Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years4.0rank 194 of 197 · 3 years: 3.8
Worst case−3.4%Infrastructure collapse · tail −3.3%
Opportunity · 10 years+20.5rank 24 of 197 · 3 years: +22.6
Best case+52100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 7 of 10
Shock absorbed59%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.04expected index points from best practice
Breadth7 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkEnergy Infrastructureweakest point in 5 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate; urban share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; share of population aged 65 and over.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Australia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.51
AI diffusion shock S13−0.51
Pandemic S14−0.46
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.35
Global financial crisis S03−0.34
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.34
Disaster in the core S10−0.33
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.29
Energy supply shock S09−0.20
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.19
Chokepoint closure S05−0.18
Hybrid campaign S06−0.17
Food and water shock S11−0.13
Mass displacement S08−0.11
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.80 | −0.51 | −1.16 | −0.48 | 0 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 12.2 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.85 | −0.51 | −1.17 | −0.49 | 0 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.1 · Nascent |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.75 | −0.46 | −1.16 | −0.46 | 0 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.4 · Established |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.56 | −0.35 | −0.79 | −0.33 | 0 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.4 · Nascent |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.60 | −0.34 | −0.89 | −0.34 | 0 | 9 | Economic Output & Productivity 13.8 · Established |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.60 | −0.34 | −0.87 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 12.5 · Established |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.82 | −0.33 | −0.90 | −0.33 | 0 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 12.3 · Established |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.65 | −0.29 | −0.66 | −0.27 | 0 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.3 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.36 | −0.20 | −0.46 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Energy Technologies 11.3 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.46 | −0.19 | −0.47 | −0.19 | 0 | 4 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.8 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.39 | −0.18 | −0.46 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 12.8 · Established |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.39 | −0.17 | −0.43 | −0.17 | 0 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 12.8 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.26 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.13 | 0 | 7 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.4 · Established |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.35 | −0.11 | −0.31 | −0.11 | 0 | 3 | Labour & Employment 15.9 · Advanced |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.64 | −0.74 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.66 | −0.62 | −0.61 | −0.53 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.74 | −0.55 | −0.76 | −0.64 | −0.35 | −0.32 |
| Pandemic | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.60 | −0.52 | −0.56 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.17 | · | −0.43 | −0.41 | −0.43 | −0.42 | −0.63 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.57 | −0.49 | −0.39 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.36 | −0.49 | −0.59 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.68 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.23 | −0.56 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.56 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.24 | · | −0.48 | · | −0.49 | −0.49 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.05 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.26 | −0.31 | −0.30 | −0.26 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.14 | · | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.45 | −0.37 | · | · |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −0.30 | −0.25 | · | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.23 | −0.30 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.30 | · | −0.31 | −0.29 | · | −0.12 | −0.12 |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.17 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.01 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Australia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+51.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15+30.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+26.2
Great-power détente S18+24.3
Digital state leapfrog S23+22.1
Emerging-market breakout S20+19.9
Middle East settlement S21+10.0
Sovereign debt reset S19+5.4
Yield revolution S22−2.2
Energy abundance S16−4.2
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +51.7 | 52.7 | 1.0 | 76 | 15 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · Established |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +30.0 | 40.0 | 9.9 | 51 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +26.2 | 37.8 | 11.6 | 79 | 4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 · Advanced |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +24.3 | 33.6 | 9.3 | 70 | 21 | Export Capability & Sophistication 13.3 · Established |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +22.1 | 25.7 | 3.6 | 74 | 4 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 · Established |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +19.9 | 29.2 | 9.3 | 71 | 23 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +10.0 | 21.5 | 11.5 | 72 | 79 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 80 | 75 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −2.2 | 14.8 | 17.0 | 77 | 114 | Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | −4.2 | 17.8 | 22.0 | 66 | 144 | Energy Technologies 11.8 · Transitional |