Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years10.4rank 147 of 197 · 3 years: 11.0
Worst case−7.4%Energy supply shock · tail −7.1%
Opportunity · 10 years+11.8rank 39 of 197 · 3 years: +12.3
Best case+38Energy abundance · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed42%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.55expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; few months of imports covered by reserves; share of population aged 65 and over; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Slovenia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.77
Pandemic S14−0.75
Global financial crisis S03−0.69
Chokepoint closure S05−0.65
AI diffusion shock S13−0.61
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.60
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.56
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.51
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.49
Hybrid campaign S06−0.37
Disaster in the core S10−0.30
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.21
Mass displacement S08−0.21
Food and water shock S11−0.11
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.97 | −0.77 | −1.25 | −0.55 | 0 | 17 | Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.85 | −0.75 | −1.31 | −0.57 | 0 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.5 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.85 | −0.69 | −1.27 | −0.55 | 0 | 15 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9.3 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.84 | −0.65 | −1.00 | −0.44 | 0 | 16 | Maritime Power 1.3 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.80 | −0.61 | −1.10 | −0.48 | 0 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.68 | −0.60 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.67 | −0.56 | −0.94 | −0.41 | 0 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.87 | −0.51 | −0.88 | −0.38 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.61 | −0.49 | −0.89 | −0.39 | 0 | 11 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.2 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.54 | −0.37 | −0.59 | −0.26 | 0 | 10 | Maritime Power 2 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.57 | −0.30 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 10.7 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.38 | −0.21 | −0.39 | −0.17 | ▲ 2 | 3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.4 · Foundational |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.48 | −0.21 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 3 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12.2 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.16 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.09 | 0 | 1 | Resource Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.18 | −1.08 | −0.40 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −1.01 | −1.20 | −1.15 | −1.03 |
| Pandemic | −0.80 | −0.40 | −0.33 | −0.97 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.85 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.31 | −0.70 | −0.70 | −0.87 | −1.16 | −0.99 | −0.79 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.07 | −0.91 | · | −0.48 | −1.03 | −0.41 | −0.83 | −1.06 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.80 | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.88 | −0.66 | −0.91 | −0.77 | −0.43 | −0.38 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.74 | −0.87 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.72 | −0.71 | −0.62 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.72 | −0.30 | −0.27 | · | −0.70 | −0.67 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −1.02 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.99 | −0.27 | −0.34 | −0.42 | · | −0.85 | · | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.05 | −0.41 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.51 | −0.70 | −0.85 | −0.51 | −0.58 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.28 | −0.61 | −0.66 | · | −0.67 | −0.63 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.63 | −0.19 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.52 | −0.28 | −0.21 | −0.21 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.15 | · | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.49 | −0.40 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.43 | −0.36 | −0.49 | −0.21 | −0.03 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.15 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Slovenia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+38.2
100-day pandemic defence S24+37.2
Middle East settlement S21+26.7
Great-power détente S18+18.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15+8.0
Digital state leapfrog S23+3.0
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.5
Yield revolution S22−1.5
Emerging-market breakout S20−3.9
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−5.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +38.2 | 43.6 | 5.4 | 44 | 23 | Energy Technologies 5.8 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +37.2 | 39.2 | 2.0 | 50 | 31 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +26.7 | 30.5 | 3.8 | 51 | 34 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +18.2 | 29.9 | 11.7 | 50 | 38 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | +8.0 | 24.4 | 16.4 | 35 | 32 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.2 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +3.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 47 | 59 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.5 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 64 | 132 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 12.3 · Established |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 51 | 107 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −3.9 | 11.5 | 15.5 | 58 | 172 | Investment Attraction & Projection 10.7 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −5.1 | 22.3 | 27.4 | 53 | 106 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |