Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · TCD

Chad

Baseline index 2.26Rank 184 of 197InceptionAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years45.7rank 21 of 197 · 3 years: 46.2
Worst case−40.7%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −34.3%
Opportunity · 10 years−16.9rank 189 of 197 · 3 years: −18.4
Best case+6Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed10%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.04expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, Mass displacement. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; refugees hosted per head of population; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Chad’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.92
Mass displacement S08−0.75
Global financial crisis S03−0.66
Food and water shock S11−0.63
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.60
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.56
Pandemic S14−0.52
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.50
Energy supply shock S09−0.42
Disaster in the core S10−0.40
AI diffusion shock S13−0.39
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.38
Chokepoint closure S05−0.25
Hybrid campaign S06−0.22
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.74−0.92−1.03−0.46▼ 318Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 1.00−0.75−0.85−0.38▼ 717Foundational Education 0.6 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.53−0.66−0.75−0.33▲ 217Economic Output & Productivity 0.6 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.55−0.63−0.71−0.31▲ 215Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.72−0.60−0.66−0.30▼ 116Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.1 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.47−0.56−0.60−0.27▲ 117Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.41−0.52−0.57−0.25▲ 314Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.69−0.50−0.55−0.25▼ 211Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09Medium 0.37−0.42−0.47−0.20▲ 316Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.42−0.40−0.46−0.20015Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Low 0.35−0.39−0.41−0.19▲ 314Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Low 0.34−0.38−0.42−0.19▲ 111Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Low 0.24−0.25−0.28−0.12▲ 48Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.24−0.22−0.24−0.1108Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Sovereign funding crisis−0.02−0.76−0.39−1.08−0.98−1.34−1.63−0.98−1.12
Mass displacement·−0.79−0.52−1.57−1.26−1.80−0.76−0.09·
Global financial crisis−0.09−0.35−0.28−0.69−0.69−0.87−1.16−0.99−0.79
Food and water shock−0.02−0.73−0.29−0.90−0.85−0.92−0.43−0.73−0.84
Legitimacy crisis−0.09·−0.84−0.48−1.13−1.57−1.29··
Infrastructure collapse−0.09−0.93−0.30−0.33−0.33−0.83−0.78−0.76−0.67
Pandemic−0.09−0.31−0.22−0.75−0.66−0.70−0.66−0.64−0.64
Single-supplier cut-off−0.09−0.33−0.37−0.52·−1.05·−1.06−1.06
Energy supply shock−0.02−0.60−0.20−0.25−0.25−0.57−0.67−0.65−0.57
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.84−0.22−0.62−0.28−0.70−0.37−0.28−0.28
AI diffusion shock−0.09−0.24−0.19−0.65−0.49−0.67−0.57−0.31−0.28
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.09−0.23−0.19·−0.54−0.52−0.54−0.53−0.80
Chokepoint closure−0.02−0.42−0.29·−0.19−0.41−0.16−0.32−0.42
Hybrid campaign−0.06−0.38−0.35·−0.43−0.40·−0.16−0.16

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Chad is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+6.1
Sovereign debt reset S19+5.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+2.4
Yield revolution S22−0.5
Great-power détente S18−4.5
100-day pandemic defence S24−10.6
Digital state leapfrog S23−19.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.2
Middle East settlement S21−44.9
Energy abundance S16−77.8
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+6.19.43.311109Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+5.79.84.11673Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+2.45.53.1775Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−0.53.84.36104Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−4.53.98.411135Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Loser−10.62.212.86191Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−19.56.125.76187Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−20.21.321.5498Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−44.94.249.112194Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−77.81.279.06196Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception