Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years72.8rank 4 of 197 · 3 years: 69.4
Worst case−65.5%Food and water shock · tail −59.8%
Opportunity · 10 years−17.1rank 190 of 197 · 3 years: −19.8
Best case+6Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed6%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.04expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; no coastline; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Afghanistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Food and water shock S11−0.96
Energy supply shock S09−0.90
Chokepoint closure S05−0.76
Disaster in the core S10−0.66
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.56
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.56
AI diffusion shock S13−0.56
Pandemic S14−0.54
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.53
Global financial crisis S03−0.41
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.32
Mass displacement S08−0.30
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.25
Hybrid campaign S06−0.24
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.92 | −0.96 | −1.03 | −0.52 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.91 | −0.90 | −0.94 | −0.49 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.84 | −0.76 | −0.80 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 7 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.70 | −0.66 | −0.74 | −0.33 | 0 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 0.4 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.74 | −0.56 | −0.58 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.50 | −0.56 | −0.59 | −0.27 | 0 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.54 | −0.56 | −0.59 | −0.28 | 0 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.43 | −0.54 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.41 | −0.53 | −0.56 | −0.26 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Low 0.31 | −0.41 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 4 | 7 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.28 | −0.32 | −0.33 | −0.15 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.38 | −0.30 | −0.33 | −0.15 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Low 0.34 | −0.25 | −0.26 | −0.12 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.27 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.11 | 0 | 5 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −1.17 | −0.40 | −1.44 | −1.24 | −1.45 | −0.72 | −1.03 | −1.16 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.02 | −1.38 | −0.41 | −0.64 | −0.64 | −1.33 | −1.44 | −1.22 | −1.07 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −1.43 | −0.61 | · | −0.69 | −1.39 | −0.59 | −0.99 | −1.15 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −1.39 | −0.33 | −1.04 | −0.47 | −1.14 | −0.62 | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.02 | · | −0.68 | −0.52 | −1.14 | −1.39 | −1.30 | · | · |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.02 | −0.98 | −0.30 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.87 | −0.73 | −0.74 | −0.70 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.02 | −0.38 | −0.28 | −0.91 | −0.77 | −0.88 | −0.87 | −0.49 | −0.44 |
| Pandemic | −0.02 | −0.33 | −0.23 | −0.80 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.66 | −0.68 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.64 | −0.58 | −0.78 | −0.85 | −0.56 | −0.66 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −0.56 | −0.74 | −0.58 | −0.48 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.16 | · | −0.46 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.68 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.62 | −0.51 | −0.70 | −0.30 | −0.04 | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.26 | · | −0.50 | · | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.02 | −0.45 | −0.35 | · | −0.50 | −0.47 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Afghanistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+6.0
Yield revolution S22+0.4
Sovereign debt reset S19−2.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−2.6
100-day pandemic defence S24−6.5
Middle East settlement S21−7.3
Energy abundance S16−16.1
Digital state leapfrog S23−23.9
Great-power détente S18−25.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−52.6
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.0 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 111 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0.7 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +0.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 5 | 94 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −2.2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 9 | 166 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 1.3 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −2.6 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 6 | 97 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −6.5 | 2.0 | 8.5 | 6 | 180 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −7.3 | 6.3 | 13.6 | 10 | 163 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 1.5 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −16.1 | 4.9 | 21.0 | 5 | 160 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −23.9 | 3.5 | 27.3 | 4 | 195 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −25.6 | 1.2 | 26.8 | 5 | 189 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0.7 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −52.6 | 1.4 | 54.0 | 3 | 197 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |