Saint Vincent & Grenadines · Results

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years33.4rank 45 of 197 · 3 years: 31.9

Worst case−23.6%Global financial crisis · tail −22.7%

Opportunity · 10 years−10.8rank 160 of 197 · 3 years: −10.0

Best case+8Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10

Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.15expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; staple foods among the top five imports; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Saint Vincent & Grenadines’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Global financial crisis S03−0.89

Energy supply shock S09−0.84

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.83

Pandemic S14−0.82

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.75

Food and water shock S11−0.74

AI diffusion shock S13−0.67

Chokepoint closure S05−0.64

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.54

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.50

Disaster in the core S10−0.50

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.33

Mass displacement S08−0.28

Hybrid campaign S06−0.21

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.79	−0.89	−1.10	−0.49	▼ 4	15	Investment Attraction & Projection 0.8 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.80	−0.84	−0.97	−0.44	▲ 1	17	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.77	−0.83	−0.95	−0.43	▼ 5	17	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.72	−0.82	−0.98	−0.44	▼ 4	17	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.67	−0.75	−0.94	−0.42	▼ 1	17	Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.73	−0.74	−0.92	−0.41	▼ 2	18	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.67	−0.67	−0.79	−0.36	▼ 2	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.68	−0.64	−0.72	−0.33	▲ 1	14	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.79	−0.54	−0.69	−0.32	0	9	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.47	−0.50	−0.58	−0.26	▲ 2	12	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.63	−0.50	−0.67	−0.30	0	10	Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.46	−0.33	−0.37	−0.17	▲ 4	6	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.43	−0.28	−0.37	−0.16	▲ 1	4	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.23	−0.21	−0.23	−0.10	▲ 1	5	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Global financial crisis	−0.16	−0.46	−0.31	−0.94	−0.94	−1.18	−1.57	−1.34	−1.08
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−1.09	−0.33	−0.52	−0.52	−1.17	−1.38	−1.33	−1.18
Infrastructure collapse	−0.17	−1.33	−0.38	−0.50	−0.50	−1.25	−1.17	−1.14	−1.00
Pandemic	−0.17	−0.48	−0.29	−1.19	−1.05	−1.12	−1.05	−1.02	−1.02
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.63	−0.26	−0.89	−0.80	−1.10	−1.33	−0.80	−0.91
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.81	−0.29	−1.06	−1.01	−1.09	−0.51	−0.87	−0.99
AI diffusion shock	−0.17	−0.41	−0.28	−1.12	−0.84	−1.16	−0.98	−0.54	−0.48
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−1.04	−0.56	·	−0.52	−1.11	−0.44	−0.88	−1.14
Legitimacy crisis	−0.16	·	−0.58	−0.44	−1.04	−1.45	−1.19	·	·
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.17	−0.30	−0.21	·	−0.71	−0.68	−0.71	−0.69	−1.04
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−1.02	−0.24	−0.79	−0.35	−0.88	−0.47	−0.35	−0.35
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.17	−0.21	−0.20	−0.33	·	−0.67	·	−0.68	−0.68
Mass displacement	·	−0.29	−0.17	−0.58	−0.48	−0.66	−0.28	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.06	−0.37	−0.30	·	−0.41	−0.39	·	−0.15	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Saint Vincent & Grenadines is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+7.7

Sovereign debt reset S19+4.2

Middle East settlement S21+1.8

Emerging-market breakout S20+1.1

100-day pandemic defence S24+1.0

Digital state leapfrog S23−8.6

Great-power détente S18−14.6

Yield revolution S22−16.0

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−29.0

Superintelligence takeoff S15−36.8

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+7.7	9.2	1.5	10	103	Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+4.2	7.6	3.4	31	87	Financial Regulation & Integrity 5.8 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+1.8	9.1	7.3	22	126	Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+1.1	9.3	8.2	20	147	Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+1.0	8.1	7.1	13	137	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−8.6	7.6	16.3	15	139	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Loser	−14.6	7.0	21.6	16	174	Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−16.0	7.5	23.5	12	172	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−29.0	7.8	36.8	15	191	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−36.8	4.7	41.5	9	182	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception