Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · GIN

Guinea

Baseline index 3.15Rank 168 of 197NascentAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years40.9rank 28 of 197 · 3 years: 42.7
Worst case−32.8%Energy supply shock · tail −28.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.2rank 127 of 197 · 3 years: −8.7
Best case+11Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed14%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.24expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; staple foods among the top five imports; consumer price inflation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Guinea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.03
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.85
Food and water shock S11−0.80
Chokepoint closure S05−0.74
Global financial crisis S03−0.73
Pandemic S14−0.69
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.66
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.64
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.61
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.52
AI diffusion shock S13−0.46
Mass displacement S08−0.41
Disaster in the core S10−0.34
Hybrid campaign S06−0.20
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.96−1.03−1.20−0.53▼ 528Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.70−0.85−0.99−0.44▼ 320Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.8 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.73−0.80−0.96−0.42▼ 221Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 1.9 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.75−0.74−0.87−0.39▼ 214Maritime Power 0.1 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.59−0.73−0.85−0.37▲ 318Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.2 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.55−0.69−0.79−0.36▲ 116Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.56−0.66−0.74−0.33018Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.76−0.64−0.73−0.33▼ 216Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.4 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.55−0.61−0.70−0.31▼ 215Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.71−0.52−0.60−0.28011Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.41−0.46−0.51−0.23▲ 310Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.56−0.41−0.49−0.2209Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.6 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.38−0.34−0.41−0.18▲ 37Energy Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.21−0.20−0.23−0.10▲ 33Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.04−1.47−0.55−0.61−0.61−1.38−1.64−1.58−1.40
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.71−0.40−0.99−0.89−1.23−1.49−0.89−1.02
Food and water shock−0.04−0.91−0.41−1.12−1.07−1.14−0.53−0.91−1.05
Chokepoint closure−0.04−1.24−0.99·−0.56−1.20−0.48−0.96−1.23
Global financial crisis−0.21−0.38−0.34−0.75−0.75−0.94−1.26−1.08−0.86
Pandemic−0.33−0.40−0.32−0.96−0.84−0.90−0.84−0.82−0.82
Infrastructure collapse−0.32−1.05−0.38−0.38−0.38−0.94−0.88−0.86−0.75
Legitimacy crisis−0.24·−0.92−0.49−1.15−1.61−1.32··
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.28−0.36−0.32·−0.83−0.80−0.83−0.82−1.22
Single-supplier cut-off−0.35−0.32−0.41−0.50·−1.01·−1.03−1.03
AI diffusion shock−0.25−0.28−0.25−0.74−0.55−0.76−0.65−0.36−0.32
Mass displacement·−0.42−0.31−0.85−0.70−0.96−0.41−0.05·
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.70−0.21−0.52−0.23−0.59−0.31−0.23−0.23
Hybrid campaign−0.10−0.34−0.36·−0.37−0.35·−0.14−0.14

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Guinea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+10.8
Sovereign debt reset S19+7.4
Yield revolution S22+6.4
Middle East settlement S21+1.3
Great-power détente S18+0.5
Energy abundance S16−0.9
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−3.4
100-day pandemic defence S24−6.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−13.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−23.5
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+10.816.35.41974Technical & Vocational Skills 3.5 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+7.411.33.92153Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+6.410.54.11249Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+1.311.910.620132Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+0.58.47.916107Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed−0.98.69.510132Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−3.49.913.313101Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−6.25.712.012178Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−13.510.423.912172Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−23.52.426.07128Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception