Tanzania · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years16.6rank 109 of 197 · 3 years: 17.2

Worst case−12.8%Energy supply shock · tail −11.8%

Opportunity · 10 years+3.8rank 71 of 197 · 3 years: +2.4

Best case+24Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 4 of 10

Shock absorbed25%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.80expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Single-supplier cut-off. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Tanzania’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.74

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.68

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.64

Food and water shock S11−0.63

Pandemic S14−0.54

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.50

Disaster in the core S10−0.49

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48

Global financial crisis S03−0.48

Chokepoint closure S05−0.47

Mass displacement S08−0.41

AI diffusion shock S13−0.41

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.26

Hybrid campaign S06−0.19

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.76	−0.74	−0.97	−0.43	▲ 1	15	Energy Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.65	−0.68	−0.94	−0.41	▼ 4	16	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.57	−0.64	−0.80	−0.36	▲ 4	18	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.67	−0.63	−0.89	−0.39	▼ 6	14	Population Health 4.9 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.46	−0.54	−0.70	−0.31	▲ 3	14	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.3 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.67	−0.50	−0.68	−0.30	▼ 2	8	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.9 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.62	−0.49	−0.68	−0.30	▼ 2	16	Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.65	−0.48	−0.63	−0.28	▼ 1	14	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.44	−0.48	−0.66	−0.29	▲ 3	10	Labour & Employment 5 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.52	−0.47	−0.62	−0.27	▲ 2	11	Maritime Power 2.6 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.65	−0.41	−0.57	−0.25	▼ 6	11	Health System Capability 5.6 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.38	−0.41	−0.51	−0.23	▲ 6	10	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.24	−0.26	−0.34	−0.15	▲ 5	6	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.21	−0.19	−0.24	−0.10	▲ 2	8	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.17	−1.04	−0.39	−0.43	−0.43	−0.97	−1.15	−1.11	−0.99
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.07	−0.56	−0.32	−0.78	−0.71	−0.97	−1.18	−0.71	−0.81
Infrastructure collapse	−0.74	−0.95	−0.34	−0.34	−0.34	−0.84	−0.79	−0.77	−0.68
Food and water shock	−0.07	−0.72	−0.32	−0.88	−0.84	−0.90	−0.42	−0.72	−0.82
Pandemic	−0.55	−0.29	−0.24	−0.70	−0.61	−0.66	−0.61	−0.60	−0.60
Legitimacy crisis	−0.35	·	−0.73	−0.37	−0.85	−1.19	−0.97	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−1.01	−0.30	−0.74	−0.34	−0.84	−0.45	−0.34	−0.34
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.80	−0.26	−0.33	−0.41	·	−0.82	·	−0.84	−0.84
Global financial crisis	−0.24	−0.24	−0.22	−0.48	−0.48	−0.60	−0.80	−0.69	−0.55
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−0.77	−0.65	·	−0.35	−0.74	−0.30	−0.59	−0.76
Mass displacement	·	−0.42	−0.31	−0.85	−0.70	−0.96	−0.41	−0.05	·
AI diffusion shock	−0.48	−0.23	−0.20	−0.60	−0.45	−0.62	−0.53	−0.29	−0.26
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.32	−0.14	−0.12	·	−0.32	−0.31	−0.32	−0.31	−0.47
Hybrid campaign	−0.14	−0.30	−0.33	·	−0.34	−0.32	·	−0.13	−0.13

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Tanzania is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+23.9

Sovereign debt reset S19+15.5

Yield revolution S22+14.4

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+10.6

Middle East settlement S21+3.8

Great-power détente S18+1.9

Digital state leapfrog S23+0.6

100-day pandemic defence S24−0.4

Energy abundance S16−2.0

Superintelligence takeoff S15−10.2

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+23.9	28.4	4.5	34	8	Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+15.5	18.6	3.0	37	12	Health System Capability 7 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+14.4	17.7	3.3	26	18	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+10.6	18.0	7.4	25	38	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+3.8	16.7	13.0	35	117	Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+1.9	8.0	6.2	31	99	Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+0.6	19.4	18.8	21	73	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−0.4	9.5	9.9	24	149	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	−2.0	13.9	16.0	21	140	Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−10.2	5.5	15.8	15	66	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception