Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years29.2rank 59 of 197 · 3 years: 28.7
Worst case−24.5%Energy supply shock · tail −22.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−0.1rank 84 of 197 · 3 years: −2.1
Best case+15Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 3 of 10
Shock absorbed18%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.09expected index points from best practice
Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Benin’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−1.00
Food and water shock S11−0.95
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.82
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.72
Chokepoint closure S05−0.71
Global financial crisis S03−0.64
Pandemic S14−0.61
Mass displacement S08−0.56
AI diffusion shock S13−0.51
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.48
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41
Disaster in the core S10−0.33
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.32
Hybrid campaign S06−0.25
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.92 | −1.00 | −1.17 | −0.52 | ▼ 8 | 25 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.91 | −0.95 | −1.20 | −0.53 | ▼ 13 | 28 | Resource Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.74 | −0.82 | −1.06 | −0.46 | 0 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.62 | −0.72 | −0.83 | −0.37 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.70 | −0.71 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 7 | 14 | Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.55 | −0.64 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.7 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.50 | −0.61 | −0.73 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | High 0.83 | −0.56 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 13 | 15 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.47 | −0.51 | −0.60 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.63 | −0.48 | −0.62 | −0.28 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.9 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.41 | −0.47 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.40 | −0.33 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.29 | −0.32 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.27 | −0.25 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.08 | −1.42 | −0.53 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −1.33 | −1.58 | −1.52 | −1.35 |
| Food and water shock | −0.08 | −1.08 | −0.49 | −1.32 | −1.26 | −1.35 | −0.63 | −1.08 | −1.23 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.08 | −0.69 | −0.39 | −0.95 | −0.86 | −1.18 | −1.43 | −0.86 | −0.98 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.45 | −1.13 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −1.01 | −0.94 | −0.92 | −0.81 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.17 | −0.97 | · | −0.53 | −1.13 | −0.45 | −0.90 | −1.16 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.23 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.66 | −0.66 | −0.82 | −1.09 | −0.94 | −0.75 |
| Pandemic | −0.40 | −0.34 | −0.28 | −0.83 | −0.72 | −0.78 | −0.72 | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.57 | −0.43 | −1.16 | −0.95 | −1.31 | −0.55 | −0.07 | · |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.41 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.80 | −0.60 | −0.82 | −0.70 | −0.38 | −0.34 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.25 | · | −0.71 | −0.36 | −0.84 | −1.17 | −0.96 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.41 | −0.24 | −0.31 | −0.38 | · | −0.77 | · | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.69 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.16 | · | −0.42 | −0.40 | −0.42 | −0.41 | −0.62 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.14 | −0.41 | −0.45 | · | −0.46 | −0.43 | · | −0.17 | −0.17 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Benin is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+15.4
Sovereign debt reset S19+14.1
Energy abundance S16+10.5
Yield revolution S22+9.6
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+9.4
Middle East settlement S21+9.1
Great-power détente S18−0.9
100-day pandemic defence S24−4.8
Digital state leapfrog S23−6.0
Superintelligence takeoff S15−19.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +15.4 | 18.5 | 3.1 | 22 | 43 | Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Gainer | +14.1 | 17.4 | 3.3 | 31 | 17 | Health System Capability 5.7 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +10.5 | 11.6 | 1.1 | 13 | 88 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +9.6 | 13.4 | 3.8 | 14 | 32 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +9.4 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 15 | 46 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +9.1 | 14.4 | 5.4 | 23 | 85 | Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 21 | 116 | Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −4.8 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 14 | 166 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −6.0 | 14.2 | 20.2 | 15 | 113 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −19.0 | 3.8 | 22.8 | 10 | 93 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |