Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years45.6rank 22 of 197 · 3 years: 44.8
Worst case−43.4%Food and water shock · tail −38.3%
Opportunity · 10 years−10.0rank 157 of 197 · 3 years: −12.5
Best case+8Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed10%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.03expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Comoros’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Food and water shock S11−0.99
Energy supply shock S09−0.97
Chokepoint closure S05−0.66
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.64
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.60
Pandemic S14−0.59
Global financial crisis S03−0.56
Disaster in the core S10−0.53
AI diffusion shock S13−0.53
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.50
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.34
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.28
Mass displacement S08−0.23
Hybrid campaign S06−0.16
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.91 | −0.99 | −1.13 | −0.51 | ▼ 7 | 18 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.91 | −0.97 | −1.04 | −0.49 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.69 | −0.66 | −0.71 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.56 | −0.64 | −0.69 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.48 | −0.60 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.5 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.48 | −0.59 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.45 | −0.56 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0.5 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.59 | −0.53 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.49 | −0.53 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.64 | −0.50 | −0.57 | −0.26 | 0 | 12 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.45 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.16 | 0 | 5 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.25 | −0.28 | −0.31 | −0.14 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.32 | −0.23 | −0.27 | −0.12 | ▲ 2 | 4 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.17 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.08 | ▲ 1 | 3 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.99 | −0.40 | −1.45 | −1.35 | −1.48 | −0.69 | −1.16 | −1.36 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.18 | −0.41 | −0.62 | −0.62 | −1.41 | −1.67 | −1.46 | −1.31 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.05 | −0.52 | · | −0.55 | −1.19 | −0.48 | −0.95 | −1.19 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.11 | −1.04 | −0.30 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.97 | −0.91 | −0.89 | −0.78 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.71 | −0.64 | −0.87 | −1.06 | −0.64 | −0.73 |
| Pandemic | −0.11 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.86 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.10 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −0.74 | −0.99 | −0.85 | −0.68 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.07 | −0.26 | −0.83 | −0.37 | −0.93 | −0.50 | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.11 | −0.34 | −0.24 | −0.90 | −0.68 | −0.93 | −0.79 | −0.44 | −0.39 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.11 | · | −0.57 | −0.42 | −0.97 | −1.35 | −1.11 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.35 | · | −0.71 | · | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.12 | · | −0.40 | −0.39 | −0.40 | −0.39 | −0.59 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.49 | −0.40 | −0.55 | −0.23 | −0.03 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.24 | · | −0.32 | −0.30 | · | −0.12 | −0.12 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Comoros is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+7.6
Energy abundance S16+4.6
Yield revolution S22+2.2
Sovereign debt reset S19+1.7
Middle East settlement S21+1.1
Great-power détente S18−5.6
100-day pandemic defence S24−9.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−12.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−17.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−29.9
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +7.6 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 12 | 93 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +4.6 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 7 | 118 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +2.2 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 7 | 82 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 17 | 122 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +1.1 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 14 | 134 | Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −5.6 | 2.7 | 8.3 | 11 | 143 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −9.2 | 3.2 | 12.4 | 8 | 189 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −12.2 | 6.5 | 18.6 | 8 | 142 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −17.6 | 6.8 | 24.4 | 8 | 182 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −29.9 | 1.8 | 31.7 | 5 | 161 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |