Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years52.3rank 14 of 197 · 3 years: 52.1
Worst case−37.0%Pandemic · tail −35.7%
Opportunity · 10 years−13.8rank 178 of 197 · 3 years: −12.9
Best case+4Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed11%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.28expected index points from best practice
Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: adult obesity rate; remittances relative to gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Marshall Islands’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Pandemic S14−0.92
Global financial crisis S03−0.91
Chokepoint closure S05−0.83
Energy supply shock S09−0.83
AI diffusion shock S13−0.81
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.76
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.66
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.64
Disaster in the core S10−0.53
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.46
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.45
Food and water shock S11−0.35
Hybrid campaign S06−0.29
Mass displacement S08−0.18
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.77 | −0.92 | −1.03 | −0.46 | ▼ 4 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.73 | −0.91 | −0.98 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 11 | Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.92 | −0.83 | −0.91 | −0.43 | ▼ 2 | 11 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.77 | −0.83 | −0.90 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.78 | −0.81 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.68 | −0.76 | −0.82 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.62 | −0.66 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▼ 4 | 6 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.51 | −0.64 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.6 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.61 | −0.53 | −0.63 | −0.28 | 0 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.65 | −0.46 | −0.55 | −0.25 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.63 | −0.45 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▼ 1 | 5 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.33 | −0.35 | −0.42 | −0.19 | ▲ 4 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.14 | 0 | 4 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 4 | 5 | Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | −0.11 | −0.56 | −0.27 | −1.35 | −1.18 | −1.27 | −1.19 | −1.16 | −1.16 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.11 | −0.50 | −0.26 | −0.99 | −0.99 | −1.24 | −1.65 | −1.28 | −1.13 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.31 | −0.41 | · | −0.73 | −1.56 | −0.62 | −1.21 | −1.60 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.05 | −0.28 | −0.53 | −0.53 | −1.19 | −1.41 | −1.21 | −1.21 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.11 | −0.52 | −0.28 | −1.40 | −1.05 | −1.45 | −1.23 | −0.68 | −0.60 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.11 | −1.23 | −0.25 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −1.17 | −1.10 | −1.05 | −0.94 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.11 | −0.41 | −0.23 | · | −0.96 | −0.93 | −0.96 | −0.94 | −1.41 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.76 | −0.68 | −0.94 | −1.14 | −0.68 | −0.78 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.08 | −0.22 | −0.84 | −0.38 | −0.94 | −0.50 | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.11 | · | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.93 | −1.29 | −1.06 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.48 | · | −0.97 | · | −0.99 | −0.99 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.50 | −0.48 | −0.51 | −0.24 | −0.41 | −0.47 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.07 | −0.55 | −0.33 | · | −0.61 | −0.57 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.39 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.02 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Marshall Islands is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+4.1
100-day pandemic defence S24+2.1
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.5
Middle East settlement S21−4.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−9.6
Energy abundance S16−13.7
Yield revolution S22−14.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−22.7
Great-power détente S18−25.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15−43.7
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +4.1 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 15 | 127 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 1.8 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +2.1 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 8 | 126 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.5 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 18 | 134 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −4.9 | 7.6 | 12.5 | 18 | 158 | Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 5.6 | 15.2 | 9 | 149 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −13.7 | 6.3 | 20.0 | 7 | 158 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −14.7 | 2.8 | 17.5 | 7 | 166 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.7 | 6.3 | 29.0 | 9 | 176 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −25.9 | 6.2 | 32.1 | 13 | 192 | Export Capability & Sophistication 1.7 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −43.7 | 3.8 | 47.5 | 6 | 192 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |