61 | −0.41 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7.5 · Foundational |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.71 | −0.40 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.40 | −0.36 | −0.57 | −0.25 | 0 | 14 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.3 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.39 | −0.35 | −0.59 | −0.26 | 0 | 15 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.3 · Foundational |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.49 | −0.32 | −0.65 | −0.28 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Population Health 11.3 · Transitional |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.47 | −0.25 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Internal Security & Order 11.3 · Transitional |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.32 | −0.24 | −0.45 | −0.20 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.5 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.40 | −0.21 | −0.40 | −0.18 | 0 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.4 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.72 | −0.84 | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −0.60 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.68 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.76 | −0.57 | −0.78 | −0.66 | −0.36 | −0.32 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.12 | −0.71 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.66 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.67 |
| Pandemic | −0.52 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.63 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.06 | −0.78 | −0.72 | · | −0.35 | −0.75 | −0.30 | −0.60 | −0.77 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.45 | −0.38 | −0.92 | −0.75 | −1.04 | −0.44 | −0.05 | · |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.29 | · | −0.65 | −0.29 | −0.69 | −0.95 | −0.78 | · | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.82 | −0.27 | −0.61 | −0.27 | −0.68 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.27 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.19 | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.51 | −0.62 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.44 | −0.58 | −0.50 | −0.40 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.36 | −0.18 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.36 | −0.42 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.19 | −0.41 | −0.48 | · | −0.45 | −0.43 | · | −0.17 | −0.17 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.13 | · | −0.30 | −0.29 | −0.30 | −0.29 | −0.44 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.17 | · | −0.35 | · | −0.36 | −0.36 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Türkiye is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +59.6 | 63.9 | 4.4 | 65 | 1 | Internal Security & Order 12 · Established |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +41.1 | 46.4 | 5.3 | 57 | 21 | Energy Technologies 10 · Transitional |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +30.2 | 33.5 | 3.3 | 57 | 41 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +17.0 | 25.4 | 8.4 | 63 | 36 | Technical & Vocational Skills 12 · Established |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +14.9 | 32.8 | 17.9 | 57 | 25 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Gainer | +14.2 | 16.1 | 1.9 | 58 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +13.7 | 20.5 | 6.8 | 66 | 49 | Export Capability & Sophistication 12.7 · Established |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 26.6 | 19.7 | 44 | 34 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +4.4 | 19.9 | 15.5 | 51 | 54 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8.7 · Foundational |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 48 | 123 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational |