Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · AGO

Angola

Baseline index 4.60Rank 129 of 197NascentAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years26.5rank 68 of 197 · 3 years: 27.4
Worst case−18.1%Infrastructure collapse · tail −17.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−9.2rank 151 of 197 · 3 years: −10.0
Best case+10Biomedical breakthroughs · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed20%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.07expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; share of population aged under 15; industry as a share of gdp; low life expectancy at birth; consumer price inflation; youth unemployment rate; staple foods among the top five imports; public debt relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Angola’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.83
Food and water shock S11−0.82
Global financial crisis S03−0.78
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.77
Pandemic S14−0.74
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.73
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.59
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.58
AI diffusion shock S13−0.53
Disaster in the core S10−0.46
Mass displacement S08−0.43
Energy supply shock S09−0.39
Chokepoint closure S05−0.26
Hybrid campaign S06−0.22
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.73−0.83−0.98−0.45▲ 116Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.80−0.82−1.06−0.46▼ 516Population Health 2.5 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.67−0.78−0.99−0.44▲ 214Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2.2 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.95−0.77−0.96−0.42▼ 317Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.7 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.59−0.74−0.88−0.40▲ 315Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.65−0.73−0.93−0.41▲ 114Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.1 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.54−0.59−0.73−0.33012Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.83−0.58−0.75−0.35▼ 110Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.47−0.53−0.62−0.28▲ 514Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.54−0.46−0.58−0.26▼ 112National Resilience & Crisis Management 3.9 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08High 0.62−0.43−0.55−0.24011Health System Capability 4.2 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09Medium 0.39−0.39−0.51−0.22▲ 89Energy Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Low 0.29−0.26−0.35−0.15▲ 97Maritime Power 3.1 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.24−0.22−0.26−0.11▲ 44Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.69−1.28−0.46−0.46−0.46−1.14−1.06−1.04−0.91
Food and water shock−0.09−0.94−0.42−1.14−1.09−1.17−0.55−0.94−1.07
Global financial crisis−0.35−0.39−0.35−0.79−0.79−0.99−1.31−1.13−0.90
Legitimacy crisis−0.48·−1.15−0.58−1.34−1.87−1.54··
Pandemic−0.63−0.41−0.33−0.98−0.86−0.92−0.86−0.84−0.84
Sovereign funding crisis−0.08−0.61−0.34−0.85−0.76−1.05−1.27−0.76−0.87
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.54−0.33−0.29·−0.76−0.73−0.76−0.74−1.12
Single-supplier cut-off−0.71−0.33−0.43−0.53·−1.07·−1.09−1.09
AI diffusion shock−0.56−0.30−0.27−0.80−0.60−0.83−0.70−0.39−0.34
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.94−0.28−0.70−0.31−0.78−0.42−0.31−0.31
Mass displacement·−0.44−0.33−0.89−0.73−1.00−0.42−0.05·
Energy supply shock−0.09−0.55−0.21−0.23−0.23−0.52−0.61−0.59−0.52
Chokepoint closure−0.03−0.43−0.37·−0.19−0.42−0.17−0.33−0.43
Hybrid campaign−0.16−0.35−0.38·−0.39−0.37·−0.15−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Angola is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+9.8
Yield revolution S22+8.6
Sovereign debt reset S19+7.9
Emerging-market breakout S20+7.4
Great-power détente S18+5.7
100-day pandemic defence S24−3.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−8.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−28.7
Middle East settlement S21−33.4
Energy abundance S16−64.7
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+9.811.71.91443Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+8.612.43.81538Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+7.911.33.42941Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+7.419.912.52494Technical & Vocational Skills 4 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+5.712.66.92474Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−3.77.311.014162Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−8.513.522.016135Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−28.74.333.010156Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−33.48.441.829183Energy Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−64.73.167.915184Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception