Mongolia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years22.4rank 80 of 197 · 3 years: 23.8

Worst case−16.5%Geoeconomic confrontation · tail −15.3%

Opportunity · 10 years−1.7rank 94 of 197 · 3 years: −0.7

Best case+13100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 1 of 10

Shock absorbed24%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.06expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of exports going to china and the united states; land border with russia or belarus; no coastline; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; consumer price inflation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Mongolia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.95

Global financial crisis S03−0.85

Pandemic S14−0.85

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.77

Energy supply shock S09−0.74

AI diffusion shock S13−0.72

Chokepoint closure S05−0.70

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.64

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.62

Disaster in the core S10−0.41

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.40

Food and water shock S11−0.30

Hybrid campaign S06−0.29

Mass displacement S08−0.11

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.92	−0.95	−1.21	−0.54	▼ 7	15	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.78	−0.85	−1.14	−0.50	▼ 4	13	Investment Attraction & Projection 3.6 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	High 0.74	−0.85	−1.11	−0.50	▼ 4	12	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.5 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.70	−0.77	−0.96	−0.43	▼ 1	11	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.76	−0.74	−0.96	−0.42	▲ 1	11	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.73	−0.72	−0.95	−0.42	▼ 4	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.79	−0.70	−0.90	−0.40	▼ 5	12	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.91	−0.64	−0.83	−0.38	▼ 4	10	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.59	−0.62	−0.84	−0.37	▼ 2	9	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.56	−0.41	−0.61	−0.27	0	4	Energy Infrastructure 4.4 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.60	−0.40	−0.59	−0.26	▲ 2	5	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.1 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.31	−0.30	−0.41	−0.18	▲ 3	5	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.8 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.35	−0.29	−0.37	−0.16	▼ 2	5	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.19	−0.11	−0.17	−0.07	▲ 4	2	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.80	−0.53	−0.43	·	−1.25	−1.20	−1.25	−1.22	−1.83
Global financial crisis	−0.39	−0.43	−0.34	−0.86	−0.86	−1.08	−1.44	−1.23	−0.99
Pandemic	−0.78	−0.46	−0.34	−1.12	−0.98	−1.05	−0.98	−0.96	−0.96
Infrastructure collapse	−0.77	−1.17	−0.38	−0.42	−0.42	−1.05	−0.98	−0.96	−0.84
Energy supply shock	−0.16	−1.04	−0.35	−0.43	−0.43	−0.97	−1.16	−1.11	−0.99
AI diffusion shock	−0.76	−0.41	−0.33	−1.10	−0.82	−1.13	−0.96	−0.53	−0.47
Chokepoint closure	−0.09	−1.19	−0.82	·	−0.53	−1.14	−0.46	−0.91	−1.18
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.89	−0.36	−0.41	−0.57	·	−1.16	·	−1.18	−1.18
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.06	−0.52	−0.26	−0.72	−0.64	−0.89	−1.07	−0.64	−0.74
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.85	−0.23	−0.63	−0.28	−0.71	−0.38	−0.28	−0.28
Legitimacy crisis	−0.28	·	−0.54	−0.30	−0.71	−0.98	−0.81	·	·
Food and water shock	−0.03	−0.35	−0.14	−0.42	−0.40	−0.43	−0.20	−0.35	−0.39
Hybrid campaign	−0.22	−0.49	−0.45	·	−0.54	−0.51	·	−0.20	−0.20
Mass displacement	·	−0.11	−0.08	−0.23	−0.19	−0.26	−0.11	−0.01	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Mongolia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+12.5

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.5

Middle East settlement S21+5.7

Digital state leapfrog S23+1.6

Emerging-market breakout S20−0.3

Energy abundance S16−2.5

Great-power détente S18−4.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−5.5

Yield revolution S22−7.2

Superintelligence takeoff S15−16.6

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+12.5	15.5	3.0	23	79	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.5	10.4	2.9	41	52	Financial Regulation & Integrity 7.5 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+5.7	15.4	9.6	32	110	Energy Infrastructure 5.5 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+1.6	12.7	11.1	23	66	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	−0.3	18.3	18.6	31	156	Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	−2.5	13.1	15.7	19	141	Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−4.3	20.3	24.6	26	131	Export Capability & Sophistication 4.7 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−5.5	15.7	21.1	24	107	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−7.2	6.7	13.9	21	132	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−16.6	10.8	27.5	15	84	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception