Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years17.9rank 100 of 197 · 3 years: 16.9
Worst case−13.8%Global financial crisis · tail −13.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.9rank 137 of 197 · 3 years: −5.6
Best case+7Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed25%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.82expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; youth unemployment rate; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; services as a share of gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Barbados’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Global financial crisis S03−0.77
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.74
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.66
AI diffusion shock S13−0.66
Pandemic S14−0.66
Energy supply shock S09−0.65
Chokepoint closure S05−0.48
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.42
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.42
Food and water shock S11−0.40
Disaster in the core S10−0.37
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.26
Hybrid campaign S06−0.21
Mass displacement S08−0.18
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.75 | −0.77 | −1.07 | −0.47 | ▼ 2 | 11 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.70 | −0.74 | −0.90 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.65 | −0.66 | −0.92 | −0.40 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.72 | −0.66 | −0.88 | −0.40 | 0 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.61 | −0.66 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.64 | −0.65 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.50 | −0.48 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.41 | −0.42 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.65 | −0.42 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 4 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.4 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.43 | −0.40 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.54 | −0.37 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 3.7 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.36 | −0.26 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 5 | 4 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.24 | −0.21 | −0.24 | −0.11 | ▲ 2 | 6 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.33 | −0.18 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▲ 1 | 4 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis | −0.23 | −0.40 | −0.28 | −0.80 | −0.80 | −1.00 | −1.34 | −1.14 | −0.92 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.40 | −1.18 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.98 | −0.86 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.07 | −0.56 | −0.24 | −0.77 | −0.70 | −0.96 | −1.16 | −0.70 | −0.80 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.28 | −1.07 | −0.80 | −1.10 | −0.93 | −0.51 | −0.46 |
| Pandemic | −0.36 | −0.38 | −0.24 | −0.92 | −0.81 | −0.86 | −0.81 | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.10 | −0.92 | −0.27 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.87 | −1.04 | −1.00 | −0.89 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.06 | −0.82 | −0.56 | · | −0.37 | −0.79 | −0.31 | −0.63 | −0.81 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.17 | · | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.57 | −0.56 | −0.84 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.19 | · | −0.52 | −0.33 | −0.77 | −1.07 | −0.87 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.05 | −0.46 | −0.16 | −0.57 | −0.54 | −0.58 | −0.27 | −0.46 | −0.53 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.77 | −0.18 | −0.57 | −0.26 | −0.64 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.25 | · | −0.50 | · | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.09 | −0.37 | −0.31 | · | −0.41 | −0.38 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.39 | −0.32 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.02 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Barbados is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+6.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+6.5
100-day pandemic defence S24+4.3
Energy abundance S16−1.1
Middle East settlement S21−2.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−3.1
Great-power détente S18−8.5
Yield revolution S22−15.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−21.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−25.3
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 31 | 96 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +6.5 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 44 | 62 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +4.3 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 20 | 111 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | −1.1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 17 | 134 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −2.7 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 28 | 152 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 4 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −3.1 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 21 | 97 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −8.5 | 9.8 | 18.2 | 24 | 157 | Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −15.2 | 5.6 | 20.8 | 19 | 168 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.7 | 10.4 | 32.0 | 22 | 173 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −25.3 | 7.5 | 32.7 | 14 | 137 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |