Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Gulf and Middle East · IRN

Iran

Baseline index 8.17Rank 65 of 197FoundationalGulf and Middle EastAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years11.7rank 138 of 197 · 3 years: 10.7
Worst case−9.3%Food and water shock · tail −8.2%
Opportunity · 10 years+1.1rank 80 of 197 · 3 years: −1.8
Best case+25Yield revolution · gainer in 3 of 10
Shock absorbed32%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.68expected index points from best practice
Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; refugees hosted per head of population; consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate; urban share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Iran’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Food and water shock S11−0.76
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.66
AI diffusion shock S13−0.60
Mass displacement S08−0.57
Pandemic S14−0.55
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.54
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.53
Disaster in the core S10−0.48
Global financial crisis S03−0.47
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.45
Hybrid campaign S06−0.31
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.29
Chokepoint closure S05−0.28
Energy supply shock S09−0.15
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Food and water shock S11High 0.87−0.76−1.16−0.51▼ 419Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.6 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.72−0.66−1.05−0.46016Financial Stability & Crisis Management 3.3 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.61−0.60−0.84−0.37015Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.98−0.57−0.88−0.38▼ 311Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Pandemic S14Medium 0.54−0.55−0.84−0.37014Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.4 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.67−0.54−0.70−0.31▼ 214Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.8 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.46−0.53−0.67−0.29▼ 211Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10High 0.68−0.48−0.75−0.33▼ 311Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.8 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.39−0.47−0.59−0.26▼ 110Financial Stability & Crisis Management 3.7 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.43−0.45−0.62−0.27▼ 112Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.46−0.31−0.52−0.23▼ 110Sensing, Timing & Navigation 7.6 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.46−0.29−0.47−0.2108Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.1 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.39−0.28−0.47−0.2107Economic Leverage & Dependence 7 · Foundational
Energy supply shock S09Low 0.17−0.15−0.23−0.10▲ 24Monetary & Currency Capability 5.7 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Food and water shock−0.09−0.86−0.43−1.05−1.00−1.07−0.50−0.86−0.98
Infrastructure collapse−0.82−0.96−0.38−0.34−0.34−0.86−0.80−0.78−0.69
AI diffusion shock−0.78−0.32−0.32−0.86−0.65−0.89−0.75−0.42−0.37
Mass displacement·−0.57−0.48−1.16−0.95−1.31−0.56−0.07·
Pandemic−0.58−0.29−0.26−0.70−0.61−0.66−0.61−0.60−0.60
Legitimacy crisis−0.39·−0.86−0.39−0.91−1.27−1.04··
Sovereign funding crisis−0.05−0.44−0.27−0.61−0.55−0.75−0.91−0.55−0.62
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.99−0.33−0.74−0.33−0.83−0.44−0.33−0.33
Global financial crisis−0.23−0.23−0.23−0.47−0.47−0.59−0.78−0.67−0.54
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.57−0.24−0.24·−0.56−0.54−0.56−0.54−0.82
Hybrid campaign−0.23−0.50−0.58·−0.55−0.52·−0.21−0.21
Single-supplier cut-off−0.56−0.15−0.22−0.24·−0.49·−0.49−0.49
Chokepoint closure−0.03−0.45−0.42·−0.20−0.44−0.17−0.35−0.45
Energy supply shock−0.03−0.20−0.08−0.08−0.08−0.19−0.22−0.22−0.19

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Iran is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Yield revolution S22+25.1
100-day pandemic defence S24+21.6
Middle East settlement S21+13.1
Emerging-market breakout S20+5.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+2.6
Great-power détente S18+0.8
Sovereign debt reset S19−0.5
Digital state leapfrog S23−5.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−12.0
Energy abundance S16−21.9
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Yield revolution S22 ↗Gainer+25.128.33.2405Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+21.626.44.74957Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+13.130.517.44467Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+5.817.111.335113Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+2.623.921.34174Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+0.812.411.729104Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−0.56.06.529151Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−5.715.421.131111Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−12.017.829.83069Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−21.95.927.840164Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational